MLB - Monday 5/17

If I was a whiny little girl with no capping skills and had to tail someone as my only recourse for picking a game - and that person I was tailing hit a slump - I would be whining like a little sissy nancy boy as well - especially if I lost everything I had and my job paid little.

However I am a real man with pride and self respect and I don't play with scared money.

Flaming a solid capper who offers insight and hangs out his plays for all to see is a real man as well. Thanks GameHunter, you are a real class act.

When someone flames it basically says: I am a loser sissy boy who makes no decisions and takes no responsibility, so I will tail, and then blame and flame the guy here who I was tailing because I have no backbone, no guts and no capping skills and now I am mad as hell because of this guy's picks.

You whiny little girls make real men look good in the eyes of the ladies (and make our job easy) because you are their other alternative. 

Keep up the good work and if you really want to help - post your picks, not so we can laugh - we are real men and don't waste our time laughing at the weak - but so we can quietly make some money on the fade.

Thank you

Take a hard look Vanzack....there is no such thing as long term line value. Why? Because Vegas moves that line all the time!

Hit and run....that is the only long term model that works...and that is the one I use.

Think it through...ask any bookie anywhere or any book maker in Vegas. The guys they love are the ones that play ten games a day. The guys they hate are the ones that play one game a month.

Long term? That's twenty years. If I play ten games a year in baseball, that's 200 games by 2030. 200 perfect storms. 200 plays where ALL of the factors that are important have fallen into place. Does that happen ten times a day, ten times a week, or even ten times a month? Absolutlely not, and we both know that's for sure.

Hit and run........That's a long term sustainable goal.

Successful long term gamblers have patience. Tons of it. Successful long term gamblers know that the answer to a cold streak is to back off. Successful long term gamblers know that nobody stays hot forever. Successful long term gamblers know that what worked last year may not work this year. They know that book makers make adjustments, leagues make adjustments, referees and umpires make adjustments, and most importantly they know that if they don't make adjustments as well......they will surely go broke.

Sure, being a sports investor is a daily grind...always searching for the right situations. It takes tremendous discipline and understanding to handicap 100 games and not bet on one of them.

How can somebody look at a card for 15 minutes, make plays on 7 games, and expect that they will be a winner? How can anybody call that a long term winning strategy?

Sports investing is not like the stock market. There is not one place you can put all of your money in the hopes of long term sustainable growth. Why?....Because of the ever changing "line". Hence, my opening paragraph about long term line value.....there just is no such thing. It's not tangible.

Keep playing 7 games a day. I like going out to Vegas twice a year.

43,000 posts and you don't have the energy to debate?

Why have 43,000 posts when you can get your point across in 43?

Patience, tremendous dedication, and a thorough understanding of your craft. That's how you become a successful gambler.

Risk 5000 units to win 200? Is that a long term sustainable business model? Maybe, but it's not the kind of risk an intelligent person might take.

Why have 43,000 posts when you can get your point across in 43?

For the life of me where did this guy come from and what the hell exactly is he trying to say?????

takes one sweep of the board, and right now the sweeps are on the wrong side..please bring back morgan freeman...

how bout a couple of parlays to double the unit wins?

so they say, really

parlays are for profit my man

I'll be here to back up up either way...

I'm not sure if Covers has a record for most dumb posts in a day but I'm sure you're coming close.

Sorry, you have it all wrong.  I cant even debate the substance because you have the premise all wrong - you clearly have a lack of understanding of probability, variance, and what it means to get an edge in a line.  I would have to teach you the basics before I could debate you because you have gone down a road that is akin to unicornland.

But since you are able to "hit and run" with such a high degree of precision and success, you should have a very bright future.

43,000 posts - in my earlier days here I would debate all comers - so if you search you will find a ton (too much) that I have written on the subject.  What I am saying is that you are not worth repeating it for the 100th time.  Even though you think you are saying something revolutionary and have a ton to teach us all - TRUST ME - I have heard your speech a million times here....

Look JoeD - read what thechiefactuary wrote above.  He had the energy to debate some of your points.  Ditto.

I love this one the most....

"The only way to minimize juice is by shopping around"??? So if I shop around for juice, it's going to get lower? What a ridiculous statement. Have you ever heard of a run line? Correct me if I'm wrong Chief, but if you are willing to offer up 1/2 a run, 1 run, or even 1 1/2 runs......doesn't the juice go down? Wow, smaller juice without shopping....a miracle.

Actuary = number crunching moron with no common sense.

Thats a gem.  And that is the whole reason I wont enter a debate with you.  Anyone who would post the above statement with such conviction is totally unaware of their own ignorance.

https://www.covers.com/postingforum/post01/showmessage.aspx?spt=27&sub=100747345

Or how about my favorite:
GH: If you're into value: Why would you bet the Money Line on any favorites when the Run Line just pays so off much better?!?!

Roused,

This is a good suggestion because analysis not only helps the one following to learn how to handicap, but it also helps the handicapper to better organize and structure his thoughts.  The main purpose posting here should be to help others by sharing your ideas and then weighing the responses both pro and con. 

So you're right, not having an opinion and just blindly tailing can result in bad advice. It can also be very hazardous to your bankroll and it usually isn't too long before you don't have one especialy if you lack self control.  Unfortunately, there aren't too many handicappers who are willing to share their time and expertise in detail for free and then if they lose, they not only lose their money but have to put up with the garbage that a few here give them. 

Most here don't do this, but the few that do often spoil it for everyone else especialy those guys like GH and Mr Bator, who have forgotten what the majority know on sports!. Sorry for going on the lrant, but I also hope to see GH bounce back with a few short writeups in the near future because he is one of the best here