Hey guys,
I have looked and been talking to d41reds and I am combining the stats I have with the theory d41reds is using to come up with 2 or 3 really good plays tonight.
Will post as we get closer to game time.
I will give you guys a couple of examples of what we are looking at tonight.
Pittsburgh and Houston both opened at -115 favorites. Which is what d41reds is looking for when two teams open with the same lines. Now i am looking at the situation both are in and using my stats with d41reds theory put into it.
So both opened with the same line and both are on the road and both as of right now have public money backing them on the moneyline at over 70%.
The Pittsburgh line has moved from -115 to -116 as of right now with the site I use. The Houston line has moved from -115 to -128.
So as of right now both are in the same situation. Teams in these spots are road favorites with public backing them and line moving the same direction are 3-0.
BUT I want to watch that Pittsburgh line because it hasn't moved much and if it reverses and starts moving towards Washington then you have a scenario in that situation where road teams are 1-5 on the moneyline.
So we would want to incorporate d41reds theory in with it and we would play Washington as the underdog having a team 5-1 mark in that spot and then if they win you would have a really strong play on Houston with teams being 3-0 in that spot and having d41reds theory combined with it.
So that is something to watch.
Another thing I am watching, there are 4 games that opened with home teams favored -160. Toronto, Cleveland, Colorado and the LA Dodgers. All 4 lines as of right now have moved the opposite direction. When this happens underdogs in this spot are 6-2 on the moneyline and 8-0 on the runline.
BUT if the home team opens as a -160 favorite and the line moves the same direction with the home favorite those home teams are 1-0 with no public on them but 8-1 with public on them for a total of 9-1 on the moneyline. They are 7-3 on the runline.
Just a couple of things to watch for and we can incorporate d41reds theory in to the -160 lines as well. We will just have to watch those.
Want to come up with 2 or 3 really strong plays for tonight using both and do it every night. Lets win some more money tonight guys
Hot Forum Topics
