What's going down everyone!? Hope your day is going well.
At first glance, it might appear that the Yankees are overvalued tonight. Although after looking into it, I have them undervalued and here's why:
NY absolutely rakes right handed pitching. They lead MLB with a 253 avg/332 OBP/445 SLG/777 OPS. The Guardian's surprisingly rank 25th, with a 233 AVG/301 OBP/383 SLG/684 OPS. The Guardian's also hit poorly on the road - ranking 21st, while the Yankees rank 7th at home. Against righties, the bats have fallen even further South for Cleveland in the post season. They're hitting to a 193 AVG/253 OBP/295 SLG/548 OPS. While the Yankees have been better across the board at 226 AVG/339 OBP/368 SLG/707 OPS.
I'm a pretty big fan of Tanner Bibee and have backed him plenty of times. However, his 2024 advanced metrics have me questioning his ability to beat NY. While his ERA sits at 3.47, his Xfip is 4.22. The reason it's almost a point higher is because he has trouble keeping the ball on the ground, with a fly ball rate just under 50%. That's awfully high when you consider the pop in the Yankee lineup. He's faced the Yankees once and unsurprisingly, it didn't go well. They tagged him for a 353 AVG/450 OBP/588 SLG/1.038 OPS. Lastly and unfortunately for Tanner, the wind is projected to be blowing out to center at about 10 mph.
I emphasized Cleveland's inability to hit right handed pitching because tonight they get Gerrit Cole, one of the best right handed pitchers of his generation. I won't run down all of Cole's advanced metrics. I think it's pretty clear that they're really good. And although Cleveland's lineup has faced him several times, only Jose Ramirez sees him well. But who does Jose Ramirez not see well? Other than J.R., Cole has that lineup's number.
The implied probability that the Yankees win this game is 62.26%. Based on the above, I have it higher than that.
I've got the Yankees taking a 2-0 series lead tonight. Half my bet at -165 ML and half my bet at -110 (-1).
Cheers and BOL 
Go yanks !!
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