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KC will not beat Baltimore 4 in a row. So here is what we can do.

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Posted: #26
Haha this guy is stuck betting about $5-600 dollars to just profit $100 on game 3 with the Orioles.


 
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Posted: #27
About $660.LOL
 
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Posted: #28
Quote Originally Posted by flash_diamond:


Pretty simple.   I use non-bayesian machine learning tactics to produce simulations of games from a corpus of previous pbp data and mix in a lot of tradition actuarial player matchups with basic t-tests and correlations.   

I pay a group of people minimum wage to collect stats no one else has, bat angle in the strike zone and of course fx data from GD2 server.  delta height of ball vs bat barrel  (height difference is much more important that horizontal position of ball since the bat covers less of it) and most importantly swing timing  and where the hands are during the swings.   Often I pick up on bad batting habits long before the public and bet large on overhyped lineups.

When you have this data you are miles ahead of anyone else.  sports betting is 95% data munging, 5% analysis imo.  

all of this stuff is pretty familiar though if you are an ex quant and its great to meet you!

post your picks or stfu

 
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Posted: #29
Quote Originally Posted by smarterthanyou:

post your picks or stfu


Agree as well...I have not seen any Sportsbooks closing up shop lately..
 
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Posted: #30
Quote Originally Posted by JimmyDrizzl:


Agree as well...I have not seen any Sportsbooks closing up shop lately..

its called player profiling software.   A simple search on google can educate you on how this works.  I mean it takes like 30 seconds to do this.
 
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Posted: #31
Given the fact that statistical analysis has always been more useful for discerning long-term trends, I assume most of your picks are basically whatever your model predicts them to be, and there is little to no deviation from that?

Still, for a forum like covers, people usually look for a winning pick on any given day and are unlikely to tail someone for weeks/months in a row, which unfortunately, makes such model-based predictions of little to no use for the everyday poster. Unless ofcourse the statistical models themselves are publicly disclosed, which I have no doubt will never ever be the case.



 
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Posted: #32
Orioles down 0-3,,,,looke like you will be wagering about $1200 on game 4 just to profit $100 now.



 
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Posted: #33
I'm rooting for you magic. 
 
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Posted: #34
Bad decisions
 
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Posted: #35
Look at it the other way: no way in hell Baltimore wins 4 straight so take KC and martingale games 5-7 if they don't sweep.

 
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Posted: #36

Please don't say you're a bridge jumper if KC wins next game. You have shed light on how not to gamble for those who don't understand. We need you.

 
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Posted: #37
Quote Originally Posted by flash_diamond:


I pay a group of people minimum wage to collect stats no one else has


Then you either don't win much at betting, or you're a piece of sht.

Neither option is impressive.

Also, there's no such thing as a stat that literally NO ONE ELSE has. Unless it's a made up stat.

Lastly, you said 'public' in your strat brag.. which is usually the sign of someone who lives in magic land.

As you were, schooling the class.
 
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Posted: #38
KC is sweeping everyone.
 
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Posted: #39
Quote Originally Posted by flash_diamond:


nah I am a mathematician by degree.    It irks me to hear amatuer betters talk about martingales when baseball progressive betting is actually a sub-martingale system which can be profitably modelled to great success considering the guys who run the vegas books don't do any math and use an excel spreadsheet and don best feed to set odds lol.  (mostly just taking pinnacles odds) 


 

Seems to me like you're just typing word for word off of a website to try and sound smart, or like you know something. Anyone with a degree should know the difference between better and bettor... Maybe you should just let your picks do the talking instead of trying to give your .02 cents into every other persons thread 

 
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Posted: #40
it's best to just take it one game at a time, martingale systems only work if you have an infinite bankroll and a book that has no betting limit, such is never the case

no substitute for good solid reasoning and regression analysis
 
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Posted: #41
Quote Originally Posted by flash_diamond:

Trust your hunch,   none of these guys have PhD's in math or stats so they have no idea if this 4 step martingale is an effective bet or not,

on the surface it seems highly improbable, but even moreso if you throw $500 on betfair and hedge out in game once bal gets a lead.   
also degen betters like key element always focus on the losses and trolling others for thinking in a way that isn't in a narrow minded scope they approve of.    the primary concern here is that non stats guys like him invoke a theory meant for blackjack where past results are mutually exclusive to the future betting contract (which can NOT be hedged in real time), where in baseball that is not true.  I know 2 people who use martingales/hedge systems in baseball to great effect.  

