Personally, I've found this play completely stress-free since I've started it just more than two months ago. Longest losing streak I ran into was 4 straight loses by the Yankees just recently and yet I was not worried at all of losing money.
HOWEVER, it is extremely important to be disciplined and make sure to consider all aspects of a play (starting pitchers on the day/upcoming games, upcoming schedules/try to avoid teams with hard schedules/injuries/previous trends and losing streaks etc). It's also important to note that I am fortunate to have a large bankroll, at least for me, at $20,000. I also plan on increasing bet sizes for ML plays since I've had consistent success and limits are extremely high for MLs. Pinnacle sportsbook has been my best friend as it not only gives best odds for both MLs, but also tells you the max bet sizes for each bet.
Also important to note that this play is a side-side hustle for me. Sports betting is a side hustle for me. I have had huge success with arbitrage betting since the start of the year meaning this play is a side hustle to my main side hustle of arbing. I've been able to bring in about $30-200/day extra almost daily the past two months (of course, some days I made nothing and some days, even more).
Focus on strong MLB teams currently on a 1 to 3-game losing streak.
Ensure they have favorable upcoming games (home games, easier opponents, favorable pitching matchups).
Avoid betting on teams with excessively high odds (-250 or higher).
Example:
Team: New York Yankees on a 2-game losing streak, starting a home series against a weaker opponent like the KC Royals
Game 1: Bet $50 at -150 odds. If they win, profit approximately $33. If they lose, proceed to Game 2.
Game 2: Bet $120 at -150 odds. If they win, profit approximately $80-50=$30, covering the previous loss and netting a profit. If they lose, proceed to Game 3.
Game 3: Bet $300 at -150 odds. If they win, profit approximately $200-50-120=$30, covering all previous losses and netting a profit.
(ofc, odds change depending on numerous factors (starting pitchers/injuries mainly); simply adjust bet size to overcome previous losses, if needed)
Positives:
Leverages strong teams' likelihood of bouncing back from short losing streaks.
Focuses on favorable game conditions to increase the chances of winning.
Potential Risks:
Extended losing streaks can quickly escalate bet sizes and deplete bankroll.
Betting limits imposed by sportsbooks can hinder the ability to place required bets in the progression.
Focus on NRFI (No Run First Inning) bets with teams that typically do not score in the first inning.
Example:
Series: Washington Nationals vs. Tampa Bay Rays
Game 1: Bet $50 on NRFI at -130 odds. If they win, profit approximately $38. If they lose, proceed to Game 2.
Game 2: Bet $110 on NRFI at -130 odds. If they win, profit approximately $85-50=$35, covering the previous loss and netting a profit. If they lose, proceed to Game 3.
Game 3: Bet $250 on NRFI at -130 odds. If they win, profit approximately $192-50-110=$32, covering all previous losses and netting a profit.
Lastly, this play is nothing crazy and probably has been tried and done by a lot of people before. I just wanted to discuss with others what's been working for me recently.
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