In my KC/LAA ov 8 bet I have the offenses roughly equal, IN THIS PARTICULAR VENUE, withestimated NET GAME PITCHING value scored as worse than average (suggesting scoring!!) My capping suggests a game total of 9 runs (mean), but the "most probable range" (MPR) at 7 - 11 runs (with 9 runs being the center)
My MPR suggests the game total is very highly to fall somewhere within these:
7 8p 9 10 11
An over 8 bet means I would win outright on three of them, push on one (which is fine by me!) and lose only on one of the five!
This does not guarantee a winner! But if my run assessment is reasonably close to accurate [always the key, but my MPR offers a cushion] then I believe this stands a 60% chance of winning v. only a 20% chance of losing
Also, take note, that I strongly prefer totals on an integer (no 1/2 totals) because for example if I played an over 8.5 (rather than 8.0) then within my MPR, two would lose instead of just one in five. Over time this difference adds up!
Top of the 8th and I won the over
WINNER!
Looooong night ahead capping the new series and games for Friday.
1
Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:
In my KC/LAA ov 8 bet I have the offenses roughly equal, IN THIS PARTICULAR VENUE, withestimated NET GAME PITCHING value scored as worse than average (suggesting scoring!!) My capping suggests a game total of 9 runs (mean), but the "most probable range" (MPR) at 7 - 11 runs (with 9 runs being the center)
My MPR suggests the game total is very highly to fall somewhere within these:
7 8p 9 10 11
An over 8 bet means I would win outright on three of them, push on one (which is fine by me!) and lose only on one of the five!
This does not guarantee a winner! But if my run assessment is reasonably close to accurate [always the key, but my MPR offers a cushion] then I believe this stands a 60% chance of winning v. only a 20% chance of losing
Also, take note, that I strongly prefer totals on an integer (no 1/2 totals) because for example if I played an over 8.5 (rather than 8.0) then within my MPR, two would lose instead of just one in five. Over time this difference adds up!
Top of the 8th and I won the over
WINNER!
Looooong night ahead capping the new series and games for Friday.
Cubbies +120 Rockies +163 Cinci/SF ov 7 +102 Cinci TT ov 2.5 -135 LAD TT ov 4.5 +100 Cleve TT ov 3.5 -115 Phillies TT ov 4.5 -105 Phil/MIA ov 7 -138 Clv/CWS ov 7 -114
All these are *Best Bets: Tiggers +131 Yankees -118 Minny +101 Phillies -180 Cleveland -102 Brewers -118 Royals -110 Mariners -150 Dodgers -170 LAD/SD ov 7 -137 Tiggers TT ov 3.5 -115
1
Friday, May 10:
Cubbies +120 Rockies +163 Cinci/SF ov 7 +102 Cinci TT ov 2.5 -135 LAD TT ov 4.5 +100 Cleve TT ov 3.5 -115 Phillies TT ov 4.5 -105 Phil/MIA ov 7 -138 Clv/CWS ov 7 -114
All these are *Best Bets: Tiggers +131 Yankees -118 Minny +101 Phillies -180 Cleveland -102 Brewers -118 Royals -110 Mariners -150 Dodgers -170 LAD/SD ov 7 -137 Tiggers TT ov 3.5 -115
Here is my "adjusted" offensive edge in RPG each team has AT THE PLATE,
but these numbers DO NOT YET take into account today's opposing starters....it's just the bats.....you'll have to assess this edge against the starters each faces yourself....and then raise or lower the perceived edge, and look for value in the odds
Here is my "adjusted" offensive edge in RPG each team has AT THE PLATE,
but these numbers DO NOT YET take into account today's opposing starters....it's just the bats.....you'll have to assess this edge against the starters each faces yourself....and then raise or lower the perceived edge, and look for value in the odds
I am no expert, but for the benefit of the younger guys on the forum or lurking in the shadows, who are just getting their feet wet capping baseball, keep in mind that tomorrow (Saturday) there are 7 early games (DG after a NG)..... and often there are lineup changes to give a player a rest; frequently a catcher. So when you see a moneyline that looks particularly good ON A SATURDAY FOR AN EARLY GAME, you should ask yourself if that line is reflecting a player out of the lineup which YOU don't yet know about!
In these early games I either wait to see the pregame lineups confirmed before casting a bet, or I might make the bet overnight but being ready to buy back (or cancel) if I learn of a significant change that would impact my assessment for runs scored.
Now when managers make lineup changes depending on facing a lefty for example, that doesn't affect my assessed run estimates, or if anything, might increase it a sliver, since ostensibly the switch is an improvement against a certain type of pitcher.