You don't need a PhD in Math to know that's not effective.  You never heard of lead changes throughout the game? I am sure you always bet the "right" amount at the exact "right" time, right?

 
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Posted: #42
1 more game to go
 
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Posted: #43
Quote Originally Posted by Johnny-Utah:


Then you either don't win much at betting, or you're a piece of sht.

Neither option is impressive.

Also, there's no such thing as a stat that literally NO ONE ELSE has. Unless it's a made up stat.

Lastly, you said 'public' in your strat brag.. which is usually the sign of someone who lives in magic land.

As you were, schooling the class.

cool story bro
 
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Posted: #44
Quote Originally Posted by bunny651:

You don't need a PhD in Math to know that's not effective.  You never heard of lead changes throughout the game? I am sure you always bet the "right" amount at the exact "right" time, right?


I bet the perceived optimal amount at the optimal time as far as a numerical algorithm can tell,   I believe wholeheartedly that a cold, emotionless machine is far more effective then subjective sports betting and have at least until know done very well thanks to that philosophy.   But who knows, maybe numerics will just blow up and not work anymore on any given stretch.   I'm not betting on that.
 
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Posted: #45
Quote Originally Posted by flash_diamond:


I bet the perceived optimal amount at the optimal time as far as a numerical algorithm can tell,   I believe wholeheartedly that a cold, emotionless machine is far more effective then subjective sports betting and have at least until know done very well thanks to that philosophy.   But who knows, maybe numerics will just blow up and not work anymore on any given stretch.   I'm not betting on that.

ugh darn spellcheck,   at least until now
 
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Posted: #46
Quote Originally Posted by NewbieQuestion:

 

Seems to me like you're just typing word for word off of a website to try and sound smart, or like you know something. Anyone with a degree should know the difference between better and bettor... Maybe you should just let your picks do the talking instead of trying to give your .02 cents into every other persons thread 


are you truly conflating a few spelling mistake with betting ability?   and by the way I don't think there is such thing as .02 cents,  or at least I haven't seen those hundredth of cent coins yet bro.  

It seems like you are so friggin stupid you can't even understand what a decimal is.   That MUST MAKE YOU A BET BETT"O"R.  

My wife is laughing so hard at you right now its awesome.
 
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Posted: #47
Here's the problem with all your research.  It's based on the past.

These crazy Royals are doing something that's never happened before almost ever night!

No team has ever won an elimination game down 4 runs in the 8th inning?  Check that off.  And that would have popped up as a good time to bet against them?

 
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Posted: #48
Quote Originally Posted by magiccarpetride:

Bet $200 on the O's first game, if I lose, I will bet the O's to make up for my $200 and a $100 profit, if they lose the 2nd game I will bet to make up all that I lost and a $100 profit, and if they lose the 3rd game and on and on.....

No way will KC win 4 in a row!!
  
 
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Posted: #49
Quote Originally Posted by flash_diamond:


Pretty simple.   I use non-bayesian machine learning tactics to produce simulations of games from a corpus of previous pbp data and mix in a lot of tradition actuarial player matchups with basic t-tests and correlations.   

I pay a group of people minimum wage to collect stats no one else has, bat angle in the strike zone and of course fx data from GD2 server.  delta height of ball vs bat barrel  (height difference is much more important that horizontal position of ball since the bat covers less of it) and most importantly swing timing  and where the hands are during the swings.   Often I pick up on bad batting habits long before the public and bet large on overhyped lineups.

When you have this data you are miles ahead of anyone else.  sports betting is 95% data munging, 5% analysis imo.  

all of this stuff is pretty familiar though if you are an ex quant and its great to meet you!


interesting... i use a half bayesian / half indonesian machine at .5657 power during the regular season...in the playoffs i up the wattage of the flux capticitor to .7895 in order to compensate for pi 3.14...the then use the farmers almanac to pre-predic the percipitation and what type of clouds will be encircling the stadium...harder to cap cumulus over stratus but easier for nimbus' with a low barometer reading and under .0857 humidity

...actually... my son's tball team last yr was the Royals so I've been playing them every game since the wilcard game... during the regular season i asked him who he likes based off of names and team colors...he didn't know what a Philly was so i made some good coin on that fade
 
 
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Posted: #50
oh- and i forgot, i call the trainers to check the color and brand ock straps... rawlings black increase batting average while kirkland white lower it... rawlings black though does increase a pitchers ERA---i have to change the rotor girdle in the equinox database to compensate for that scenario
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