Play Against
Road favorites with a money line of -125 to -175 (ATLANTA)
with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 3.70 to 4.20 on the season (NL) against opponent with a starting pitcher whose lasts less than 5 innings per start
55-42 since 1997.
56.7% (34.1 units)
Play Against
All underdogs with a money line of +125 to +175 (NY YANKEES)
starting a over rested pitcher who is working on 7 or more days rest, after a game where the bullpen threw 7 or more innings
34-6 over the last 5 seasons.
85.0% (24.5 units)
Play On
Home teams (SAN FRANCISCO)
with a slugging percentage of .370 or worse over their last 15 games against opponent with a slugging percentage of .480 or better over their last 10 games
102-85 over the last 5 seasons.
54.5% (49.7 units)
San Diego is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games when playing on the road against Arizona
San Diego is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games when playing on the road against Arizona
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Arizona's last 5 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 11 of Arizona's last 12 games A.Rome
Padres vs. Diamondbacks MLB BETTING PREDICTION
Snell is 8-8 with a 2.61 ERA and is 4-1 with a 0.84 ERA in eight appearances – seven starts – against the Diamondbacks in his career. He has 63 strikeouts and 10 walks in 42 2/3 innings against Arizona, although he’s facing the Diamondbacks for the first time this season. As for Nelson, he’s 6-6 with a 5.16 ERA on the season and is 1-1 with a 4.43 ERA in four starts against the Padres in his career. Despite being expensive, I like San Diego tonight on the moneyline.
MLB BETTING PREDICTION: SAN DIEGO PADRES -162
Baltimore is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games
Baltimore is 13-3 ATS in its last 16 games on the road
Seattle is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
Seattle is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games by A.Rome
Orioles vs. Mariners MLB BETTING PREDICTION
Gibson pitched seven innings of three-run ball and struck out nine in the Orioles’ 7-3 victory over the Mets on Saturday. This makes four straight quality starts for Gibson. His 4.50 ERA for the season isn’t overly impressive, but he’s pitched at least six innings in 15 of his 24 starts and the Orioles offense has helped him get to 11 wins. Castillo, meanwhile, allowed seven runs over six innings with six strikeouts on Friday in a no-decision against the Angels. The 30-year-old right-hander holds a 3.21 ERA, 1.05 WHIP, and a 155/34 K/BB across 137 1/3 innings. The Mariners are red-hot, but I’m going to take a flier on the Orioles tonight as the underdog and bank on Castillo’s struggles continuing for at least one more start.
MLB BETTING PREDICTION: BALTIMORE ORIOLES +120
Rockies vs. Dodgers MLB Betting Trends
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Colorado's last 7 games when playing on the road against LA Dodgers
Colorado is 12-2 ATS in its last 14 games on the road
LA Dodgers is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of LA Dodgers' last 7 games when playing at home against Colorado by A.Rome
Rockies vs. Dodgers MLB BETTING PREDICTION
Gomber blanked his old team for six innings as the Rockies edged the Cardinals 1-0 on Sunday. He’s been excellent recently, going 5-3 with a 3.19 ERA in his last 10 starts. Lynn, meanwhile, was terrific in Sunday night’s victory over the Padres, striking out six batters over six innings of one-run baseball. He has now emerged victorious in each of his first two starts with the Dodgers. Both of these pitchers have looked rejuvenated recently and thus, I like the under tonight in L.A.
MLB BETTING PREDICTION: ROCKIES/DODGERS UNDER 9
The Rays are 2-3 in their last 5 games SU.
The totals have gone OVER in 34 of Rays' 58 last games at home, 58% of the time.
Guardians are 2-3 in their last 5 games against the spread
Cleveland is also 29-28 in road games against the spread
The totals have gone OVER in 1 of Guardians' last 5 games. A.Rome
MLB BETTING PREDICTION: Guardians/Rays UNDER 8.5
The Guardians cannot score. They average 3.95 runs a game and are 12th in the AL in total runs. On top of that averaging 1.8 runs over the last five games. In the other dugout the Rays have averaged 2.7 runs in their last three losses and 7.3 run average in their last three wins. Tampa is the superior team. Moneyline success, especially at home, could indicate a high scoring game. Public sentiment creates confidence that the Rays will win. But with the combined ERA of both starting pitchers being 5.5 the best value is the under.
