MLB Picks 2023

Tracking thread

Mlb wants more scoring so we will see if all these new rules achieve their desired result....

Opening day leans

Col/sd over 7.5 @1.91...these 2 went 5-4 to this line in SD last year....col score more at home..Snell can have control issues...the one game between these 2 pitchers ended 4-2

Ari/lad over 7.0 @1.83...5-1-3 to this line last season at dodger stadium....don't like that both matchups with these pitchers went under last year

Bal/bos over 9.0 @1.87...both teams can score....hitters ballpark....need to see weather still cold in the northeast ...5-5 to this line last year at fenway...

Atl/wsh over 8.0 @1.95...atl one of better O in league and olson/albies hot from ST...but fried also has insane ST numbers, only gave up 6 hits...need to see weather...8-1-1 to this line last season in Washington .....Corbin not great but maybe he having a good ST? haven't been following ST

Will be looking for potential market deficiencies....there are a couple potential outcomes from these rules changes which could be favorable to the bettor if properly identified...and potential for over-reaction in multiple different phases of the market....

Oddsmakers are razor-sharp so this isn't very likely except on a couple games here and there....as complete market deficiency is highly unlikely with how skilled they are/their algorithms are.....

The league wants offense and is trying to artificially create it....im not sure it will be wise to fight this attempt...unless there is an over-reaction....

ST is so extremely different from the reg.season so I can't put a ton of weight into the team stats coming out....individually u can draw from players stats a little better (whos hot/cold)

Kind of interested to just monitor for the first while and see if the rules changes create the offense/game speed the league wants

GL this year buddy. 

@Fuse

 Fuser doubt there will be very many plays but thanks brudda

Couple other leans to track....usually wait 3-5 games for batters to show if they hot/cold and prefer not go bet them with aces on the mound

Fried over 5.5 K 2.10...wanted 4.5

Webb over 5.5 K 2.10...wanted 4.5

Greene over 7.5 K 1.95

Scherzer over 5.5 K 1.60...prefer 6.5 + money 

Worried all these guys on pitch limits....Scherzer  should be least risky where he a vet...but ya never know....lot of guys went between 70-90 pitches last year on opening day 

Leans 7-1....maybe shoulda made a play...6-2 since I wanted scherzer over 6.5 n he got 6 

Thanks for the analysis- will be watching yu during early season

@ethanallen1991

 Baseball my worst sport...got lucky last night though

Leans

May over 5.5 K @1.75

Ray over 5.5 K @1.95

1 more tracker

Col/sd over 8.0 @1.96

Leans 0-3 last night 

Leans

Tor/stl over 7.5 @1.85

Phi/tex over 7.5 @1.85

Col/sd over 8.0 @1.87

Pit/cin over 8.5 @1.91

Like phi/tex most of the 4

Leans went 2-2

Leans

Tor/stl over 8.0 @1.85

Col/sd over 8.0 @1.91

Phi/tex over 9.0 @2.01

Waiting on props

Leans 9-6 overall so far

Leans

Franco over 1.5 tb @2.10

Devers over 1.5 tb @2.05

Olson over 1.5 tb @2.20

Leans 3-3

12-9 overall

Leans 

Rays -1.5 @1.97

Bal/tex over 8.5 @1.97

Waiting on 4-5 props

1 locked in

Rays -1.5 @1.94  0.5 to win 0.47

Big pitching advantage for rays. Fresh pen and the better starter

Pretty decent advantage with the bats for the rays as well

Nats didn't muster many hits in the series vs atl...now the face a tougher pitching team 

Like rays to run it to a 4 game winning steak 

I got rays by 2+ 60% of the time in this specific matchup....if rays bullpen was taxed that would drop... Lot of value @1.94

The past 2 days 30 games have been played.  4 of them were decided by 1 run (13.3%)

Like the rays by 2+....maybe 4-1 or 5-2 type game..... Could be higher scoring with the wind blowing out

GL all

1 locked in

Franco over 1.5 tb @2.05  0.5 to win 0.525

Over this in 3 straight with 5, 5 and 3. Also multi hit games in all 3. Riding the hot hand

One of the better contact hitters in the league. Has 7 hits, 2 walks and 1 K so far in 13 ABs

Like that he a switch-hitter and that he can also leg out infield hits 

His road split quite a bit better than his home split

Waited for lineup...like him better in the 2 hole...but he had his best game of the 3 so far when he batted 4th...guessing he had guys on base so they couldn't pitch around him...should get at least 4 ABs in the 2 hole

Nats pitcher didn't have great ST numbers and is pretty average starter....Franco better vs lower velo pitchers...williams 4 seamer avg 91.3 which is nothing crazy

Wind was projected to be blowing out...could help turn a flyball  into a HR

Only thing I don't like is he hasn't seen williams but he is an elite bat so ill take chance....and first game of series always harder to predict

Like him in the 1-4 range

GL all

Best of luck Dubz!

Where you from Dubz?

@mrusso

 Cheers buddy

I'm up north of ya, here in my igloo in Canada  

Congrats on the Rays, we got that, again

@mrusso

  franco almost came up again in the 9th too

1-1 -0.03 units

Of course Swanson, Devers, acuna and arraez all go over....but they were all -125 which I don't really like for total bases

Like a spot or 2 tomorro but might see better plays in nhl/nba

Leans/bets overall 14-10

Bets 1-1

Leans

Min ml @2.17

Cle -1.5 @1.93

Rays -1.5 @1.91

Pit/bos over 9.0 @1.91

Atl/stl over 9.0 @1.83

Min in tough vs Alcantara

Cle has ace on mound

Rays have opener going but are the superior team

expecting some offense with the 2 overs....no elite pitchers going

Waiting on 5-7 props depending on lines

leans

devers over 1.5 tb @1.85

arraez over 1.5 @2.00

j.ramirez over 1.5 tb @2.20

more leans

t.turner over 1.5 tb @1.85

franco over 1.5 tb @2.00

bieber over 6.5 k @2.00