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MLB 8/26/16

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MLB – 2016

166-152-3, $ +2,939.74, +4.59% RoR

8/25, 1-1, +33.60

8/26, Flat $240.00

Tigers -206, Nolasco/Verlander

No contest: Pitching + offense + run production + home field + momentum + Indians blood available.

Pirates -116, Vogelsong/Garza

You know how Jim Rome says “don’t look Raider fan in the eye”? Well, I feel the same about Matt Garza, especially as he declines and Vogelsong continues to impress.

Astros -138, Smyly/Fiers

Little known facts: Astros are 9-3 for quality performances out of the break versus lefty starters, with 6 straight qp’s and a 9.76 oera in those games.

Cubs, RL, -1.5, +153, Montgomery/Norris

Perfect storm: Montgomery is undervalued. Dodgers just got shut down by another lefty (Moore) last night. Norris is over the hill. Cubs have 12-3 qp record with a 7.20 oera over that span and 10.80 the last 5.

BOL  

Crashdavis “fade the Braves” is now 22-15, -275 (Diamondbacks closed -168)

Now and then even a BLIND squirrel can find an acorn
 
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Posted: #2
gl today KEY









 
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I like Smiley...
 
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Posted: #4
Key, is it worth it to lay on the RL for Tigers? That juice is too high
 
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Posted: #6
Themoneyteam.. I'd say no and just parlay Cubs ml with tigers ml a little smaller. Goal is to go 2/2 anyway
 
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Hey key wanted to get your thoughts on the Royals tonight. Kennedy been throwing very well of late and wright could be rusty. A little concerned about Kennedy pitching at Fenway being a fly ball pitcher but the price is very tempting. Regardless, Bol on your plays sir. If you get the chance would love to get your take. Thank you
Don’t let the last play affect the next play
 
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Posted: #9
GL Key

You like the RL in the Tigers game or parlay with the Cubs? If the Tigers lose with that much juice or the cubs, you'll lose pretty much the same as if you put less money on a parlay.

Thanks
 
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Quote Originally Posted by themomenyteam:

Key, is it worth it to lay on the RL for Tigers? That juice is too high
You might consider the 5 inning rrun line, since the Tigers will definitely bat in the bottom of the 5th, but I NEVER, repeat NEVER, lay the 9 inning run line on a home team.

1. Too many folks forget (or try to) that when you use the run line to lower the juice, you also increase the risk, which is why the run line has lower juice.

2. If the Tigers lead by 1 at the end of the 8th, I will be hoping for 3 quick outs, but you will be praying, begging, pleading(take your pick) that the Angels SCORE, to keep the game going.

3. If they do and you consider yourself lucky, you still have to win by 2 and your ONLY hope will be that whatever the Angels scored in the top of the 9th the Tigers can overcome by 2 with a walk off home run, since any method of winning by 1 (which they will play to do) does you no good. 

BOL 
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Quote Originally Posted by KC_4_LIFE:

Hey key wanted to get your thoughts on the Royals tonight. Kennedy been throwing very well of late and wright could be rusty. A little concerned about Kennedy pitching at Fenway being a fly ball pitcher but the price is very tempting. Regardless, Bol on your plays sir. If you get the chance would love to get your take. Thank you
I have the BoSox as the eventual winner, but if you like K.C, I will grant you the line is too high (I made it -133 max), making the Royals the "value" side of the play. BOL 
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Quote Originally Posted by KeyElement:

You might consider the 5 inning rrun line, since the Tigers will definitely bat in the bottom of the 5th, but I NEVER, repeat NEVER, lay the 9 inning run line on a home team.

1. Too many folks forget (or try to) that when you use the run line to lower the juice, you also increase the risk, which is why the run line has lower juice.

2. If the Tigers lead by 1 at the end of the 8th, I will be hoping for 3 quick outs, but you will be praying, begging, pleading(take your pick) that the Angels SCORE, to keep the game going.

