LOOKING FOR INPUT ON BASEBALL/MONEY STRATEGIES FOR MLB SEASON

@KingScorpio

  ADD CLEV

My baseball rules are simple.

1. Never go more than -150 on a team no matter who the pitcher is.

2. 3 and out is a play if the number fits rule 1.

  2a. If a team wins 3 in a row follow the streak.

  2b. If a team loses 3 in a row, keep betting against them.

you never know when a team will reel off a winning or losing streak of 4 or more.

3. I never lay the 1.5 runs. You'd be surprised by how many games are 1 run decisions..

4. Totals, I never bet under and overs when 2 starters have high ERA's and pitching in hitters parks (Fenway).

2a. If a team wins 3 in a row follow the streak.

  2b. If a team loses 3 in a row, keep betting against them.

really like those, 3 starts to show a trend, sometimes goes to 4-6, but also can go 8-9+ especially in mlb

@collectNOW

 THAT SOUNDS GOOD...THANKS

@dubz4dummyz

 i HAVE A THING ABOUT 5'S, 7'S AND 10'S...STREAKS TEND END UP ON THOSE NUMBERS AND STOP AFTER THOSE NUMBERS

@KingScorpio

 Starting tonight. 

Welcome back King Scorpio! Agree 100% betting against the Cubs.

@KingScorpio

 Not sure about betting against Angels but Cubs Yes---they are always overly favored....The year after Cubs WS win the next season they had a winning record, but lost a lot of money on ML.....The Cubs lost last night to Pitt...at -200...you need the Cubs to win the next 2 games to break even....Yes I'll look at those Cubs this season...or rather against Cubs...lol   Thanks for the heads up...

@detroitdavid

 Yes some good rules to follow...especially the Run Line, I get suckered every once in awhile...Didn't need run, Loses, or pays Little depending on which way you go.-Opening Day.... went against WS winner LAD and took the top3 spring training records (KC, tor, mia) and against bottom 3 (cinn, houst, cleve)...that's was my  "Opening Day" strategy. 5-2 yesterday.

I've never seen anything change so drastically so quickly. Years ago , & i' soon to be 74 ,You could specify pitchers, and usually get within reason the expected outcome of the starter. Not any more . Tampa proved that. So many pitchers are on pitch counts which  forces more relievers. The bullpen , or the lack thereof , effects many more games than the starters do in my opinion . Look at the bullpen ERA, who's available , Lefty/rightie , past 3 -4  games , and I think it will help your handicapping. And we haven't even started talking about juiced balls, humidors, ETC. As always, GL on all your plays.

@cheeser

 Yeah the Pitchers by committee for the later innings...someone mentioned betting just 5 innings before the pitcher gets yanked...something to look into

@ProfessorMJ

 Got a question for the Professor relating to the ‘Hot Bats’ scenarios (or anyone intimately familiar with the system):

Just to be clear, 1) All bets are money line?

2) Is each bet a straight ‘Go’ in every scenario where bats are ‘hot’ (both 2 game/6 runs and also 4 game/5 runs)? What I’m getting at is do you ever refrain from a bet based on an injury report, hot/cold starting pitcher, etc, or perhaps those variables further assist a contrarian strategy by baking better valued odds into the wager? 

Thanks in advance. Would really appreciate a response. 

Oy vey. 

@detroitdavid

 Just curious DD, Have you followed the streak thing (bet on 3 W's and against 3 L's for a season or more ? Obviously taking the high odds into account when betting a fav ?

I find that betting against the big market teams Yankees, Cubs, Mets, Angel's, on Saturday when they are garnering more then 60% of the handle. Saw a 24% ROI of 1700 bucks last year

MYSELF.........

up for the season while hitting only 55%

ALL DOGS

I take favoirites maybe 5 to 10% of my plays after May.....

UNDERDOGS ONLY......

I can go 1 and 1 and still be up 50% of my original wager...

Its the only sport where your % says your losing but your wallet says different..

When a team wins 3 straight.......I take them every game til they lose.Today....Houston.dont even care if Ronald McDonald is pitching..Take them.............BINGO BANGO

- Try considering weather. If the wind is blowing out to left or center above say 10mph, chances are for more home runs, therefore more runs scored in the game.  When the wind is blowing in from center field, that is proven to help the pitcher. Believe it or not, the ball carries more when there is precipitation, moisture does not slow the ball down. If it's super hot, the ball also carries.

- Consider not taking a visiting team in the first game of the series that had a long road trip, especially with little rest from their previous game and especially if their previous game went into extra innings or they played a double header.

- Take note of the teams with the youngest players. Find out those players birthdays, if there is a popular player on the team and their birthday is in the middle of the season, don't take that team the following day of that birthday, chances are they were out late that night.

- Study player WAR and know which players have the highest impact on a team winning in they are in the lineup. Knowing lineups ahead before you bet is huge.

@Wayverider

 Texas + was a winner on Sunday.

 Pitt + is a play today.

 Both on the 2/6 system.

 GL

@collectNOW

 Good luck with these last 8 teams. Game 4's and 5's are brutal in a chase system. 

Thanks @Luckydan

 From what I can see Angels are a bet as well. 

I've had pretty good success with capping the hitter/pitcher matchups for each game. There is no 'system' to it, just everyday work with the numbers and finding an edge in that particular matchup. I pay special attention 1-2-3 hitters since they will have more PAs against a certain pitcher.

Other statistics I pay attention to that most bettors don't:

1.) BABIP. If you don't understand the implications of this statistic in a baseball game, do yourself a favor and look it up. Just Look at the bottom 5 in BABIP to start the 2021 season: 3 are 0-fer (Atlanta, Boston, Oakland.)

2.) Fielding Percentage. This stat doesn't become evident until 20-30 games into the season, but I rarely bet on a team with a worse FP than its opponent. Probably just me but I don't want my money on a team that kicks the ball around.

Okay, good luck. Hope this helps. Baseball is the only sport I've ever beaten with consistency. I am terrible at the others. Ha!

@Wayverider

 They only scored 5 runs on Saturday.

GL

@Luckydan

 Ok I’m clearly missing something here: Angels played Astros tonight. In the Astros previous four games they scored 8, 9, 9 and 9. So why wouldn’t the Angels/Astros game qualify (money line bet on Angels)?

@Luckydan

 Ahhhhh, they’ve got to be the home team - gotcha. 

Thanks again