I may have finally found a winning formula

Also, run support has no bearing on any specific pitcher. 100% luck

I think run support has a big impact on a pitcher. A pitcher will try to be perfect when he knows he won't get run support. He then presses too hard and that usually doesn't turn out good.

My thinking is to rarely bet on the underdog because of its qualities,but rather to bet against the favorite where warranted.

An example is my rubbergames in which favorites below an opening line of -145 -except in games where the o/u is 7-are 1-14 this year.

I suppose you could argue that a lack of run support affects a pitchers psyche and therefore his performance, however in this particular case that's also untrue. Peavy last season received the 10th highest run support average in baseball and this season his era is 2.87, so if he isn't getting any support thus far this year, it's clearly not affecting his pitching

My point is a pitcher will obviously fare much better when he has a 4 run cushion instead of no run/1 run lead. But sometimes it is not what your pitcher does, its what the other pitcher is doing better. Ramos seems like a punching bag for offenses. He throws in the 80's, but seems to get outs when it counts. I've been on the crap end of the stick with him so I know that he is going to keep his team in the game.  

That's all subjective analysis, is my point. "He keeps his team in the game" is an old timer phrase that holds zero weight considering the vast amount of knowledge we currently have in modern baseball about what things are controllable and what things are luck driven.

His line today is 6 walks and 6 Ks in 5 ip. That's horrendous. He was just lucky in the sense that the sox couldn't get any balls to drop in with runners on. It happens!

Boston loser
Lad winner

Adding nyy -155
Gl all

i would love to be ur bookie

Adding pit -135

Gl all

Bal -135 excuse me

You haven't even verified your record to begin with. You are adding games to a record which know one can see. I could add a new post too, I have 100 - 0 pretty good huh? Amateur city.

I've posted many plays just not all of them. I said earlier I don't feel comfortable cutting and pasting my history with my info on it. I will gladly post my spreadsheet detailing everything if anybody cares that much. It would be silly to fabricate an entire spreadsheet just to verify some sort of fake betting record to a bunch of strangers. I assure you my record is legit. If you don't believe me then that's fine! I'm posting now because I feel like I'm on to something and I want to share thoughts and picks with everybody. Constructive criticism and positive conversation is encouraged!

Gl all

The whole point of posting a record here is that people can follow your plays. To post something that is in your spreadsheet which nobody would have read before, is totally illegitimate. No one does that except some bad apples or people who don't have a clue.

Or people who are busy and don't prioritize validating themselves on a gambling forum?  I understand why it's important to post plays and track records, I'm just not going to post my account history on here for security reasons.  If you choose to think I'm lying to everybody so I can feel good about myself and let these people think I'm some high roller that's fine!  GL on your plays and feel free to provide insight!

I'm not saying your lying, what I'm saying is that posting non recorded results is unethical. I have a legitimate forum which you can see. The great majority post there plays and have a legitimate record. Your record is not legitimate. You are adding plays to a record which was never recorded here in the first place.

I don't know if I'd say unethical this isn't a legitimate business matter, but I understand your point.  I post my record because I like to track it myself and it just makes sense to keep it all the same.  People that would fabricate a "record" and post it here I'll never understand.  What's the point?  You need the internet to make you feel like the man? Weird.  We're all in the same boat trying to make money off gambling on sports so we're all on the same side.  I said it earlier and I'll say it again; I think my "system" can net a profit and I'll continue to push it until it proves a loser.

GL ALL!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

BAL
NYY
BOS SERIES

Down about 4.5 units this week, veering off course a bit here today:

CHI +155 and under 8

Betting against Waino seems on the surface like a bad idea but Travis Wood has been a pleasant surprise thus far for the cubs.  Add in STL's dead last OPS ranking against lefties and I'll take the chance at home as well as the under.

LAD/MIA over 7.5

Beckett has been pretty solid this year but he has a history of giving up longballs and Miami has quietly hit the ball well, ranking 6th in OPS.  On the other side, Tom Koehler is very bad and has been outperforming his peripherals considerably.  Regression is coming.  Dodgers are 8th in team OPS. 

