Interesting Winning Statistic On The Runline

I've crunched the numbers for all of last regular season and this one to-date, and I've come up with an interesting 19-5 winning algorithm.

 

It goes like this:

 

If both pitchers have pitched in at least two games this season for their current team in the manner (visitor or home) that they're pitching tonight plus one game of the opposite manner this season, or, if they have pitched in at least three games this season for their current team in the manner that they're pitching tonight (visitor or home), it can be either combination for either pitcher, just as long as both each total three games in either way,

 

And if the home team is favored better or equal to -175,

 

And if the runline is 9.5 or greater,

 

And if the average runs allowed per inning of the visiting relief pitching effort over the past 9 to 11 utilizations of relief pitching (throwing out the best and worst performance day) is greater than .4443,

 

And if the average runs allowed per inning of the home relief pitching effort over the past 9 to 11 utilizations of relief pitching (throwing out the best and worst performance day) is less than .4445,

 

Then, the home team wins by two or more runs 19 times out of 24 -- nearly 80% of the time!

 

Granted, the average point spread moneyline for the 19 wins is around -118, but PREDICTABLY winning thus 16 units at a cost of 5 -- 76.19% unit winning percentage -- is still pretty darn good even if you have to wait a long time for it to accumulate.

 

Interesting is that the hitters and starting pitchers and fielders -- none need to be considered with regard to specific statistics, as they're all rolled up into the Vegas odds-makers moneyline.

 

Only the relief pitching needs to be additionally considered as I have done, and only with the specific numeric values I've discovered.

 

If I don't additionally consider the relief pitching as I've indicated here, then there are 50 wins and 34 losses, and the percentage drops 20 points to 59.52%, the average point spread moneyline remaining about the same.  So you win 42.2 units at a cost of 34 units, only a 55.38% unit winning percentage.

 

When I tried to alter the results by comparing starting pitching and hitters like I did additionally with the relief pitchers, the results are actually worse than doing nothing at all, which surprised me.

 

Relief pitching makes a difference.

 

Amazing!

 

If I encounter one of these games from here on, I'll post it.

 

And there's nothing LV can do about it either, as they won't want to compensationally ramp up the moneyline completely out of sight or they'll take it in the shorts when the dog wins outright.

 

And .. if you'd like me to perform any particular analysis for you, just let me know.  I have some individual info on starting pitchers, but only team information on the rest.

 

Enjoy. 

WTF is 'manner'.

 

I could probably have been clearer .. but what I meant was that the away starting pitcher had to have three games under his belt this season as an AWAY starting pitcher, and the home starting pitcher had to have three games under his belt this season as a HOME starting pitcher.  If the pitchers lack experience in a season, as they do at the very beginning, I don't include those games in the analysis.

 

Also, now that you mention it, the same is true with regard to the relief pitching, so when I say the most recent 9 to 11 utilizations of relief pitching for the away team, that means the past recent 9 to 11 utilizations AWAY from home, and for the home team that's the 9 to 11 recent past utilizations at HOME.  I do, however, allow a few of the most recent games at the opposite venue to be considered.  This method of determining the strength of the aspect in question was all derived by scientific trial and error.

 

Interesting is that I don't average an entire season, or average the most recent with the past, or anything like that to asses the strength of a given aspect.  Only the most recent is of value.

 

With baseball, it's more true than with any other sport, that a team -- its hitting, fielding, starting pitcher(s), and relief pitching -- isn't who they've been throughout according to their won-loss record, they are who they've been in the last week or so.