MLB 5/05/16 Cinco de Mayo Steak Burritos

MLB – 2016

32-25, $ +1,687.57, +14.8% RoR

5/05 Flat $200.00 

Rangers +153, Holland/Happ

Nationals +134, Ross/Hendricks

As long as bettors get their feet wet in college foots and buckets, which most do, we will have them over valuing HFA in MLB. There are a lot of reasons they have that impression, some valid, some not. College football and basketball players, especially freshmen, are not accustomed to a lot of travel. Hotels, different meals, large intimidating crowds etc., all have impact, and it is not an easy thing to get over. MLB players by contrast are from a culture where they played 70 to 80 games per spring-summer in their high school and summer leagues and some even slightly more in college. Then there is the grind of minor league ball, perhaps with several different teams and no place really feels like “home”. The main concerns through all that is that your pitchers want to check out the mound for elevation and slope, and your position players want to check out fence distances, fair and foul both, and the general condition of the playing surface, but they see so many fields on the way up, and conditions are so near perfect in the majors, that most of that loses significance. They have eaten everything from Taco Bell to French Gourmet and slept in everything from Motel 6 to the Hyatt Regency. No big deal, no problem. Long story short: Do not pay 20 to 40 cents on the line for an advantage that is usually not worth more than a nickel (at best).

BOL  

win broslef

Have to go against you on Texas today.

just a note: there is nothing wrong with eating Taco Bell!  Something about that grade D beef that calls my name!!! 

People are still under the impression that the Jays hit lefties well...last year yes, this year no.

GL Element 

Good Luck Key 

With you on the Rangers today Key. That seems to be an awful good price for what should be a close game.

   

Im on both those plays myself, BOL Key

The guys that play their AAA ball at Omaha on the way to Kansas City get to eat at Taco John's. You never heard of a Royals player with constipation have you? That stuff is is a lifetime cure.

Hey Key,

 Key

For one thing you have Stan Barber behind the plate who is not a pitchers umpire, then you have two guys that are effective pitchers but not really strikeout pitchers. So, with that ump and these guys in a homer dome I think the under looks pretty shaky. If you play it, BOL 

I agree with Key Element, but I have to add some teams some years statistically have a really big home field advantage. I think in baseball confidence or lack there of gets in players heads and winning or losing become a self fulfilling prophecy.

No to include you, lordzud, since you seem to have a grasp of the situation, but most folks don't. As of this morning home teams were 199-210, and if you eliminate the Braves shameful 1-11 they are still only 198-199. There are some radically different records this early in the season and some are downright deceptive. Toronto is a no big deal either way, Washington and Chicago actually have better road records than home, and the Rangers will not go 54-27 at home and 31-50 at home. What happens is that winners win on the road and losers  lose at home, but home field has almost nothing to do with it. In over 30 years in the game I can honestly say I never heard a team say "We would have won that game AT HOME" or say "We would have lost that game ON THE ROAD". When managers, coaches or players say "It is so tough to win on the road" what they are really doing is using an old cliche built in excuse for losing.. 

Rangers will not go 54-27 at home and 31-50 on the road

BOL Bud

1st time in MLB history
that four 1st place teams are all p[laying
in the same city on the same day... Chgo.

Key where does your probability lie with Arizona tonight? They are +128ish on the ml and (maybe more intriguingly) they are +100 on their team total over 3.5. They have been crushing left handed pitching this year and are facing a young guy prone to wildness coming off a 114 pitch outing. 

Oh, and that strange fact for today even incl. Oak = SF & Balt = DC

Key forgot to mention that the roof is open it's hot and the wind appears to be blowing out. I know AC has great stuff but how do we not get 4 runs for the dbacks here?