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Laying down 5k on Houston

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Posted: #1

So I’m trying to figure out how to get the best value. I leave Vegas on Thursday of this week. I’m either going to put 5k on Astros to take down Boston (bet365 has it at pick em -115). Assuming this is the Vegas line (or if Boston  is somehow the favorite) when I get to the counter, will I see a better return betting +210 to win it all risking 5 to win 1050 or betting -115 to win $4545.45 and then rolling that over to risk $9545.45 to win?? I know this totally depends on what team they play. So another way my question could be put is this. ASSUMING the World Series is Astros vs Dodgers, what would you have it priced at? Now how about Astros vs Brewers? TIA!

 
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Posted: #2
For one, it's much easier to get one pick right versus getting whole series right. 

In other words, pick winner of Boston vs Astros then maybe consider who will win that series. 

Btw. There's a reason Redsox are almost dog at home vs Astros 
 
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Posted: #3
If Dodgers play Astros in World Series today, I'd say odds shall be : -125 Astros 
 
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Posted: #4
I say ASTROS take it all, but its repeating all over again like last year 
 
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Posted: #5

Sorry folks but 2018 belongs to the sox...Boston Red Sox will win it all..an_2drinks.

CHOP YOUR BOOKIES HEAD-OFF
 
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Posted: #6

Quote Originally Posted by Freddy666:

Sorry folks but 2018 belongs to the sox...Boston Red Sox will win it all...
No need apologize Freddy, everyone has a dream

 
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Posted: #7

I think this matchup is a coin flip but the x factor is no team since the Yankees have won back to back titles. It's almost impossible to do so that's why I take Boston.

 
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Posted: #8
I think team from AL takes it all. Heart says Boston, but gut says Astros. Astros +210 to win it all is a smart bet..all around better team with bullpen and defense....2 critical parts of winning a title. Good luck with your Vegas bet.

My WS prediction with Astros vs NL:

Astros vs Dodgers > Astros -125
Astros vs Brewers > Astros -175
 
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Posted: #9
Quote Originally Posted by LB_Dirtbags:

I think team from AL takes it all. Heart says Boston, but gut says Astros. Astros +210 to win it all is a smart bet..all around better team with bullpen and defense....2 critical parts of winning a title. Good luck with your Vegas bet.

My WS prediction with Astros vs NL:

Astros vs Dodgers > Astros -125
Astros vs Brewers > Astros -175

More like...

Astros -150 vs Dodgers
Astros -225 vs Brewers
 
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Posted: #10
and really -150 only because of 2 Kershaw games.
 
Houston has a favourable pitching matchup in every other game + better bats+home field.
 
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Posted: #11
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The lion and the tiger may be more powerful, but the wolf doesn't perform in the circus.
 
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Posted: #12

Quote Originally Posted by Freddy666:

Sorry folks but 2018 belongs to the sox...Boston Red Sox will win it all...
Freddy are you a BOSOX Homer?

The pen is mightier than the pigs
 
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Posted: #13

Quote Originally Posted by Polar_Bear:

Quote Originally Posted by Mancity:

For one, it's much easier to get one pick right versus getting whole series right. In other words, pick winner of Boston vs Astros then maybe consider who will win that series. Btw. There's a reason Redsox are almost dog at home vs Astros
  Like there was a reason they were +160 game 3 in New York when they won 16-1......
and +130 in Game 4

The pen is mightier than the pigs
 
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Posted: #14

Thanks for everyone’s help. Unfortunately Vegas odds ended up being not so generous as bet365. I ended up getting 2 separate tickets for 2500 to win 4500. I did this because apparently with the 2018 gambling law revision, I read sports books are taking 24% out of your winning ticket if the win is over $5k. Is this true? even in Vegas with cold hard cash being paid over the counter (without signing up for a account) ? Or is this only true for the new states, like Jersey? Is it enforced 100% of the time or only sometimes? TIA

 
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Posted: #15

Dodgers take it this year..  There line up is so deep..  Only if they can borrow the Yankees bullpen

 
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Posted: #16

Can only start 9 guys. And the Astros match their depth without much drop off. But the Astros bullpen this year is such a significant upgrade from what really was crap last year makes this team unbeatable - along with the addition of the 4th best pitcher in the AL Gerrit Cole. Combine that with homefield in Houston’s favor this year if the rematch should play out - and the Dodgers will be a considerable underdog. 

 
 
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Posted: #17

Quote Originally Posted by Mancity:

If Dodgers play Astros in World Series today, I'd say odds shall be : -125 Astros

 

Agree, may come out as high as -140, but pub will jump on LA...

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