No contest. The days of Giants glory with Cain and Lincecum on the hill
are far behind them. I call for a 75.4% win probability and that makes the line
safe to -305, but I would cut it at -290. You ALWAYS need some edge versus the
quoted number.
White Sox +143, Latos/Gausman
The wagering world is seriously undervaluing Latos here and jumping back
on the Orioles bandwagon.
Phillies +125, Bauer/Eickhoff
You’re kidding, right? Bauer over Eickhoff? Give me Eickhoff with a side
of fries, cold beer.
Marlins -110, Chen/Anderson
Ride the red hot Marlins, all important factors are in their favor.
Red Sox -127, Pineda/Porcello
I hope the Yankees like the view from the cellar, they are going to
spend most (possibly the balance) of the season there.
Rangers -107, Shoemaker/Holland
Holland is almost as seriously undervalued as Latos today.
Big card, but everything is coming into alignment and I feel good about
it.
BOL
Now and then even a BLIND squirrel can find an acorn
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To remove first post, remove entire topic.
MLB – 2016
21-22, $ +26.94, +0.3% RoR
4/30 Flat $200.00
Mets -207, Cain/deGrom
No contest. The days of Giants glory with Cain and Lincecum on the hill
are far behind them. I call for a 75.4% win probability and that makes the line
safe to -305, but I would cut it at -290. You ALWAYS need some edge versus the
quoted number.
White Sox +143, Latos/Gausman
The wagering world is seriously undervaluing Latos here and jumping back
on the Orioles bandwagon.
Phillies +125, Bauer/Eickhoff
You’re kidding, right? Bauer over Eickhoff? Give me Eickhoff with a side
of fries, cold beer.
Marlins -110, Chen/Anderson
Ride the red hot Marlins, all important factors are in their favor.
Red Sox -127, Pineda/Porcello
I hope the Yankees like the view from the cellar, they are going to
spend most (possibly the balance) of the season there.
Rangers -107, Shoemaker/Holland
Holland is almost as seriously undervalued as Latos today.
Big card, but everything is coming into alignment and I feel good about
it.
Can't say I disagree with any of these. I really wanted to play the Mets today, and was debating going with them as my 6th pick (I have a big card today as well). Ended up going with the Phillies F5 instead.
Good luck bud. Between the two of us, we are up about 2 Jacksons now haha.
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Can't say I disagree with any of these. I really wanted to play the Mets today, and was debating going with them as my 6th pick (I have a big card today as well). Ended up going with the Phillies F5 instead.
Good luck bud. Between the two of us, we are up about 2 Jacksons now haha.
Do you have time to go into more depth on your Tex pick? i was on LAA, and just curious what made you go with Tex in this matchup?
Shoemaker is struggling so far this season and I have lowered my rating on him to 59, versus the 66.2 I have on Holland. The differential of 7.2 is worth roughly 36 cents in line value alone, but it is slightly exponential in that the 59 rating is below the benchmark of 64 and the 66.2 is above that same benchmark. Two guys headed in opposite directions. The offensive probabilities are near equal. LAA 39.7 and Texas 40.0, but the pitching edge is more important and more likely to be the deciding factor.
Now and then even a BLIND squirrel can find an acorn
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Quote Originally Posted by tdotbenfiquista:
Do you have time to go into more depth on your Tex pick? i was on LAA, and just curious what made you go with Tex in this matchup?
Shoemaker is struggling so far this season and I have lowered my rating on him to 59, versus the 66.2 I have on Holland. The differential of 7.2 is worth roughly 36 cents in line value alone, but it is slightly exponential in that the 59 rating is below the benchmark of 64 and the 66.2 is above that same benchmark. Two guys headed in opposite directions. The offensive probabilities are near equal. LAA 39.7 and Texas 40.0, but the pitching edge is more important and more likely to be the deciding factor.
Must be that warm Arizona sunshine that you are basking in. With you on the Red and White Sox. Still looking at Miami and Texas. Good to see you like the Rangers.
Win big today Key
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Must be that warm Arizona sunshine that you are basking in. With you on the Red and White Sox. Still looking at Miami and Texas. Good to see you like the Rangers.
Key, I'm curious as to why you didn't take the Mets on the RL. I would also like your thoughts on the under (1st 5) in the DET/MIN game. Zimmerman and Duffy appear to have the makings for a low scoring first 5 in my opinion. Thanks, and good luck today
Money is a good servant, but a bad master
0
Key, I'm curious as to why you didn't take the Mets on the RL. I would also like your thoughts on the under (1st 5) in the DET/MIN game. Zimmerman and Duffy appear to have the makings for a low scoring first 5 in my opinion. Thanks, and good luck today
Key, I'm curious as to why you didn't take the Mets on the RL. I would also like your thoughts on the under (1st 5) in the DET/MIN game. Zimmerman and Duffy appear to have the makings for a low scoring first 5 in my opinion. Thanks, and good luck today
That game just does not trip my trigger in any way. I think the quoted lines are pretty close to the probability. Could be wrong, maybe everyone else has a better grip on that one than I do. BOL
Now and then even a BLIND squirrel can find an acorn
0
Quote Originally Posted by lltb43:
Key, I'm curious as to why you didn't take the Mets on the RL. I would also like your thoughts on the under (1st 5) in the DET/MIN game. Zimmerman and Duffy appear to have the makings for a low scoring first 5 in my opinion. Thanks, and good luck today
That game just does not trip my trigger in any way. I think the quoted lines are pretty close to the probability. Could be wrong, maybe everyone else has a better grip on that one than I do. BOL
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