I was accused of dishonesty yesterday so of course I went
and reviewed the record and there was a small. insignificant error, which I have corrected. When
trolls suggest dishonesty I can only accept that they are judging from the
perspective of how they view themselves, morally and ethically bankrupt and
assuming that everyone else is just the same.
Amen. So be it. Proof once again of the kind of jealousy that will drive
the scum to attack a solid record of honesty and winning that goes back eight
years. There is nothing to be done about that on Covers since they sell
advertising for a living and anything that drives site hits is not only
permissible, but almost encouraged and condoned. Amen, AMEN, I say to you: The
anonymity of the Internet does not mean there will never come a day of
reckoning.
Now and then even a BLIND squirrel can find an acorn
0
To remove first post, remove entire topic.
I was accused of dishonesty yesterday so of course I went
and reviewed the record and there was a small. insignificant error, which I have corrected. When
trolls suggest dishonesty I can only accept that they are judging from the
perspective of how they view themselves, morally and ethically bankrupt and
assuming that everyone else is just the same.
Amen. So be it. Proof once again of the kind of jealousy that will drive
the scum to attack a solid record of honesty and winning that goes back eight
years. There is nothing to be done about that on Covers since they sell
advertising for a living and anything that drives site hits is not only
permissible, but almost encouraged and condoned. Amen, AMEN, I say to you: The
anonymity of the Internet does not mean there will never come a day of
reckoning.
What’s the scoop here? Why does all that $20 a game money keep
supporting the Yankees? I don’t see a good team in the Yankees nor do I see a
good pitcher in Pineda. Toss crap at Greinke if you want to but he is still
worth 43 cents of line value over Pineda and the D-bax also have a better
matchup offense for this game and home field advantage. I have a theory on who
drives the line on the Yankees. I think it is millions of retired New Yorkers
now living in the Sn Belt that bet their beloved Yankees every day, regardless
of their probability of winning. If you know anything about the economy or home
based love culture in Arizona, you will know they simply don’t exist. So, if a
thousand sun belt retirees bet 20 bucks on the Yankees and one wise individual
bets a 1,000 bucks on the D-bax the line still goes down, because the bookie is
sided on the Yankees!
Dodgers -305, Weaver/Kershaw
There is a point at which bettors start to see value in the dog whether
they stand a respectable chance of winning or not, so they bet the dog, and
keep the price of the favorite lower than true probability says it should be. I
handicap the Dodgers with an 84.4% chance of winning tonight, which makes the
breakeven point on wagering probability -535. But, the beauty of it is that
45.7% of the bettors out there think they see a really big “value play” with
the Angels and are keeping the line much lower than it should be. At the end of
the game the “value” will rest with the winner, just like it always does.
BOL
Now and then even a BLIND squirrel can find an acorn
0
MLB – 2016
41-42, $ +102.82, +.006% RoR
5/17 Flat $200.00
Diamondbacks -124, Greinke/Pineda
What’s the scoop here? Why does all that $20 a game money keep
supporting the Yankees? I don’t see a good team in the Yankees nor do I see a
good pitcher in Pineda. Toss crap at Greinke if you want to but he is still
worth 43 cents of line value over Pineda and the D-bax also have a better
matchup offense for this game and home field advantage. I have a theory on who
drives the line on the Yankees. I think it is millions of retired New Yorkers
now living in the Sn Belt that bet their beloved Yankees every day, regardless
of their probability of winning. If you know anything about the economy or home
based love culture in Arizona, you will know they simply don’t exist. So, if a
thousand sun belt retirees bet 20 bucks on the Yankees and one wise individual
bets a 1,000 bucks on the D-bax the line still goes down, because the bookie is
sided on the Yankees!
Dodgers -305, Weaver/Kershaw
There is a point at which bettors start to see value in the dog whether
they stand a respectable chance of winning or not, so they bet the dog, and
keep the price of the favorite lower than true probability says it should be. I
handicap the Dodgers with an 84.4% chance of winning tonight, which makes the
breakeven point on wagering probability -535. But, the beauty of it is that
45.7% of the bettors out there think they see a really big “value play” with
the Angels and are keeping the line much lower than it should be. At the end of
the game the “value” will rest with the winner, just like it always does.
Dude, get over yourself, since when is one unit "insignificant". We pointed out a flaw in your calculations which was indeed correct and all of a sudden you attack us as morally bankrupt?
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Dude, get over yourself, since when is one unit "insignificant". We pointed out a flaw in your calculations which was indeed correct and all of a sudden you attack us as morally bankrupt?
Don't disagree with the picks, but home field advantage? Don't you normally say that is worthless? Greinke has done his worst this year at his new home too.
Good Luck!
0
Don't disagree with the picks, but home field advantage? Don't you normally say that is worthless? Greinke has done his worst this year at his new home too.
...When
trolls suggest dishonesty I can only accept that they are judging from the
perspective of how they view themselves,...
True in life generally. Negative people view things negatively no matter how positive it is, and assume thats how other people view things as well. Pity, but such as life.
0
Quote Originally Posted by KeyElement:
...When
trolls suggest dishonesty I can only accept that they are judging from the
perspective of how they view themselves,...
True in life generally. Negative people view things negatively no matter how positive it is, and assume thats how other people view things as well. Pity, but such as life.
Amazatron, OK, sorry, it was one of your troll buddies, all you did was make was make your point negatively. No one argued with dishonest, and that was what I didn't like and didn't deserve.
Now and then even a BLIND squirrel can find an acorn
0
Amazatron, OK, sorry, it was one of your troll buddies, all you did was make was make your point negatively. No one argued with dishonest, and that was what I didn't like and didn't deserve.
Don't disagree with the picks, but home field advantage? Don't you normally say that is worthless? Greinke has done his worst this year at his new home too.
Good Luck!
I have never said HFA was worthless, just that it is overvalued. The books have to build in 20 to 40 cents for something that is 5 to 10 cents of actual value.
Sooner or later Greinke will look like Greinke, and short term trends will be meaningless. His 7.28 will move toward his 3.79. If he makes 16 home starts the D-bax are not going to go 4-12 in those starts. Maybe wagering on short term trends is what has driven the line down?
Now and then even a BLIND squirrel can find an acorn
0
Quote Originally Posted by daddybets:
Don't disagree with the picks, but home field advantage? Don't you normally say that is worthless? Greinke has done his worst this year at his new home too.
Good Luck!
I have never said HFA was worthless, just that it is overvalued. The books have to build in 20 to 40 cents for something that is 5 to 10 cents of actual value.
Sooner or later Greinke will look like Greinke, and short term trends will be meaningless. His 7.28 will move toward his 3.79. If he makes 16 home starts the D-bax are not going to go 4-12 in those starts. Maybe wagering on short term trends is what has driven the line down?
1997 through 2003 Pedro Martinez was 118-36 in those 7 years. Complete dominance. We could be witnessing the same type of stretch run here with Kershaw. I'm not ready to crown him yet but getting close.
GL tonight Key.
~~~~~ZOSO~~~~~
0
-300 or even -400 Baseball Lines.
1997 through 2003 Pedro Martinez was 118-36 in those 7 years. Complete dominance. We could be witnessing the same type of stretch run here with Kershaw. I'm not ready to crown him yet but getting close.
I'd like your thoughts on the lefties matchup in chicago tnite. sox have been scuffling a little and Rodon hasn't been sharp but i think he'll have a solid outing against houston and keuchel on a cool chicago night.
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I'd like your thoughts on the lefties matchup in chicago tnite. sox have been scuffling a little and Rodon hasn't been sharp but i think he'll have a solid outing against houston and keuchel on a cool chicago night.
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