3. If they do and you consider yourself lucky, you still have to win by 2 and your ONLY hope will be that whatever the Angels scored in the top of the 9th the Tigers can overcome by 2 with a walk off home run, since any method of winning by 1 (which they will play to do) does you no good. 

BOL 

thanks for the info, it helps a lot
 
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Posted: #13
Quote Originally Posted by themomenyteam:


thanks for the info, it helps a lot
Glad you appreciate it. I have posted the same at least a hundred times on Covers but it largely gets ignored, and almost no one comes back to say thanx.


Now and then even a BLIND squirrel can find an acorn
 
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On the Pirates with you today
 
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I agree  but in the Nats game last night...Jiminez versus Mad  Max..never thought Ubaldo  would pitch like he did...
 
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Quote Originally Posted by Dubabud:

GL Key

You like the RL in the Tigers game or parlay with the Cubs? If the Tigers lose with that much juice or the cubs, you'll lose pretty much the same as if you put less money on a parlay.

Thanks
A parlay, even a two teamer, is much more difficult than two straight bets. Having to win both is much more difficult than one and/or the other. No thanx.
Now and then even a BLIND squirrel can find an acorn
 
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Quote Originally Posted by bigred84:

I agree  but in the Nats game last night...Jiminez versus Mad  Max..never thought Ubaldo  would pitch like he did...
Proves the old axiom "now and then even a BLIND squirrel can find an acorn" and that pretty much sums up my feelings about Ubaldo.
Now and then even a BLIND squirrel can find an acorn
 
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Posted: #19
Like this card alot today, Key. Played the Bucs. Wanted to play the Stros too but didn't have the stones to do it. My local had the line pegged at 145 all along and I was hoping to get them around 15 cents cheaper. I strongly considered the Cubs. I'm not sure how Bud Norris even still pitches in the majors. Ultimately decided to wait till I can get more data on Montgomery as a starter with his new club. Good luck tonight and thanks for what you have done over the years. I've been quietly stacked coins using your opinions on games. Regardless of whether I played, passed, or had the other side, the things you say have merit and I make sure to take them into consideration. So thanks, and may you continue to be successful. 
 
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Posted: #20
Good luck Key!
 
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Quote Originally Posted by 2fade:

Like this card alot today, Key. Played the Bucs. Wanted to play the Stros too but didn't have the stones to do it. My local had the line pegged at 145 all along and I was hoping to get them around 15 cents cheaper. I strongly considered the Cubs. I'm not sure how Bud Norris even still pitches in the majors. Ultimately decided to wait till I can get more data on Montgomery as a starter with his new club. Good luck tonight and thanks for what you have done over the years. I've been quietly stacked coins using your opinions on games. Regardless of whether I played, passed, or had the other side, the things you say have merit and I make sure to take them into consideration. So thanks, and may you continue to be successful. 
Only 251 posts in 4 years? That is some serious lurking. Thanx


Now and then even a BLIND squirrel can find an acorn
 
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Posted: #22
BOL key and thanks as always for the insight
 
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Posted: #23
Any thoughts on the over between the Cards and the A's?

My concern is that Weaver looked good in AAA but has struggled so far. The Cards should hit Detwiler but not sure if the A's hit Weaver, and he doesn't appear to be worth laying 200 until he's actually had good major league start. Thoughts?
 
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Quote Originally Posted by NaciremaDream:

Any thoughts on the over between the Cards and the A's?

My concern is that Weaver looked good in AAA but has struggled so far. The Cards should hit Detwiler but not sure if the A's hit Weaver, and he doesn't appear to be worth laying 200 until he's actually had good major league start. Thoughts?
No way I lay either side in that game, and I am not crazy about the total either, just not enough data for an accurate projection. Gun to my head I guess I would play over, but that is a darn good game to pass on, and I am. BOL 
Now and then even a BLIND squirrel can find an acorn
 
 
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Posted: #25
Been following for a long time key. I was watching Seattle game the other night, and the commentator mentioned how Seattle struggled badly at cellular field, and also struggled badly against left handed pitching. They are facing one of the best lefty's tonight. Do you like either side?

Thanks for the write ups and good luck
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