Posted:
#1
Looks like one of the
biggest traps I've ever seen! I get it, it's Kershaw and the Dodgers are on a hot streak, but
this isn't a huge mismatch. So far this year, no line of -275 or higher has
lost, and is due for a correction. Moreover, I just did a search of the
last 5 years of lines higher than -275. In general the line hits at a
rate of 81%, but when you look at just the month of June over 5 years,
the win rate of these lines is only 53%. It seems mid-June is the time,
historically, that these big favorites start losing. Another interesting
fact is Kershaw is coming off an extra
day of rest. They pushed him back a day just so he could start this
series. In games where he has 6 days of rest, the Dodgers win only 42%
of the time, and for you run-line bettors, they only cover -1.5 in 1 out
of 7! There's a whole other host of indicators pointing towards this
one being a trap! Putting a Hamilton on Mets!
0
Cespedes and Conforto in the lineup today as well
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