Posted:
#1
I've crunched the numbers for all of last regular season and this one to-date, and I've come up with an interesting 19-5 winning algorithm.
It goes like this:
If both pitchers have pitched in at least two games this season for their current team in the manner (visitor or home) that they're pitching tonight plus one game of the opposite manner this season, or, if they have pitched in at least three games this season for their current team in the manner that they're pitching tonight (visitor or home), it can be either combination for either pitcher, just as long as both each total three games in either way,
And if the home team is favored better or equal to -175,
And if the runline is 9.5 or greater,
And if the average runs allowed per inning of the visiting relief pitching effort over the past 9 to 11 utilizations of relief pitching (throwing out the best and worst performance day) is greater than .4443,
And if the average runs allowed per inning of the home relief pitching effort over the past 9 to 11 utilizations of relief pitching (throwing out the best and worst performance day) is less than .4445,
Then, the home team wins by two or more runs 19 times out of 24 -- nearly 80% of the time!
Granted, the average point spread moneyline for the 19 wins is around -118, but PREDICTABLY winning thus 16 units at a cost of 5 -- 76.19% unit winning percentage -- is still pretty darn good even if you have to wait a long time for it to accumulate.
Interesting is that the hitters and starting pitchers and fielders -- none need to be considered with regard to specific statistics, as they're all rolled up into the Vegas odds-makers moneyline.
Only the relief pitching needs to be additionally considered as I have done, and only with the specific numeric values I've discovered.
If I don't additionally consider the relief pitching as I've indicated here, then there are 50 wins and 34 losses, and the percentage drops 20 points to 59.52%, the average point spread moneyline remaining about the same. So you win 42.2 units at a cost of 34 units, only a 55.38% unit winning percentage.
When I tried to alter the results by comparing starting pitching and hitters like I did additionally with the relief pitchers, the results are actually worse than doing nothing at all, which surprised me.
Relief pitching makes a difference.
Amazing!
If I encounter one of these games from here on, I'll post it.
And there's nothing LV can do about it either, as they won't want to compensationally ramp up the moneyline completely out of sight or they'll take it in the shorts when the dog wins outright.
And .. if you'd like me to perform any particular analysis for you, just let me know. I have some individual info on starting pitchers, but only team information on the rest.
Enjoy.
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