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MLB 5/16/17

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Posts: 51

KeyElement

Hall of Fame

Joined: Dec, 2007

Posts: 23750

Posted: May. 16, 2017 - 9:47 AM ET #1

5/16/17

30-43-3, RoR –8.35% (vs 11/10 odds 48%)

Rays F5, ML, +152, Odorizzi / Salazar

BOL

Rays: The Rays problem is their bullpen. They stand 19-22 overall, but in the 5 inning head to head matchups their starters stand 25-11-5, and that is enough to lead every other team but Houston, where they tie at 71%. Odorizzi personally is 5-1 for quality starts and 4-2 head to head. He yields nothing to Salazar at 2-2 qs and 3-4 h2h. Nor does the Rays offense fail with a 41.5 rating versus right handed starters and a 17-7-3 record in 5 innings. The line for 5 inning games is almost always based on the full game line even though situational circumstances may be entirely different. One of Salazar’s major problems this year has been not getting off to a good start. He is vulnerable while Odorizzi has been rock solid. Bonus dollars in the 5 inning game created by the 9 inning probability is impossible to pass up.

Now and then even a BLIND squirrel can find an acorn

ravensfan52

Veteran

Joined: Oct, 2006

Posts: 1273

Posted: May. 16, 2017 - 9:48 AM ET #2

Good luck sir!

straight_cash

Captain

Joined: Aug, 2015

Posts: 7463

Posted: May. 16, 2017 - 10:01 AM ET #3

BOL Key

KeyElement

Hall of Fame

Joined: Dec, 2007

Posts: 23750

Posted: May. 16, 2017 - 10:05 AM ET #4

Obviously Salazar does not balance. That should be 2-5 for quality starts and 3-4 head to head. Either way he needs the offense and bullpen to carry him and we don't face the bullpen in the first 5 innings unless Salazar really gets mashed.

Now and then even a BLIND squirrel can find an acorn

Tad

Prospect

Joined: Oct, 2010

Posts: 306

Posted: May. 16, 2017 - 10:11 AM ET #5

but... Roll Tribe!

KeyElement

Hall of Fame

Joined: Dec, 2007

Posts: 23750

Posted: May. 16, 2017 - 10:32 AM ET #6

Quote Originally Posted by Tad:

but... Roll Tribe!

So, you would be extremely happy if I won the wager, but the Tribe came back for the game win? OK, I can live with that.

Now and then even a BLIND squirrel can find an acorn

icegun98

Veteran

Joined: Jul, 2006

Posts: 3251

Posted: May. 16, 2017 - 10:46 AM ET #7

Green gremlin is still alive

BetFriends

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Joined: May, 2015

Posts: 1375

Posted: May. 16, 2017 - 10:48 AM ET #8

BetFriends

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Joined: May, 2015

Posts: 1375

Posted: May. 16, 2017 - 10:48 AM ET #9

Natty68

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Joined: Apr, 2014

Posts: 3309

Posted: May. 16, 2017 - 11:18 AM ET #10

Key.......it goes without saying I'm a huge fan. You've forgotten more about capping baseball than I'll ever know. It also goes without saying I ask this with the utmost respect. Do you ever consider saying the heck with it and reverting back to your younger days and just saying screw the 'value' and the need to get 'the best of it' and plus money and just going back to picking winners. God and everyone else knows how lethal you would be if you were willing to eat a little juice and just..........pick winners. I'm not talking about laying 180 every night, just, ya know, pick winners. I guess, as amateur, I just don't understand what seems to be an obsession with taking dogs every day.

As long as they pretend to pay me I will pretend to work

Learnersrealm

Veteran

Joined: Jul, 2013

Posts: 3997

Posted: May. 16, 2017 - 11:27 AM ET #11

Im on Rays too, but FG. I was seriously considering F5 because of BP. GL to us

fadeORdie

Veteran

Joined: Sep, 2014

Posts: 3812

Posted: May. 16, 2017 - 11:38 AM ET #12

Thought about Rays but for reasons I won't explain it's not a good pick. Your F5 maybe yes, but FG no. Bol.