I'll probably be back later with some more night plays but this is all I have time for now, good luck all

ILLZ IM VERY INTERESTED IN YOUR THEORY. I TRY DIFFERENT THINGS IN THE NBA COLLEGE HOOPS NHL I HAVE A LOT OF TROUBLE MLB IS THE ONE THING YOU MIGHT BE ON FOR SOMETHING. ITS 11.50 AM EST IN NYC. I HAVE A W1 HAD AW3 BUT THE NBA HAS TO MAKE SURE STERLINGS NAME IS IN THE DAMN NEWS. AND EVEN THOU WHAT HE SAID WAS HORRIBLE AND DOWNRIGHT RACIST IM YOUR NORMAL WHITE PERSON LIVE ON S ISLAND. I THINK I HAVE OVER 4000 WINS 4000 LOSES. I TRYING A THEROY ON ESPN GAME FOR THE 12.00GOLFSTUNT AND 1.45 GOLF STUNT AND THE 2.20 CUBBIE CARDS GAME BUT WAINRIGHT IS PITCHING SO THE CARDS WILL PROBABLY BE THE PICK GOOD LUCK ILL PUT IT UP IN A MINUTE GOOD LUCK AND STERLING I NO WHAT HE SAID BUT HIS GIRL FREIND TAPE RECORDIND THOSE TERRIBLE THINGS HE SAID. I WONDER IF HE DUMPED HER YET. AND ONLY A 2.5 MILLION DOLLAR PENALTY. I HOPE MAGIC GETS HIS TEAM. HE EARNED IT GOOD LUCK

 

I'll try to explain it a little better since you seemingly aren't getting it.

First off, 99.9% of people who show up here with a great UNDOCUMENTED record are totally full of it, period. You may be telling the truth sure but you are not going to get the slightest bit of respect or anything for plays you didn't posy simply because, like I said, 99.9% of the time you are going to be lying so why in the world would anyone think youre all of the sudden the 0.1%, its just worth it and everyone has been down that road before. Low and behold also your plays haven't been doing so well since you started posting them, boy what a surprise!!!!

Also if your purpose here is just to "track" everything then just track it on a spreadsheet, why tell a bunch of strangers if all youre doing is "just tracking my plays." You want some attention (which is fine that's why we're all here) but you have to just accept the fact no one is gonna take unposted plays for real. This is a forum full of lying clowns and you brought an unposted great record with you and have posted losing plays and everyone is supposed to be like "oh no, this guy is telling the truth for sure even though the 50,000 guys behind him weren't."

Every guy on here has a system that works, but when they start posting all of a sudden it doesn't work. I wish you the best but you need to conform and understand how things go here and in the gambling world, not expect everyone to conform to you and change their way of thinking because you say you've come along with your great "system." A system by the way that puts out -150s regularly, suicide for betting. But hey, you had a nice 40 game stretch I mean how much more of a sample size do you need than that??!!

 

Oh my goodness, I'll screen shot my history on my phone and post photos for proof

Though you are right, this week has not been kind in general, perhaps it was just a hot start

CHI
CHI UNDER

Adding BAL/MIN over 8.5

GL

i agree with above posters, start with new record, or dont post it all. fyi ur "favorites" system will absolutley bury you in the long hall, i guarentee it

I can't post photos on here apparently - if I were to copy all info from my account on here would that still not be good enough?

Well whatever, I don't really care who believes my record and who doesn't.  It is what it is and I will continue to count it as I am not a liar or seeking internet approval from strangers. My whole goal here was to provide picks and insight in the event that I was "on to something".  That remains to be seen.  I started posting picks as soon as I thought I might have something going.  My posted record is still way up. Check myt history, not just this thread.

If I can keep it up I will keep posting picks.  If I can't keep it up then I willl fade away into internet obscurity.  Stay tuned if you care and if you don't then move along!