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June 10 Mariners vs Houston

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Posted: #1
I don't know how anyone can pay -235 to back the Mariners with their offense in the current state of affairs.  Certainly, Iwakuma is good, perhaps the best starting pitcher in the big leagues this season, but he doesn't bat, and we saw what happened yesterday when a "not so sharp" Felix Hernandez hand cuffed the Yanks for 7 innings.

Should the Mariners win this game tonight?  Of course they Should, but do they win this game in this situation often enough to warrant paying -235 for the pleasure?  I don't think so.  Even though I think very highly of Iwakuma, the prices may force me to back the under dog tonight.  I know the Astros are bad, but the Mariners aren't exactly very good themselves.

Iwakuma hasn't allowed a run in quite some time, he will regress at some point, and +215 might be enough to back that outcome tonight.

Or I just might go back to the Under 6.5 well.
 
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Posted: #2
Just dont bet on this game....
 
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Posted: #3
under or nothing
 
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Posted: #4
Iwakuma at HOME has allowed a total of 5 earned runs in 6 starts!!!....Those teams he shut down, Texas (TWICE), Detroit, Oakland, LA, & Chicago.

Astros check in hitting dead last against righties in the AL.

Keuchel has been impressive his last 2 starts & the Mariners check in 14th out of 15th hitting against lefties in the AL.

When you can hold the Orioles to just 1 run in 6 innings you know what you are doing on the mound.

Ill be on the UNDER & the Mariners though.


 
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Posted: #5
Quote Originally Posted by CJJ307:

Just dont bet on this game....


Perhaps . . . but why cough up a chance to back a proposition at +215 when it should be 50 cents more expensive?
 
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Posted: #6
Just for the sake of discussion, the Mariners have won 69% of Iwakuma's starts overall and 83% of his home starts, so the line is not unreasonable at all. Would I bet it? No, -235 requires a 70.2% win probability, which he may or may not have, but pays only 42.5 cents on the dollar of risk. The question becomes "does he (they) win this matchup 2 out of 3 times"? The answer is "probably, but it is baseball, anything can happen". The math is there, the logic is there, but I won't do it. All that being said, if there is value with Iwakuma, there can't possibly be with Keuchel. No play has value on either or both sides. Like the guy said, play the total or leave it alone. BOL
Now and then even a BLIND squirrel can find an acorn
 
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Posted: #7
The Mariners team that won all those starts for Iwakuma is not the same team that lines up today.  Give me a "not horribly struggling" Saunders, Smoak, Morse, and Bay/Ibanez/Shoppach playing roles they are suited for and give me the solid pen we saw earlier and I entirely agree that the prices are justified and fair.

Just my opinion, will likely land on the Under, but if I can project Kuechel to be decent, then I have to take a stab at the low priced under dog.
 
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Posted: #8
sea -2.5 (+150) is the play....the bats will come alive for seattle tonight
 
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Posted: #9
under in the first five
 
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Posted: #10
i'd be careful with the under i see this being a 7-3 type of game 
 
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Posted: #11
Mariners Lineups
RF  Bay
3B  Seager
1B  Morales
DH  Morse
LF  Ibanez
C    Shoppach
CF  Chavez
SS  Ryan
2B  Triunfel

Astros Lineups
CF  Barnes
2B  Altuve
C    Castro
LF  Martinez
DH  Pena
1B  Carter
RF  Paredes
3B  Dominguez
SS  Ganzalez
 
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Posted: #12
Quote Originally Posted by c027:

sea -2.5 (+150) is the play....the bats will come alive for seattle tonight


I think I'd rather lay the juice then force 3 runs out of the mariners lol
 
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Posted: #13
Played Under 3.5 first 5 innings.  GL  
 
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Posted: #14
If you can project 3+ runs from the Mariners offense (i cannot), then I can see why one might take a stab at the Alt Run Line.
 
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Posted: #15

I'm looking Mariners -1.5 @$1.90. I wouldn't be surprised if they knock in a few runs tonight but 4 should be sufficient.

I know Astros have a good record against Seattle but I think the Seattle bats are a chance of knocking Keuchel around but I can't see Houston getting at Iwakuma.

Good punting 

 
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Posted: #16
Quote Originally Posted by KeyElement:

Just for the sake of discussion, the Mariners have won 69% of Iwakuma's starts overall and 83% of his home starts, so the line is not unreasonable at all. Would I bet it? No, -235 requires a 70.2% win probability, which he may or may not have, but pays only 42.5 cents on the dollar of risk. The question becomes "does he (they) win this matchup 2 out of 3 times"? The answer is "probably, but it is baseball, anything can happen". The math is there, the logic is there, but I won't do it. All that being said, if there is value with Iwakuma, there can't possibly be with Keuchel. No play has value on either or both sides. Like the guy said, play the total or leave it alone. BOL

I will let you in on a secret. The amount of times a team has won a game a starting pitcher has started is COMPLETELY irrelevant. That is not an exaggeration. Absolutely irrelevant.
 
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Posted: #17
NO runs in the 1st inning  -140
 
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Posted: #18
astros tt under although that is quite juicy also
 
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Posted: #19
IWAKUMA ALREADY LOST TO ASTROS THIS YEAR LIKE THE VALUE WIT THE DOG
 
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Posted: #20
I can't resist, perhaps I am polluted after watching this team flail away night after night . . . but these prices are not indicative of each team's true chances tonight . . . clearly this is my opinion, maybe i'm right, maybe i'm not, but I'm not passing up a chance to fade the Mariners and get rewarded with +220 for my trouble.

Houston Astros ML at +220 tonight
 
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Posted: #21
i think its a good value play as well but the best play in this game has to be mariners to score 1st at -130
 
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Posted: #22
How about Seattle most hits in the first inning @ +125 ?
 
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Posted: #23
lol or not
 
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Posted: #24
its honestly comical the idea that people out there lay 240 on the mariners in any situation
 
 
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Posted: #25
The mariners laying -240 


You could have gotten the Astros rl at even money as well 
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