Froggy's Ultimate Quarter System

I'm back...

and we're taking down the house this time.

This is the near-final rendition of my martingale system (I say "near-final" because if I find additional risk-averse angles to exploit, I'll be hard-pressed to include it into the  current model). Do not think that all martingales are the same because they are not. This is not an endless legged martingale where you need to take out a second mortgage on your home for the final leg. Read on if you're still interested. If you cringe at the mere thought of doubling your wager, I'm sorry to say this isn't the right system for you. Move on.

So, here is the basis of the model. This is a NBA quarter wager model. This means that this is a 4-legged martingale because there are 4 quarters in the NBA. When successful, the model wins 1-unit per match-up, and if/when we lose all 4 legs of the martingale, we will have lost approximately 20 units. Risk according to your bankroll and your books max allowed wager amount. Divide your max loss by 20 to calculate your unit size.

The system looks back at the last 7 matches for each team and calculates the weighted average quarters won and the percentage of at least 1 quarter being won. It also considers fatigue by taking into account how many games the team has played in the last 4 days, and whether they're playing a back-to-back match up. Power rankings have been added to the model to filter out unfavorable setups.

Important

The way to calculate is your wager is by using this formula:

IMPORTANT: Select 'To Win'. (NOT 'To Risk')

Formula: <wagers placed on the match so far> + <1 unit>

Using the above formula, the following is the wager schedule:

First quarter (pre-match wager): <wagers placed on the match so far> + <1 unit> => 0 wagered so far + 1 unit = 1 unit wager

If odds were -110 or 1.90 then your wager would have cost you 1.1 units

Second quarter: <wagers placed on the match so far> + <1 unit> => 1.1 units wagered so far (1Q wagers including juice) + 1 unit = 2.1 unit wager

If odds were -110 or 1.90 then your wager would have cost you 2.31 units

Third quarter: <wagers placed on the match so far> + <1 unit> => 3.41 units wagered so far (1Q + 2Q wagers including juice) + 1 unit = 4.41 unit wager

If odds were -110 or 1.90 then your wager would have cost you 4.851 units

Fourth quarter: <wagers placed on the match so far> + <1 unit> => 7.161 units wagered so far (1Q + 2Q + 3Q wagers including juice) + 1 unit = 8.161 unit wager

If odds were -110 or 1.90 then your wager would have cost you 8.9771 units

In the above example, total units in a loss scenario is 17.2381, but when I account for odds of -120 for live wagers (which is more common), the total loss is approximately 20 units. Read this thoroughly, understand how this works and plan how you will manage your wagers before attempting this method.

The best time to place a live wager is right before the quarter ends. The odds are better- at least for my book, it is. So, if you are certain that your current wager is dead, go ahead and place the next wager prematurely to take advantage of the better odds (lower risk).

Let's look at some numbers.

I employed a similar model last season, and my focus was on returns vs. risk-aversion. Although I was profitable, for you guys who started to tail later in the season, some of you guys were burned. The reason is that the game count was higher and losses were inevitable. So while I was able to accumulate a good bankroll, a 2-game losing streak could wipe 40 units off your bankroll. That's a very big horse-pill...

This time around, I focused purely on risk-aversion. I built the system to provide the best overall results while avoiding medium to high risk match-ups.

With this change, beginning from the 2019-2020 up until the current season, the record would have stood at 150-2 and (+110 units). Each season starting from 2015 would have yielded an average of +72 units per season. The current season has a record of 21-0 so far. This means there's plenty of games left to exploit for the remainder of the season.

Impressive? Well, not really. There were over 2700 match-ups, and we're involved in only 152 matches. That's only 5.6%.

Some key risk-metrics:

1. The model does not wager on any odds worse than -1 spread for 1Q. This means that if the odds for the pick is -1.5 or worse, then it's a hard pass.

2. We only wager up to the final-four in a conference. The games get pretty intense and there are higher chances for a clean sweep during the final four games so we avoid these games.

3. Power rankings are updated on a day to day basis.

4. Player injuries and covid protocols are not accounted for in this model. I will not be factoring them in. It hasn't affected my results in the past, and I don't believe it will affect this model in the future.

5. The first 7 games of a season are skipped for data gathering purposes.

That's it. Let the fun times begin! BOL to all that chooses to tail! 

First two picks for the system.

New Orleans Pelicans +2

Miami Heat -0.5

FYI on this season's picks if I had started earlier in the season.

11/07/21 - Magic (+4) - winning quarter - 1st

11/12/21 - Thunder (+1) - winning quarter - 3rd

11/17/21 - Trail Blazers (-1) - winning quarter - 3rd

11/19/21 - Hornets (+0.5) - winning quarter - 1st

11/27/21 - Heat (-0.5) - winning quarter - 1st

11/28/21 - Clippers (+0.5) - winning quarter - 1st

11/30/21 - Suns (-1) - winning quarter - 2nd

12/03/21 - Rockets (-1) - winning quarter - 1st

12/04/21 - Nets (-1) - winning quarter - 1st

12/04/21 - Grizzlies (-0.5) - winning quarter - 1st

12/10/21 - Hornets (+0.5) - winning quarter - 2nd

12/10/21 - Suns (-1) - winning quarter - 2nd

12/13/21 - Grizzlies (+0.5) - winning quarter - 1st

12/15/21 - Grizzlies (-0.5) - winning quarter - 1st

12/17/21 - Hornets (+0.5) - winning quarter - 3rd

12/29/21 - Mavericks (pk) - winning quarter - 1st

12/31/21 - Mavericks (-0.5) - winning quarter - 2nd

01/01/22 - Warriors (+2) - winning quarter - 1st

01/12/22 - Lakers (-1) - winning quarter - 1st

01/13/22 - Grizzlies (-1) - winning quarter - 3rd

01/15/22 - Pelicans (+2) - TBD

01/15/22 - Heat (-0.5) - TBD

Miami complete. Waiting on Pelicans 3Q

Wondered where you went ha! No Twitter ?

2-0 

@Skinny-Duggins

 R&D takes time 

Got two live ones today.

New York Knicks -0.5

Miami Heat -1

Good luck, everyone.

FYI I'm posting plays and will be online during some of the matchups on this discord server: BettingPros Chat

Sorry, new here. So you bet NYK in the 1st q, if you win then you are done. If not then bet them again in the 2nd q (no matter the line) & win then done. If not 3rd q etc. ?

@Tinmann

correct. The wager amounts are important. I'll post a link to a spreadsheet to help with this.

Edit: Wagering Calculator for Quarter Method

Only change the highlighted fields to match your unit size and odds for each wager.

Onto the 2Q for Knicks. Was able to get -1.5 spread for -126 odds.

triple up 3rd quarter. 

3Q getting -2.5 (-126)

@Froggy80

 I got -2.5 for the 2nd & 3rd.

Here goes nothing

Nail-biter. Congrats to all that tailed.

3-0 

@Froggy80

 Nail bitter, but good stuff! Figures the one I tail is the 1st time this yr for all 4 qts. Onto Miami. Thanks!

I bailed after the 2nd qtr didn't come thru. My unit size was too large for this type of play.

Will do the Mia qtrs with appropriate unit size 

@tboon

Yea, be very careful about your sizing. You have to be comfortable with a total loss scenario otherwise you'll be very upset when it happens. I want everyone to succeed, but as you can see, if you're not up 20 units or more when the loss happens, it can be very discouraging. The probability of continued success is high, but the system is not bulletproof by any means.

Miami 2Q -1.5 @ -106