MLB – 2016
54-51, + $859.16, +4.09% RoR
5/22, 1-1, +64.00
5/23 Flat $200.00
Nationals -146, Colon/Gonzalez
Q: Who are
the three worst lefty hitting teams in MLB? A: Mets, Braves and Astros. A combined 9-26, but the Mets 3-5 is a
very lucky number as they produce only 1.42 earned runs per 9 innings versus
lefty. Their 3 wins were produced with pitching, as they averaged only 3.33
runs per game versus Verrett, Finnegan and Kazmir. I called for a win in this
matchup for the Nationals at New York 5 days ago and it sailed in, 7-1. Nothing
has changed in either teams prospectus and the old theory about reversals in
repeated matchups a week later is nonsense, meaningless, and probably the only
factor holding the line from -210, where it should be.
Royals -115, Kennedy/Nolasco
Nolasco’s luck has about run out and we can expect him to start looking
more and more like the Ricky that gave us a 12-23 quality start record the last
2 seasons. So, at his current 3-5, 37.5% he is still a little over what his
recent history indicates, 34.3%. Kennedy has put together a 6-1 so far on top
of a 20-10 at San Diego last year. Is it time he was given a little more
respect? I think so, and his teammates are disappointed they did not pull off
the sweep at the White Sox as they start to make their move in the division.
Motivation, you know.
Dodgers -388, Finnegan/Kershaw
Baseball bettors may never understand true value. They see value in
favorites up to a point, say between -110 and -160, then as they look at lines
they begin to see value in the dog, not because of probability, but because the
money is starting to look good. When that happens line makers and bookies are
forced to keep the actual true probability line down, because bettors that
think plus money means value are starting to jump the dog. My computed
probability on a Kershaw win stands at 93.5% and that would justify a line up
to -1367, so as far as I am concerned Kershaw-Dodgers is the “value” side of
the line. To reiterate a point I have
made before, the line alone does not reveal value, only win probability
versus the proffered line indicates probable value.
IF Cleveland Indians beat Chicago
White Sox First Game THEN
White Sox -113, Anderson/Johnson
I would like the “rebound” effect on my side although the play should be
solid either way. Depending on the outcome of game one I may take the IF
requirement off, but if the Tribe takes the first game I definitely want the
ChiSox the second one.
BOL
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