1
I am no expert, but for the benefit of the younger guys on the forum or lurking in the shadows, who are just getting their feet wet capping baseball, keep in mind that tomorrow (Saturday) there are 7 early games (DG after a NG)..... and often there are lineup changes to give a player a rest; frequently a catcher. So when you see a moneyline that looks particularly good ON A SATURDAY FOR AN EARLY GAME, you should ask yourself if that line is reflecting a player out of the lineup which YOU don't yet know about!
In these early games I either wait to see the pregame lineups confirmed before casting a bet, or I might make the bet overnight but being ready to buy back (or cancel) if I learn of a significant change that would impact my assessment for runs scored.
Now when managers make lineup changes depending on facing a lefty for example, that doesn't affect my assessed run estimates, or if anything, might increase it a sliver, since ostensibly the switch is an improvement against a certain type of pitcher.
SEVEN early games today......DG/NG (Day Game following a Night Game) and I expect lineup changes to rest people will happen somewhere.
Often catchers are the ones given a day off.....although if they are very good at the plate the manager may just bump the DH if he isn't hitting well and the Catcher would take the DH, so no loss in estimate run production. The Orioles catcher is their top batter, so if he sits there will be a slight dropoff....
I am leaning to Orioles, Yankees and Phillies in the early games but have to confirm those lineups first!
The one bet I will post right now (Pinnacle) is NATIONALS +142
Personally, my stats indicate the wrong team is favored here! (unless of course there is some as yet undisclosed lineup change -- which could be the case) I have the NATS with a half-run edge in scoring after accounting for all game pitching! But even if I was off a little in my evaluation, this game appears to be no worse than a coin-flipper.......and NATS are getting some solid PLUS MONEY against a team no better than they are! So that one is bet already, and I can always buy it back should the pregame lineups deal a surprise.
0
SEVEN early games today......DG/NG (Day Game following a Night Game) and I expect lineup changes to rest people will happen somewhere.
Often catchers are the ones given a day off.....although if they are very good at the plate the manager may just bump the DH if he isn't hitting well and the Catcher would take the DH, so no loss in estimate run production. The Orioles catcher is their top batter, so if he sits there will be a slight dropoff....
I am leaning to Orioles, Yankees and Phillies in the early games but have to confirm those lineups first!
The one bet I will post right now (Pinnacle) is NATIONALS +142
Personally, my stats indicate the wrong team is favored here! (unless of course there is some as yet undisclosed lineup change -- which could be the case) I have the NATS with a half-run edge in scoring after accounting for all game pitching! But even if I was off a little in my evaluation, this game appears to be no worse than a coin-flipper.......and NATS are getting some solid PLUS MONEY against a team no better than they are! So that one is bet already, and I can always buy it back should the pregame lineups deal a surprise.
SEVEN early games today......DG/NG (Day Game following a Night Game) and I expect lineup changes to rest people will happen somewhere. Often catchers are the ones given a day off.....although if they are very good at the plate the manager may just bump the DH if he isn't hitting well and the Catcher would take the DH, so no loss in estimate run production. The Orioles catcher is their top batter, so if he sits there will be a slight dropoff.... I am leaning to Orioles, Yankees and Phillies in the early games but have to confirm those lineups first! The one bet I will post right now (Pinnacle) is NATIONALS +142 Personally, my stats indicate the wrong team is favored here! (unless of course there is some as yet undisclosed lineup change -- which could be the case) I have the NATS with a half-run edge in scoring after accounting for all game pitching! But even if I was off a little in my evaluation, this game appears to be no worse than a coin-flipper.......and NATS are getting some solid PLUS MONEY against a team no better than they are! So that one is bet already, and I can always buy it back should the pregame lineups deal a surprise.
Adding Brewers -165 *BB
0
Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:
SEVEN early games today......DG/NG (Day Game following a Night Game) and I expect lineup changes to rest people will happen somewhere. Often catchers are the ones given a day off.....although if they are very good at the plate the manager may just bump the DH if he isn't hitting well and the Catcher would take the DH, so no loss in estimate run production. The Orioles catcher is their top batter, so if he sits there will be a slight dropoff.... I am leaning to Orioles, Yankees and Phillies in the early games but have to confirm those lineups first! The one bet I will post right now (Pinnacle) is NATIONALS +142 Personally, my stats indicate the wrong team is favored here! (unless of course there is some as yet undisclosed lineup change -- which could be the case) I have the NATS with a half-run edge in scoring after accounting for all game pitching! But even if I was off a little in my evaluation, this game appears to be no worse than a coin-flipper.......and NATS are getting some solid PLUS MONEY against a team no better than they are! So that one is bet already, and I can always buy it back should the pregame lineups deal a surprise.
Start of my season results so far:
Today: Twinkies and KC/LAA ov 8 pending to count
.......to follow....
WARNING: HOT STREAKS alert!
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