MLB 5/16/17

Question

5/16/1730-43-3, RoR &#x2013;8.35% (vs 11/10 odds 48%) Rays F5, ML, &#x2B;152, Odorizzi / SalazarBOLRays:  The Rays problem is their bullpen. They stand 19-22 overall, but in the 5 inning head to head matchups their starters stand 25-11-5, and that is enough to lead every other team but Houston, where they tie at 71%. Odorizzi personally is 5-1 for quality starts and 4-2 head to head. He yields nothing to Salazar at 2-2 qs and 3-4 h2h. Nor does the Rays offense fail with a 41.5 rating versus right handed starters and a 17-7-3 record in 5 innings. The line for 5 inning games is almost always based on the full game line even though situational circumstances may be entirely different. One of Salazar&#x2019;s major problems this year has been not getting off to a good start. He is vulnerable while Odorizzi has been rock solid. Bonus dollars in the 5 inning game created by the 9 inning probability is impossible to pass up.

KeyElement · Answer

5/16/1730-43-3, RoR &#x2013;8.35% (vs 11/10 odds 48%) Rays F5, ML, &#x2B;152, Odorizzi / SalazarBOLRays:  The Rays problem is their bullpen. They stand 19-22 overall, but in the 5 inning head to head matchups their starters stand 25-11-5, and that is enough to lead every other team but Houston, where they tie at 71%. Odorizzi personally is 5-1 for quality starts and 4-2 head to head. He yields nothing to Salazar at 2-2 qs and 3-4 h2h. Nor does the Rays offense fail with a 41.5 rating versus right handed starters and a 17-7-3 record in 5 innings. The line for 5 inning games is almost always based on the full game line even though situational circumstances may be entirely different. One of Salazar&#x2019;s major problems this year has been not getting off to a good start. He is vulnerable while Odorizzi has been rock solid. Bonus dollars in the 5 inning game created by the 9 inning probability is impossible to pass up.

ravensfan52 · Answer

Good luck sir!

straight_cash · Answer

BOL Key

KeyElement · Answer

Obviously Salazar does not balance. That should be 2-5 for quality starts and 3-4 head to head. Either way he needs the offense and bullpen to carry him and we don't face the bullpen in the first 5 innings unless Salazar really gets mashed.

Tad · Answer

but... Roll Tribe!

KeyElement · Answer

So, you would be extremely happy if I won the wager, but the Tribe came back for the game win? OK, I can live with that.

icegun98 · Answer

Green gremlin is still alive

Natty68 · Answer

Key.......it goes without saying I&#x27;m a huge fan.  You&#x27;ve forgotten more about capping baseball than I&#x27;ll ever know.  It also goes without saying I ask this with the utmost respect.  Do you ever consider saying the heck with it and reverting back to your younger days and just saying screw the &#x27;value&#x27; and the need to get &#x27;the best of it&#x27; and plus money and just going back to picking winners.  God and everyone else knows how lethal you would be if you were willing to eat a little juice and just..........pick winners.  I&#x27;m not talking about laying 180 every night,  just,  ya know,  pick winners.  I guess,  as amateur,  I just don&#x27;t understand what seems to be an obsession with taking dogs every day.

Learnersrealm · Answer

Im on Rays too, but FG. I was seriously considering F5 because of BP. GL to us

fadeORdie · Answer

Thought about Rays but for reasons I won&#x27;t explain it&#x27;s not a good pick. Your F5 maybe yes, but FG no. Bol.

ByTheBay · Answer

Is this our only play of the day Key?

ByTheBay · Answer

Any value in my Giants at &#x2B;152? That&#x27;s a massive home dog for a team that has won four in a row and just put up 8 the night before.

ByTheBay · Answer

Giants and Dodgers nearly identical vs lefties splits

Wizz_KIDD35 · Answer

Just take the over in this game

In2it · Answer

First 5 on TB is the only way to go in this game with Cleveland&#x27;s 12-1 record last 13 vs. the Rays.BOL!

KeyElement · Answer

No, I am not tempted to change my ways because I didn&#x27;t get where I am by changing strategies instead of sticking with what I know and all the solid gambling principles behind it. What you are saying is what the "you need to hit 60% folks believe, and most of them are not making any money because they are concerned with win% and not RoR. What I am tempted to do is add a favorite a day, on which I guarantee to hit 60%, but whether or not it makes money over the course of the season is anyone&#x27;s guess. I could ignore the odds and 60% would be no big deal.

JuiceBook · Answer

Win % correlates with profit

KeyElement · Answer

Furthermore; Changing strategies and constantly trying something else is the mark of a guy that does not really know what he is doing and just groping in the dark out of desperation. Just look at how many posts you see that start with "I&#x27;ve got a new system", meaning all the prior ones were failures (and this one probably will be too). Groping, groping, groping.I am flexible, I make adjustments, and that is all I change, not the overall strategy.

KeyElement · Answer

Football? Yes. Basketball? Yes. Baseball. No. When you look at win% in foots or buckets it is almost always related to 11/10 odds, and the correlation is there. Baseball is wagered on odds, and hitting 60% at -150 is no better than than hitting 40% at &#x2B;150. There are always plenty of posters willing to post their W/L record in this forum and NEVER, I mean NEVER, keep an accurate record of profit and loss, much less RoR. I&#x27;ve had it with the subject. I will do what I do and finish the season with a provable RoR. &#x27;nuff said.

NaciremaDream · Answer

Any thoughts on the Jays/Braves?Estrada is the real deal and the Jays don&#x27;t hit lefties but Garcia is mediocre.Jays ML, Under 8.5?

tinfoils · Answer

Good luck Key!

KeyElement · Answer

I think the game line is a little high, should be around -120, but the under looks pretty good. BOL

GuelphGolfer · Answer

the public is on Tampa, Cleveland is not as good as they should be right now

MLB 5/16/17

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