If you're thinking of betting the Yankees on the runline tonight, come on in and read this first

Last night the Yankees became the 12th team this season to defeat the Angels in a series finale. Why does that matter? Well, I've long been a believer that when a team faces a far inferior opponent, it can leave them vulnerable against their next opponent, especially if that next opponent is any good. 

When facing a far inferior opponent, overconfidence is a likely possibility, and that can lead to complacency and perhaps a lack of intensity. A bad team isn't going to inspire you to raise your game. Usually it's quite the opposite, and getting "softened up" like that is a bad way to head into your next game or series. The Yankees/Angels 3-game series was about as close as could be for the first 24 of the 27 innings until a poor performance from an Angels reliever last night (4 walks!) allowed the Yankees to bust the game open. So now the Yankees are moving on to San Francisco, and this is looking to me like it will be a difficult task for the vaunted Yanks. Why? Well, let's look at how those previous 11 teams fared in their next game after finishing up a series against the Angels with a win.

1) The Red Sox buried the Angels 12-2 on April 7th. On April 9th, they hosted the Orioles and lost 7-1.

2) The Rays defeated the Angels 4-2 on April 10th. On April 12th, they hosted the Giants and won 2-1.

3) The Red Sox defeated the Angels 5-4 on April 14th. The next day, they hosted the Cleveland team and lost 6-0 as a -150 favorite.

4) The Rays defeated the Angels 2-1 on April 18th. The next day, they visited the Yankees and lost 5-3.

5) The Reds defeated the Angels 3-0 on April 21st. The next day, they hosted the Phillies and lost 7-0.

6) The Orioles defeated the Angels 6-5 on April 24th. On April 26th, they hosted the A's and lost 3-2 as a -280 favorite.

7) The Twins bashed the Angels 11-5 on April 28th. The next day, they visited the White Sox and won 3-2 as a -160 favorite.

8) The Phillies defeated the Angels 2-1 on May 1st. On May 3rd, they hosted the Giants and won 4-3 as a -170 favorite.

9) The Cleveland team defeated the Angels 4-1 on May 5th. The next day, they hosted the Tigers and won 4-3.

10) The Royals defeated the Angels 4-2 on May 12th. The next day, they visited the Mariners and lost 6-2.

11) The Cleveland team defeated the Angels 5-4 on May 26th. The next day, they visited the Rockies and lost 8-6.

That's a 4-7 record and a perfect 0-11 against the -1.5 runline! Squeaking out a 1-run win was the best any of these team could manage. Six of the seven losses were by more than one run, and in fact those 7 teams lost by a cumulative 42-14!

If you were considering betting the Yankees on the runline tonight, consider instead a bet on the Giants, or Giants +1.5, or even the Giants -1.5. I intend to bet all three of those.

Well that works for me buddy , I previously posted that the giants was a big play for me  in game 1 

posts like these are why i still stick around covers. win or lose, this is great info and homework. thanks for sharing

Very impressive work and certainly of value. My only objection is to the +1.5 runline. That costs a lot of money to bet ON only one possible outcome. A team can lose by more than one, or win by any number and the +1.5 was irrelevant. Too much juice to bet on only possible advantage, but that is jmho.

 and thanx for the post 

Mr. Bator.....One of the best posters on Covers bar none!!!!  

Never got the chance to say thanks for that nudge the other day on taking angels ml to beat yanks , as oppose to just +1.5 . This stat was quite beneficial 

But how sweet it is when you bet that +1.5 and watch your team fight valiantly but lose the game by one run. They're sullenly shuffling out of the dugout and into the hallway leading to the clubhouse and I'm doing the George Jefferson strut to the betting window to collect!

I intended to bet on the Angels in all three games, but wound up betting only the Tuesday night series opener. On Wednesday I made the correct decision to not mess with Luis Gil, and I'm glad I didn't. Yesterday, I backed away after realizing that the Yankees were a perfect 5-0 this season in the rubber game of a 3-game series while the Angels were only 3-6 in that same situation. Also, I was aware that the Angels had lost all 8 of their home series this season and it just didn't feel like this was going to be their breakthrough.

There was one more thing that dissuaded me from betting on the Angels again after that glorious Tuesday night 8th inning comeback. I learned after that game that the Angels were 1-27 this season in all games in which they were losing at the end of 7 innings. The 4-3 win on Tuesday improved that record to 2-27, but still, a stat like that told me that these Angels are basically quitters!

@MrBator

 incredible stats , not in a good way for the angels . then to sum it up , it was the perfect timing to bet on angels that day haha 

@MrBator

 Difference of opinion of course, but how about when your dog does the strutting with a 10-4 outright win and you have to think about the wasted juice. Like I said difference of opinion and each to his own. Agree to disagree.

I don't bet +1.5 often, but when I do there's alway a moneyline bet on the same team. Sometimes (like tonight) there's a -1.5 bet as well.

@MrBator

 I saw you post about this when the Guardians were leaving town this week and took the Rockies. Great info, was planning on being on the Giants tonight.  Thank you. 

I've held the same belief. Those are great numbers.

There's three teams worse than the Halos.

I especially keep this in mind when betting games involving teams that just played the WSox. (And pitchers who's last game was vs the WSox.)

You wouldn't happen to have that in the data base?

I wouldn't happen to have a database, lol.

@MrBator

 I know what you mean. yesterday I used KC plus 1.5 runs and got a few runs in the 9th to win !

The great Bobby Witt, Jr. was your 9th inning hero, singling in 2 runs with 2 outs!

MR 

yessir

@MrBator

 Wow! what a read. I was thinking NYY RL tonight to! 

Sir great write-up and appreciate the information 

-C34

Also to add. SF last 10 games is 7-3 RL 

Giants tonight. Small play. perfect night game for me. 2nd shift. grab a pizza on my way home and get to catch the game. 

BOL everyone 

@MrBator

 Very good stuff you dug up there sir. Wow!

Great info...thanks for the write up! 

Remember when covers used to have posts like this daily?

Nice work Bator 

Thanks 

I like your style