All Forums | MLB Betting

MLB 5/14/16 Afternoon Delight

...
Participants:
Search model icon
Views: 7339
Posts: 46
 
Hall of Fame
Participation Meter
Joined: Dec, 2007
Posts: 23140
Posted: #1

MLB – 2016

39-38, $ +600.06, +3.9% RoR

5/13 Flat $200.00 

White Sox -146, Quintana/Nova

Quintana may not be Sale, but is a fine pitcher in his own right. Nova is no better than Severino so not much has changed here.

Cubs -261, Locke/Arrieta

Might as well get on the gravy train, the Pirates are sending out another lefty versus the Cubs, who just raised their lefty hitting projection to 40.2 with 5.5 earned runs per 9 versus the average lefty, and Locke is far below average.

Probably have something this evening as well, we’ll see.

BOL  

Now and then even a BLIND squirrel can find an acorn
 
Veteran
Participation Meter
Joined: Apr, 2014
Posts: 3044
Posted: #2
.  
No need to outrun the bear...just the next slowest guy
 
Veteran
Participation Meter
Joined: Sep, 2014
Posts: 3812
Posted: #3
39-38, betting $200 but up $600.

Noce work 
 
Prospect
Participation Meter
Joined: Sep, 2009
Posts: 152
Posted: #4
[Quote: Originally Posted by fadeORdie] 39-38, betting $200 but up $600.

underdogs... he hit a few in a row. this guy has a track record. i'm confident he WILL knock it out of the park 
 
Veteran
Participation Meter
Joined: Nov, 2013
Posts: 2734
Posted: #5
Taking Pitt today and hoping 
Got money this week so for $100 taking Pitt

Worth a shot
 
Prospect
Participation Meter
Joined: Sep, 2015
Posts: 72
Posted: #6
Have a week, 3-14 Lmaooo
 
Hall of Fame
Participation Meter
Joined: Feb, 2012
Posts: 22004
Posted: #7
With you on the Sox Key.
 
Veteran
Participation Meter
Joined: May, 2012
Posts: 1004
Posted: #8
 good luck man

stay patient. 
 
Captain
Participation Meter
Joined: Apr, 2014
Posts: 8292
Posted: #9
Desperate times call for desperate measures huh... Taking a -270 ml
 
All-Star
Participation Meter
Joined: Aug, 2007
Posts: 11372
Posted: #10
Big public play,but the public doesn't lose all the time!  GL Key and go Cubbies
 
Legend
Participation Meter
Joined: Dec, 2014
Posts: 47486
Posted: #11
GL Key

Oh Lord I heard you are under going desperation?
 
Legend
Participation Meter
Joined: Feb, 2005
Posts: 37777
Posted: #12
GL
 
Captain
Participation Meter
Joined: Apr, 2014
Posts: 6446
Posted: #13
On the White Sox myself. Good luck with the Cubs today. With Knight behind the plate, wind blowing out, and Locke on the mound... we should see some runs (I'm on the over F5).
 
Rookie
Participation Meter
Joined: Feb, 2015
Posts: 896
Posted: #14
 
Hall of Fame
Participation Meter
Joined: Dec, 2007
Posts: 23140
Posted: #15
Who is ready for some more gambling mathematics you don't understand?
According to the Covers Consensus 75% of the players like the Cubs, but that is fantasy money, no more significant than playing Monopoly and claiming your are a billionaire.
According to the books only 57.7% of the players like the Cubs, but that makes sense, since those folks are playing with real money. 
Obviously, thanks to the mathematics of real money, 43.3% of the real money played on that game is either serious about their choice and thinks it will win, or more likely some of that is "hope and pray" money, like we see exhibited here. 
The current line at 5 Dimes as I type this is -285 OK, that requires a win probability of 74% to reach the break even point. 74 wins, 24 losses, you are dead even. 
So, with a computed win probability of 83.9% I have, right now, a +9.9% value edge. 
The Cubs winning this exact matchup 84 time out of 100 is entirely reasonable, in fact; most folks would be surprised if the Pirates won 16 times. They would be gloating about their grand upsets and never admitting that the 84 losses cost them (at $100 per) $8,400 and the 16 wins at +258 only netted them $4,128.00, a net loss of $4,272.00. 
But what the heck, nobody ever accused the Covers Forum of being full of people that understood gambling mathematics. Basically the same crowd that said "I would never lay -245 on Kershaw or anyone else, that's stupid".
OK, so I lay it and laugh as I cash for $81.63 profit in an entirely no sweat game, and they don't come back and reiterate how "stupid" I was.  
Now and then even a BLIND squirrel can find an acorn
 
Prospect
Participation Meter
Joined: Mar, 2014
Posts: 178
Posted: #16
Thanks Key, what's a simple way to figure probability of a win when looking at the line, when you say 200 you are risking 200 or betting to win 200 ?

