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MLB 5/14/16 Afternoon Delight

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Posted: #1

MLB – 2016

39-38, $ +600.06, +3.9% RoR

5/13 Flat $200.00 

White Sox -146, Quintana/Nova

Quintana may not be Sale, but is a fine pitcher in his own right. Nova is no better than Severino so not much has changed here.

Cubs -261, Locke/Arrieta

Might as well get on the gravy train, the Pirates are sending out another lefty versus the Cubs, who just raised their lefty hitting projection to 40.2 with 5.5 earned runs per 9 versus the average lefty, and Locke is far below average.

Probably have something this evening as well, we’ll see.

BOL  

Now and then even a BLIND squirrel can find an acorn
 
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Posted: #2
.  
No need to outrun the bear...just the next slowest guy
 
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Posted: #3
39-38, betting $200 but up $600.

Noce work 
 
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Posted: #4
[Quote: Originally Posted by fadeORdie] 39-38, betting $200 but up $600.

underdogs... he hit a few in a row. this guy has a track record. i'm confident he WILL knock it out of the park 
 
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Posted: #5
Taking Pitt today and hoping 
Got money this week so for $100 taking Pitt

Worth a shot
 
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Posted: #6
Have a week, 3-14 Lmaooo
 
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Posted: #7
With you on the Sox Key.
 
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Posted: #8
 good luck man

stay patient. 
 
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Posted: #9
Desperate times call for desperate measures huh... Taking a -270 ml
 
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Big public play,but the public doesn't lose all the time!  GL Key and go Cubbies
 
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Posted: #11
GL Key

Oh Lord I heard you are under going desperation?
 
Legend
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Posted: #12
GL
 
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Posted: #13
On the White Sox myself. Good luck with the Cubs today. With Knight behind the plate, wind blowing out, and Locke on the mound... we should see some runs (I'm on the over F5).
 
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Posted: #14
 
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Who is ready for some more gambling mathematics you don't understand?
According to the Covers Consensus 75% of the players like the Cubs, but that is fantasy money, no more significant than playing Monopoly and claiming your are a billionaire.
According to the books only 57.7% of the players like the Cubs, but that makes sense, since those folks are playing with real money. 
Obviously, thanks to the mathematics of real money, 43.3% of the real money played on that game is either serious about their choice and thinks it will win, or more likely some of that is "hope and pray" money, like we see exhibited here. 
The current line at 5 Dimes as I type this is -285 OK, that requires a win probability of 74% to reach the break even point. 74 wins, 24 losses, you are dead even. 
So, with a computed win probability of 83.9% I have, right now, a +9.9% value edge. 
The Cubs winning this exact matchup 84 time out of 100 is entirely reasonable, in fact; most folks would be surprised if the Pirates won 16 times. They would be gloating about their grand upsets and never admitting that the 84 losses cost them (at $100 per) $8,400 and the 16 wins at +258 only netted them $4,128.00, a net loss of $4,272.00. 
But what the heck, nobody ever accused the Covers Forum of being full of people that understood gambling mathematics. Basically the same crowd that said "I would never lay -245 on Kershaw or anyone else, that's stupid".
OK, so I lay it and laugh as I cash for $81.63 profit in an entirely no sweat game, and they don't come back and reiterate how "stupid" I was.  
Now and then even a BLIND squirrel can find an acorn
 
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Posted: #16
Thanks Key, what's a simple way to figure probability of a win when looking at the line, when you say 200 you are risking 200 or betting to win 200 ?

Thanks again always learn from you 
 
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Posted: #17
[Quote: Originally Posted by RyanHardy] Thanks Key, what's a simple way to figure probability of a win when looking at the line, when you say 200 you are risking 200 or betting to win 200 ?

Thanks again always learn from you 

he's risking 200 to win 81
 
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~~~~~ZOSO~~~~~
 
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There is no "SIMPLE" way to compute probability to the best of my knowledge. I have about 1 to 2 hours day invested in data entry and another 1 to 2 in data computation and application. That does not include developmental time invested in the programs. If I could simplify it I would be glad to do that, but this is part of the problem with the "use a system and get rich quick" aspect most gamblers subscribe to. It isn't easy and it isn't quick, and most people simply will not WORK hard enough at it to ever get successful. 

The boys on the board can get in their licks at any given time A spot view of a given day or week is easy to pluck out of context, but if someone posted odds on the board as to what handicappers were most likely to have a winning season I would be in the top 5.
BOL  
Now and then even a BLIND squirrel can find an acorn
 
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Posted: #21
I think he's just asking how to get the probability from just the lines.

In which case it is

( - ( 'minus' moneyline odds ) ) / ( - ( 'minus' moneyline odds ) ) + 100

and

100 / ( 'plus' moneyline odds + 100 )
 
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Posted: #22
What a horrible week...
 
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Posted: #23
Final Card:

White Sox -146, Quintana/Nova

Cubs -261, Locke/Arrieta

Mets -126, Verrett/Butler

I have to stick with two teams that had distinct advantages last night and keep the same advantages, maybe even a little better

Cardinals -104, Martinez/Kazmir

BOL  



Now and then even a BLIND squirrel can find an acorn
 
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Posted: #24
I asked myself all morning what could wrong with a White Sox/Cubs parlay. Couldn't find a single angle to get me off the play. Apparently all I had to do was come and look in this guy's thread. Anything he touches turns to sh*t.
 
 
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Much better at -250 Favs anyway 

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