MLB – 2016
90-81-1, + $1,983.54, +5.77%
RoR
6/17, 1-3, -366.00
6/18 Flat $200.00
Reds +242, Reed/Keuchel
Best available line on the Astros as I type is -265. That means they
need a 72.6% chance of winning just to be at the break even point over the
course of this matchup being played 1,000 times. 72.6% Really? They are a 47%
team overall and 40% in Keuchel’s starts and 6-13 versus lefty. They have turned in only 4 quality performances
in their last 15 games versus lefty and are producing just 3.5 earned runs per
9 in that category. I guess the 72.6% is based on both the Astros prior season
and Keuchel’s Cy Young, but it does not resemble anything like a reasonable
number.
Rockies +123, Chatwood/Chen
Ace on the hill as a dog. Looks like the public is betting home team and
“the better team”, neither of which may be true on this given day. This one is
much closer to coin flip but the bonus on the dog makes it a play.
Indians -212, Shields/Salazar
Fire the G.M. He should have addressed the Sox real need, a couple guys
that can hit right handed pitching. Even if Shields were in prime form, which
he obviously is not, he in no way addresses that problem. Salazar should kick
butt and take names today. With the Royals and Tigers playing each other the
Tribe know they can gain another game on someone today and they won’t let up. With
an 83.6% win probability I could play the Indians up to -367 and still have a
5% edge versus the quoted number, but it won’t be necessary because at -200 the
public starts to see value in the dog, whether it exists or not.
Cubs -247, Niese/Lester
See above. Miss match. Pirates have neither the pitching or the offense
here. Cubs roll.
Nationals -222, Scherzer/Rea
No, Max will not come completely unglued after his outstanding
performance versus the Cubs. He is a professional and what you see is what you
get, a heck of a lot more pitching and offensive potential than the Padres are
putting on the field today.
I am probably going to have one more if a line moves as I expect it to.
Sorry we (I) missed out on the Rangers at +$ yesterday. I was waiting for that, but
fatigue caught up with me and I crashed like a duck hit with double ought
buckshot. I even slept through all the games last night.
Now I can sit back and await the usual. Too much juice! Too many road
teams! Yer nuts! Yer stupid!
BOL
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