Hit the big play of the day with the Rangers yesterday. Dropped 3 on the Night Capper though... picked up +4.75 unit$ overall.
Now, on to today - this will be my largest combined play of the year, thus far. It's a big play on David Price, a bigger fade on Luke Hochevar, and a cherry on top of it all with Mr. Over himself, Paul. freaking. Emmel behind the plate.
FYI - GiLz Package Play is 3+ plays on the same game.
= Not a hotter pitcher in the bigs then David Price. Not a hotter team in the bigs right now then the Tampa Bay Rays. Not a hotter OVER umpire in the bigs then Paul Emmel. You have these 3 key ingredients... and then The Kicker.
Luke Hochevar is one of my favorite pitchers to fade... and this fade is after he pitches a Quality Start; his last outing, -vs- the Athletics, he went 7IP giving up 3ER, making it a Quality Start.
Since 2010, here are Luke Hochevar's stats after he pitches a Quality Start:
9-17 / 5.62 ERA / 1.40 WHIP
YES - Luke Hochevar did pitch a complete game shutout -vs- the Rays back on June 25th of this year... but that was not the same Rays. And, that was @ Home. Luke Hochevar is a waaay different pitcher on the road away from Kauffman Stadium, and I've done some stat crunching since 2009. Check it out:
15-22 / 6.18 ERA / 1.49 WHIP
> His stats in 2 career starts @ The Trop: 0-1 / 9.31 ERA (9.2IP, 10ER) / 2.17 WHIP (16H, 4BB)
So, as you can see, my fade on Luke Hochevar is strong. And with the way the Ray-Rays are playing ball + David Price and his 2nd Half 5-0 record with an ERA @ 1.43 and a WHIP @ 0.90 + Mr. Emmel calling the game...
GiLz diggin' it...
Best of Luck today, Thread'ers.
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To remove first post, remove entire topic.
=*YTD*@+95.23unit$
Hit the big play of the day with the Rangers yesterday. Dropped 3 on the Night Capper though... picked up +4.75 unit$ overall.
Now, on to today - this will be my largest combined play of the year, thus far. It's a big play on David Price, a bigger fade on Luke Hochevar, and a cherry on top of it all with Mr. Over himself, Paul. freaking. Emmel behind the plate.
FYI - GiLz Package Play is 3+ plays on the same game.
= Not a hotter pitcher in the bigs then David Price. Not a hotter team in the bigs right now then the Tampa Bay Rays. Not a hotter OVER umpire in the bigs then Paul Emmel. You have these 3 key ingredients... and then The Kicker.
Luke Hochevar is one of my favorite pitchers to fade... and this fade is after he pitches a Quality Start; his last outing, -vs- the Athletics, he went 7IP giving up 3ER, making it a Quality Start.
Since 2010, here are Luke Hochevar's stats after he pitches a Quality Start:
9-17 / 5.62 ERA / 1.40 WHIP
YES - Luke Hochevar did pitch a complete game shutout -vs- the Rays back on June 25th of this year... but that was not the same Rays. And, that was @ Home. Luke Hochevar is a waaay different pitcher on the road away from Kauffman Stadium, and I've done some stat crunching since 2009. Check it out:
15-22 / 6.18 ERA / 1.49 WHIP
> His stats in 2 career starts @ The Trop: 0-1 / 9.31 ERA (9.2IP, 10ER) / 2.17 WHIP (16H, 4BB)
So, as you can see, my fade on Luke Hochevar is strong. And with the way the Ray-Rays are playing ball + David Price and his 2nd Half 5-0 record with an ERA @ 1.43 and a WHIP @ 0.90 + Mr. Emmel calling the game...
UNDERS have hit around 65% @ The Trop since the start of 2011 - one of the best UNDER parks in Baseball.
The Ray-Rays are 10-1 in their last 11 after scoring 5 or more the previous game.
The Ray-Rays are 13-3 in their last 16 after winning the previous game.
David Price is off 4 days of rest - but the Rays have won 69% of the games he's started off 4 days of rest since 2010.
Majority off all Rays/Royals trends point to the UNDER - if Paul Emmel wasn't 23-1 this year to the OVER, then I wouldn't be betting this UNDER based on the trends, Price, and ballpark.
Bed time.
Catch y'all in a few hours or so...
GiLz Thread'ers
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* Quick Notes:
UNDERS have hit around 65% @ The Trop since the start of 2011 - one of the best UNDER parks in Baseball.
The Ray-Rays are 10-1 in their last 11 after scoring 5 or more the previous game.
The Ray-Rays are 13-3 in their last 16 after winning the previous game.
David Price is off 4 days of rest - but the Rays have won 69% of the games he's started off 4 days of rest since 2010.
Majority off all Rays/Royals trends point to the UNDER - if Paul Emmel wasn't 23-1 this year to the OVER, then I wouldn't be betting this UNDER based on the trends, Price, and ballpark.
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