The moneyline set for this matchup implies the Pirates have a 48.5% chance of coming away with a victory in the contest. This season, Pittsburgh has been victorious 24 times in 57 chances when named as an underdog of at least +106 or worse on the moneyline. The Pirates are 6-2 SU in their last 8 games when playing on the road against Texas. The Rangers are 1-5 SU in their last 6 games at home. Dunkel's Pick: Pittsburgh (+105).
Typically, I'd give the Rays a clear bullpen edge (2nd vs. 14th in both K-BB% and xFIP in the second half), but I only give them a slight advantage (about 0.15 runs on a season-long ERA) for Monday's matchup.
Tampa Bay used seven arms on Sunday — including Fairbanks — who was subsequently placed on the IL – as part of an extended bullpen game. They used five pitchers on Saturday and four on Friday, while Oakland had a rare off-day on Friday and only used four pitchers each of the past two days.
Taj Bradley (3.49 ERA, 3.84 xERA, 20.1% K-BB%) provides a clear starting pitching advantage over Joe Boyle (7.39 ERA, 4.88 xERA, 5.9% K-BB%).
Pitching models like the stuff for both starters (115 Stuff+ for Bradley, 111 for Boyle), but both righties struggle with command (97 Location+ for Bradley, 89 for Boyle). Bradley's botERA (4.59; 4.34 career) is much closer to Boyle's (5.14) than the rest of their indicators.
Bradley went on a wicked run in June and July (combined 2.56 ERA), but became overvalued in the betting market. He's 0-3 in his past three starts while allowing 21 hits, 15 runs, four homers, and six walks against 15 strikeouts over 14 innings pitched. Additionally, his botERA is 5.12 across those three outings.
Boyle (career 14.6% walk rate) has awful command and a bottomless floor in any start. Boyle has walked at least three hitters in seven of eight outings this season. Still, I think the market has Boyle adequately measured as a replacement-level starter — it's just been too high on Bradley for about a month.
Oakland has the better offense against righties both on the season (15th vs. 22nd in wRC+) and since the All-Star Break (9th vs. 19th).
Oakland should have a chance to pull the upset if Boyle doesn't dig too deep of a hole early. OAK +116 O5 BETTER
BY ZERILLO
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