Thanks again always learn from you 
 
Prospect
Participation Meter
Joined: Sep, 2009
Posts: 152
Posted: #17
[Quote: Originally Posted by RyanHardy] Thanks Key, what's a simple way to figure probability of a win when looking at the line, when you say 200 you are risking 200 or betting to win 200 ?

Thanks again always learn from you 

he's risking 200 to win 81
 
Veteran
Participation Meter
Joined: May, 2015
Posts: 3074
Posted: #18
 
Legend
Participation Meter
Joined: Jan, 2003
Posts: 32137
Posted: #19


~~~~~ZOSO~~~~~
 
Hall of Fame
Participation Meter
Joined: Dec, 2007
Posts: 23140
Posted: #20
There is no "SIMPLE" way to compute probability to the best of my knowledge. I have about 1 to 2 hours day invested in data entry and another 1 to 2 in data computation and application. That does not include developmental time invested in the programs. If I could simplify it I would be glad to do that, but this is part of the problem with the "use a system and get rich quick" aspect most gamblers subscribe to. It isn't easy and it isn't quick, and most people simply will not WORK hard enough at it to ever get successful. 

The boys on the board can get in their licks at any given time A spot view of a given day or week is easy to pluck out of context, but if someone posted odds on the board as to what handicappers were most likely to have a winning season I would be in the top 5.
BOL  
Now and then even a BLIND squirrel can find an acorn
 
Rookie
Participation Meter
Joined: Aug, 2012
Posts: 686
Posted: #21
I think he's just asking how to get the probability from just the lines.

In which case it is

( - ( 'minus' moneyline odds ) ) / ( - ( 'minus' moneyline odds ) ) + 100

and

100 / ( 'plus' moneyline odds + 100 )
 
Veteran
Participation Meter
Joined: Jul, 2006
Posts: 3251
Posted: #22
What a horrible week...
 
Hall of Fame
Participation Meter
Joined: Dec, 2007
Posts: 23140
Posted: #23
Final Card:

White Sox -146, Quintana/Nova

Cubs -261, Locke/Arrieta

Mets -126, Verrett/Butler

I have to stick with two teams that had distinct advantages last night and keep the same advantages, maybe even a little better

Cardinals -104, Martinez/Kazmir

BOL  



Now and then even a BLIND squirrel can find an acorn
 
Banned
Participation Meter
Joined: Jun, 2015
Posts: 165
Posted: #24
I asked myself all morning what could wrong with a White Sox/Cubs parlay. Couldn't find a single angle to get me off the play. Apparently all I had to do was come and look in this guy's thread. Anything he touches turns to sh*t.
 
 
Captain
Participation Meter
Joined: Dec, 2005
Posts: 6906
Posted: #25
Much better at -250 Favs anyway 

All Forums | MLB Betting
About Us
Contact Us
Careers
Our Team
Brand
Testimonials
Betting Guides
Sportsbook Reviews
Sports Betting News
Podcasts
Responsible Gaming
Sports Betting
US Betting Sites
Canada Betting Sites
Canada Casinos
Best Betting Apps
Contests
Streak Survivor
King of Covers
Ultimate Race
Office Pools
The Covers community has
618,670
lifetime members worldwide
Covers 25 Years Logo Established in 1995,
Covers is the world
leader in sports
betting information.
Site Map Help Privacy Terms of Service youtube logo facebook logo twitter logo instagram logo linkedin logo google news logo
Covers is verified safe by: Evalon Logo GPWA Logo GDPR Logo GeoTrust Logo Evalon Logo
Copyright © 1995 - 2024 CS Media Limited All Rights Reserved.

If you choose to make use of any information on this website including online sports betting services from any websites that may be featured on this website, we strongly recommend that you carefully check your local laws before doing so.It is your sole responsibility to understand your local laws and observe them strictly.Covers does not provide any advice or guidance as to the legality of online sports betting or other online gambling activities within your jurisdiction and you are responsible for complying with laws that are applicable to you in your relevant locality.Covers disclaims all liability associated with your use of this website and use of any information contained on it.As a condition of using this website, you agree to hold the owner of this website harmless from any claims arising from your use of any services on any third party website that may be featured by Covers.