Milwaukee is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Chi White Sox
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Chi White Sox's last 6 games at home by A.Rome
Chi White Sox is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
Brewers vs. White Sox MLB BETTING PREDICTION
Burnes is 9-6 with a 3.42 ERA after allowing two runs and two hits in six innings against the Pirates on Saturday in a no-decision. He’s 1-0 with a 2.79 ERA in two appearances against the White Sox, which includes on start. Kopech, meanwhile, is 5-10 with a 4.43 ERA after winning at Cleveland on Saturday behind 5 1/3 innings of two-run, three-hit ball. He has one previous career appearance against the Brewers, but it came in July of 2021 and it was only an inning. I don’t think the White Sox touch Burnes and even though Milwaukee ramped up the offense against the Rockies in its previous series, the Brewers’ lineup has been inconsistent all season. Give me the under.
MLB BETTING PREDICTION: BREWERS/WHITE SOX UNDER 8.5
Cardinals vs. Royals MLB Betting Trends
St. Louis is 13-3 ATS in its last 16 games when playing on the road against Kansas City
St. Louis is 13-3 SU in its last 16 games when playing on the road against Kansas City
Kansas City is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games at home
Kansas City is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home by A.Rome
Cardinals vs. Royals MLB BETTING PREDICTION
Wainwright has been six shades of awful this season. After he allowed seven runs over three innings last Friday in a loss to the Rockies, his ERA is now up to 7.81 on the season and his WHIP has climbed to 1.98. His 39-to-26 strikeout-to-walk ratio across 65 2/3 innings is also pathetic and the only reason why he’s still in the rotation is because the Cardinals are trying to get him win No. 199 and win No. 200 before he retires. Give me the over tonight in Kansas City.
MLB BETTING PREDICTION: CARDINALS/ROYALS OVER 10.5
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of LA Angels' last 6 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 5 of LA Angels' last 6 games when playing Houston
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Houston's last 6 games when playing LA Angels
Houston is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against LA Angels by A.Rome
Angels vs. Astros MLB BETTING PREDICTION
Detmers allowed seven runs over four innings on Friday in a no-decision against the Mariners. He would be done after four innings, ending his day with a 4.78 ERA, 1.35 WHIP, and a 131/41 K/BB ratio across 105 1/3 innings. Making his first start in his return to the Astros, Verlander took a tough loss to the Yankees after allowing two runs in seven innings on Saturday. It was Verlander’s eighth straight start in which he’s allowed three runs or fewer. He dropped to 6-6 with a 3.11 ERA. I like the under tonight in Houston.
MLB BETTING PREDICTION: ANGELS/ASTROS UNDER 8.5
Based on this matchup's moneyline, the Blue Jays' implied win probability is 60.8%. The Blue Jays are 46-37 in games they were listed as the moneyline favorite (winning 55.4% of those games). Chicago has come away with 25 wins in the 58 contests it has been listed as the underdogs in this season. Toronto has entered 36 games this season favored by -155 or more and is 20-16 in those contests. Dunkel's Pick: Toronto (-1.5).
San Diego (55-60) @ Arizona (57-58)
— Snell is 2-0, 2.81 in his last three starts.
— San Diego is 7-3 in his last ten starts.
— under 11-5-1 last 17 starts
— allowed run in first inning: 6-23
— record in first 5 innings: 12-11
— He is 4-1, 0.84 in seven starts vs Arizona.
— Padres are 1-5 in their last six games.
— San Diego is 0-10 in extra innings.
— San Diego is 25-32 on road.
— over 5-3 last eight games
— scored run in first inning: 38-115
— record in first 5 innings: 53-49-13
— bullpen IP last 3 days: 5-2-x
— Nelson is 0-1, 7.47 in his last three starts.
— Arizona is 0-4 in his last four home starts.
— under 5-2-1 last eight
— allowed run in first inning: 6-23
— record in first 5 innings: 9-11-3
— He is 0-0, 7.20 in two starts vs San Diego TY.
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