ByTheBay

Veteran

Joined: Feb, 2014

Posts: 4793

Posted: May. 16, 2017 - 12:10 PM ET #13

Is this our only play of the day Key?

ByTheBay

Veteran

Joined: Feb, 2014

Posts: 4793

Posted: May. 16, 2017 - 12:13 PM ET #14

Any value in my Giants at +152? That's a massive home dog for a team that has won four in a row and just put up 8 the night before.

ByTheBay

Veteran

Joined: Feb, 2014

Posts: 4793

Posted: May. 16, 2017 - 12:16 PM ET #15

Giants and Dodgers nearly identical vs lefties splits

Wizz_KIDD35

Legend

Joined: Apr, 2016

Posts: 31133

Posted: May. 16, 2017 - 12:54 PM ET #16

Just take the over in this game

STAY HUNGRY MY FRIENDS!!!!!

In2it

Veteran

Joined: Dec, 2014

Posts: 2656

Posted: May. 16, 2017 - 12:59 PM ET #17

First 5 on TB is the only way to go in this game with Cleveland's 12-1 record last 13 vs. the Rays.

BOL!

KeyElement

Hall of Fame

Joined: Dec, 2007

Posts: 23750

Posted: May. 16, 2017 - 1:37 PM ET #18

Quote Originally Posted by Natty68:

Key.......it goes without saying I'm a huge fan. You've forgotten more about capping baseball than I'll ever know. It also goes without saying I ask this with the utmost respect. Do you ever consider saying the heck with it and reverting back to your younger days and just saying screw the 'value' and the need to get 'the best of it' and plus money and just going back to picking winners. God and everyone else knows how lethal you would be if you were willing to eat a little juice and just..........pick winners. I'm not talking about laying 180 every night, just, ya know, pick winners. I guess, as amateur, I just don't understand what seems to be an obsession with taking dogs every day.

No, I am not tempted to change my ways because I didn't get where I am by changing strategies instead of sticking with what I know and all the solid gambling principles behind it. What you are saying is what the "you need to hit 60% folks believe, and most of them are not making any money because they are concerned with win% and not RoR.

What I am tempted to do is add a favorite a day, on which I guarantee to hit 60%, but whether or not it makes money over the course of the season is anyone's guess. I could ignore the odds and 60% would be no big deal.

Now and then even a BLIND squirrel can find an acorn

JuiceBook

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Joined: Aug, 2016

Posts: 1145

Posted: May. 16, 2017 - 1:42 PM ET #19

Quote Originally Posted by KeyElement:

No, I am not tempted to change my ways because I didn't get where I am by changing strategies instead of sticking with what I know and all the solid gambling principles behind it. What you are saying is what the "you need to hit 60% folks believe, and most of them are not making any money because they are concerned with win% and not RoR.

Win % correlates with profit

KeyElement

Hall of Fame

Joined: Dec, 2007

Posts: 23750

Posted: May. 16, 2017 - 1:43 PM ET #20

Furthermore; Changing strategies and constantly trying something else is the mark of a guy that does not really know what he is doing and just groping in the dark out of desperation.

Just look at how many posts you see that start with "I've got a new system", meaning all the prior ones were failures (and this one probably will be too). Groping, groping, groping.

I am flexible, I make adjustments, and that is all I change, not the overall strategy.

Now and then even a BLIND squirrel can find an acorn

KeyElement

Hall of Fame

Joined: Dec, 2007

Posts: 23750

Posted: May. 16, 2017 - 1:50 PM ET #21

Quote Originally Posted by JuiceBook:

Win % correlates with profit

Football? Yes. Basketball? Yes. Baseball. No. When you look at win% in foots or buckets it is almost always related to 11/10 odds, and the correlation is there. Baseball is wagered on odds, and hitting 60% at -150 is no better than than hitting 40% at +150. There are always plenty of posters willing to post their W/L record in this forum and NEVER, I mean NEVER, keep an accurate record of profit and loss, much less RoR.

I've had it with the subject. I will do what I do and finish the season with a provable RoR. 'nuff said.

Now and then even a BLIND squirrel can find an acorn