Froggy's Ultimate Quarter System

Congrats to everyone who tailed.

4-0 

Much easier on Miami. Thanks again. Will look forward to your next post 

good job

We have Minnesota Timberwolves either pk or -0.5 for tomorrow.

I was able to add another filter to the system. I'm not sure why it's only now that I've considered this addition, but as always, it's better late then never. Outside of the Back-to-Back and 3 games in 4 nights combination filter, I added the vanilla Back-to-Back filter. Out of the 153 games that the system had picked without the new filter, I lost a total of 3 games... however, one of those games was a 20-unit loss match-up. The new record would have stood at 149-1 (wow!) ... I know this is all theoretical, but a less than 1% loss is a massive improvement.

The single loss in the system was a game between Grizzlies (Away) vs. Hornets (Home) on Jan 1st, 2021. The system picked Hornets, but they got swept. I have no idea how to filter out just this one loss. If you guys know something about this matchup that I could identify and incorporate into the system, I'd love to hear about it. If we can somehow filter out this matchup and have a 100% system win rate, this system would be the elusive holy grail of betting systems.

As I mentioned last night, we have Timberwolves on the ticket tonight. Later today, I'll plug in tomorrow's 13 match-ups and provide some expectations. Hopefully, there's a few games we can get involved in. Have a great day, folks. BOL!

@Froggy80

 jan1st 2021 was the 5th game (season started late december) : you said skip the first 7 games...

@MTL-EXPOS

Holy shit! You're right. I lost a few more games, but the record now stands at 137-0. I appreciate you @MTL-EXPOS. This was an obvious oversight!!

.

@Froggy80

 my pleasure!

@Froggy80

 It would be interesting to have the result of those 137 wins by quarters: how many first quarters wins, etc.

@MTL-EXPOS

 Sure! I'll put it together for you.

@MTL-EXPOS

Quarter Method Pick History

Winning Quarter:

1Q - 49.6%

2Q - 29.9%

3Q - 12.4%

4Q - 8.0%

@Froggy80

 Thanks a lot for the detail: so the first quarter is the only one losing money at 68-69  record for roughly -8 units.

GL with the wolves!  

@MTL-EXPOS

Losing money? Not sure I follow.

@Froggy80

 for the first quarter: 68 wins 69 losses on the 137 games.  if your unit is $100, you win $6800 , and lose (69 x 110)= -7590 for a net profit of : -790 on the first quarter bets.

my point is : if history refeat itself, the better strategy in to wait & bet 2 units after the first quarter.

@MTL-EXPOS

I don't think you understand how this system works. It's a martingale system. If 1Q loses, you wager double on the 2Q. If 2Q loses, then your wager is the total wagered for 1Q + 2Q and add 1 unit. If 3Q loses, then your wager is total wagered for 1Q + 2Q + 3Q and add 1 unit. If you win any of the quarters, you will be left with a 1 unit win. If you lose all 4 wagers, you would have lost approximately 20 units. This system, as you helped me find my mistake has a historical record of 137-0 (+137 units). There was no loss. I hope this helps you understand.

It doesn't get any easier than that. Extremely easy cover in the 1st quarter. Not even a sweat. I smell a sweep coming against these knickerbockers tonight.

5-0 

Congrats to all that tailed.

Excellent post! Thanks for sharing the system plays!!!

NICE POST BRO.. GREAT FOLLOW 

On DraftKings,,, not available 2nd 3rd quarter bets or 4th quarter bets just 1st and half plays. FYI.. 

@JPW444

 That sucks.

I'll have to double check the odds tomorrow when they're officially published, but looks like we only have 1 play tomorrow... and that's Dallas Mavericks as long as 1Q odds are -1.0

Good night everyone. Be safe.

Two Plays for tonight:

Boston Celtics (-1)

Dallas Mavericks (-1)

 BOL for all who tail! 

If you guys recall, my first post writeup, I stated this, "This is the near-final rendition of my martingale system (I say "near-final" because if I find additional risk-averse angles to exploit, I'll be hard-pressed to include it into the  current model)"

The system usually doesn't wager on an away team unless there's a clear and distinct fatigue advantage against the home team. However, this does end up excluding a bunch of otherwise viable matchups. So, instead what I decided to do is to this:

Original Filter:

Only allow for an Away team pick if Home team qualifies for fatigue filter

New Filter:

Allow for an away team pick if Home team qualifies for fatigue filter

-- OR --

Away team DOES NOT have a fatigue disadvantage AND Away team has a power ranking disparity advantage of 8 places or more

How does this alter the results?

We unfortunately do introduce a single loss to the results. However, we also introduce 59 additional wins. The record would stand now at 197-1 (+177 units). This doesn't change our picks for tonight, but obviously helps us with more picks in the future.

Let me know what you guys think.