Posted:
#1
Posted Record: 31-17-3 (+21.68 units)
Don't want to bump an old thread. As always - if you commented in yesterday's thread, I read it and I thank you for the kind words 
I'm in my 40's and grew up listening to AC/DC. Ironically, long before my obsession with the stock market and sports betting, my favorite song was always Back in Black. Well, posted units are Back in Black! Now, I need to keep em there.
If you don't like write ups, skip to the bottom - my play is in Bold.
Yesterday, I faded one of the worst bullpens in baseball. Tonight, I'm going to put my $ behind the 2nd best bullpen in baseball and #1 in the NL. Through the first 2.5 months of the season, LA's pen is pitching to a 2.98 ERA and a 1.06 WHIP. They're as solid as they come. Dave Roberts has confirmed that everyone (other than Banda) is available. On the other hand, Texas has the 5th worst bullpen in MLB. They're pitching to a 4.71 ERA and a 1.36 WHIP. Fortunately, I believe we're gonna get a good look at the Texas pen tonight.
Michael Lorenzen is having a very nice season. However, at age 32 and 352 games to date, he's clearly overachieving. How's he doing it? Well, for starters - he's only faced one top 10 offense (Cleveland at #10). Tonight, he'll be taking a big step up in class against the #1 offense in MLB. He'll have to go through murderer's row. The Dodgers have 5 players that rank in the NL's top 15 in offensive efficiency; Ohtani (#1), Betts (#3), Freeman (#8), T Hernandez (#9) and Will Smith (#15). When a lineup is this stacked, you can't pitch around guys and I believe that's going to create problems for Lorenzen. He's also issuing close to 3 walks per start. You can't give LA free passes and expect to come out unscathed.
On the flip side, I believe the Dodgers learned a valuable lesson yesterday - Don't let Corey Seager beat you. He beat them single-handedly last night and I think they'll be very careful with him moving forward. He doesn't have the protection LA provides their sluggers. In fact, his protection is Adolis Garcia. Garcia's name carries more weight than he's been worth in 2024. In fact - in the month of June, he's 3 for 39 hitting to a 103 avg/143 OBP/179 SLG/322 OPS. His season numbers aren't a whole lot better and his poor performance is one of many reasons the defending champs are 3 games under 500. With Marcus Semien coming in at #66, Seager is the only Ranger to crack the top 25 in offensive efficiency. The plan is really simple when if comes to Texas - Make someone other than Seager beat you. His teammates haven't been able to do it all season and against the best pen in the NL, I don't see it happening tonight.
Last night was just the 7th time Texas has won a game this season against a team with a better than 500 record. When they get Scherzer, deGrom, Jung, Carter, and Mahle off the IL, I think they'll turn things around. Until then, they're just not very good.
I'm on the Dodgers for 50 units at -130 (-1). I've explained in the past why I won't lay -1.5 on home teams. Happy to discuss that and/or the game if there are any questions or comments.
Cheers and BOL
9
My AZ friends are gonna love that one. It's classic! haha
get another win kaufee 
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