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MLB picks using Monte Carlo simulation

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Prospect
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Posts: 344
Posted: #201
Also playing 
Rashad Evans +400 (0.5x)
Ben Rothwell +250 (0.25x)
Miguel Torres -120 (0.5x)
Efrain Escudero +155 (0.25x)
 
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Posted: #202
Adding Mavericks +8 (2x)
            Warriors +14 (2x)
 
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Posted: #203
Good luck
 
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Posted: #204

Quote Originally Posted by pramsey1843:

Phillies -142 (2x)
Diamondbacks 116 (1x)
Cardinals -125 (2x)
Nationals -160 (1x)
White Sox -108 (2x)
Dodgers -1.5 -120 (2x)
A's -1.5 170 (1x)

My new formula likes all of your picks except for Oakland and the DBacks. BOL

 
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Posted: #205
Summary of Today's card
Phillies -142 (2x)
Diamondbacks 116 (1x)
Cardinals -125 (2x)
Nationals -160 (1x)
White Sox -108 (2x)
Dodgers -1.5 -120 (2x)
A's -1.5 170 (1x)

Capitals 165 (1x)
Senators 156 (1x)
Sharks 171 (1x)
Blackhawks 122 (1x)

Tottenham -110 (1x)
Fulham -115 (1x)
Aston Villa 110 (1x)
Werder Bremen 220 (1x)
Real Madrid 375 (1x)

Rashad Evans +400 (0.5x)
Ben Rothwell +250 (0.25x)
Miguel Torres -120 (0.5x)
Efrain Escudero +155 (0.25x)

Mavericks +8 (2x)
 Warriors +14 (2x)
 
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Posts: 199
Posted: #206
why no record of how good the simulator is doing?
 
Prospect
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Posts: 344
Posted: #207
Baseball system is up 25.9 units for the years.  Other picks are posted by the request of a viewer and only for fun.  Hockey picks are on a strong run.  Soccer is profitable today.  The Nationals also went final for a +1 unit win.
 
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Posted: #208
Nice hit on Real Madrid...do you put the soccer games in the system, or are those your personal picks?
 
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Posted: #209
Anything but the baseball is just for fun.
 
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Posted: #210
3-4 -2.34 +23.5 overall
 
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Posted: #211
Thunder -1 (4x)
Kings -4 (2x)

Giants -121 (2x)
Cardinals -130 (2x)
Blue Jays -120 (2x)
Dodgers -133 (2x)
Yankees -130 (2x)
Diamondbacks -136 (2x)
Phillies 106 (4x)
 
Captain
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Posted: #212

 I think you left out a game on the schedule and only made 30 selections today.   

 
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Posted: #213
Sorry I designed a system that loves action because I love action.
 
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Posted: #214
Quote Originally Posted by pramsey1843:

Thunder -1 (4x)
Kings -4 (2x)

Giants -121 (2x)
Cardinals -130 (2x)
Blue Jays -120 (2x)
Dodgers -133 (2x)
Yankees -130 (2x)
Diamondbacks -136 (2x)
Phillies 106 (4x)

Adding
Kings +146 (1x)
 
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Posted: #215

Quote Originally Posted by pramsey1843:

Sorry I designed a system that loves action because I love action.

To each their own, but being disciplined and selective beats the hell out of getting crushed by the vigorish.

Action junkies regularly go broke and rarely win, but good luck with your system. 

 
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Posted: #216
My system is winning.

3-2 -0.66 units for the day
+22.84 units overall. 

Making more plays does not make you go broke any quicker.  It gets you to where you are going faster.  If my system is good, the more plays I make the more money I will make.  If I make ten bets a day and you make one bet a day.  We will both be where we are in 10,000 wagers.  If my system is good, I will be better off than you after 10,000 wagers.  I will just get there faster.  When you make any other investment people tell you to diversify.  Same holds true here.  If I make ten plays, risk is spread over all of the plays.  My system worked last year.  It has been back tested with 5 years of data.  We are up this year.  I am up 25.2 units in basketball, 31.8 units in hockey, 19.2 units in soccer, and down 7 units in tennis/golf/mma/boxing this year.  I have no system with those.  A little bit of educated guessing and entertainment.  I am touting a baseball system that is winning.  I am up $2284 in three weeks.  Not sure what the problem is.
 
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Posted: #217
I like the system ramsey.  Keep it up.
 
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Posted: #218
Quote Originally Posted by pramsey1843:

My system is winning.

3-2 -0.66 units for the day
+22.84 units overall. 

Making more plays does not make you go broke any quicker.  It gets you to where you are going faster.  If my system is good, the more plays I make the more money I will make.  If I make ten bets a day and you make one bet a day.  We will both be where we are in 10,000 wagers.  If my system is good, I will be better off than you after 10,000 wagers.  I will just get there faster.  When you make any other investment people tell you to diversify.  Same holds true here.  If I make ten plays, risk is spread over all of the plays.  My system worked last year.  It has been back tested with 5 years of data.  We are up this year.  I am up 25.2 units in basketball, 31.8 units in hockey, 19.2 units in soccer, and down 7 units in tennis/golf/mma/boxing this year.  I have no system with those.  A little bit of educated guessing and entertainment.  I am touting a baseball system that is winning.  I am up $2284 in three weeks.  Not sure what the problem is.

While your system definitely is doing well and I applaud you for your hard work, I am going to have to disagree a bit with your logic.  I am a low volume better myself (typically 10-12 plays a week in baseball).  Anyways, I have a finite amount of funds to bet, so regardless of how many plays I am making, the total amount invested will be no different.  The only difference will be the size of the bet.  So, if we both hit at the same percentage, we should get to where we want to go at the same time.  

With that said, I have no problem with what you are doing and applaud you for the fact that it works for you.  Just pointing out that low volume, high dollar plays can work just the same.
 
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Posted: #219
I agree if you change your unit to a bigger unit.  However, I never have a large percentage on one game.  You never know when Phil Humber will pitch a perfect game or Tim Lincecum will start the season with an era of 9 or the red sox bullpen will give up 10 runs in one inning.  The more action works as a risk mitigation strategy.
 
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Posted: #220
Early play
Yankees 125 (2x)
Rockies 103 (2x)
Blue Jays -101 (4x)
Cardinals -113 (4x)
A's 100 (1x)
Diamondbacks -115 (1x)

 
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Posted: #221
adding Giants -106 (2x)
 
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Posted: #222
Coyotes 128 (1x)
 
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Posted: #223
thanks for sharing your intel, I don't think that can be said enough for you guys on this site that are putting in the time and grey matter to develop systems that consistently work.
 
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Posted: #224
Yankees 125 (2x)
Rockies 103 (2x)
Blue Jays -101 (4x)
Cardinals -113 (4x)
A's 100 (1x)
Diamondbacks -115 (1x)
Giants -106 (2x)
Coyotes 128 (1x)
 
 
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Posted: #225
Chelsea +2 -140 (2x)
Chelsea u3 105 (2x)
Panthers 141 (1x)

Nationals -119 (5x)
Yankees 132 (2x)
Phillies -114 (1x)
Giants -103 (3x)
Rockies 102 (2x)
Blue Jays -113 (4x)
Mets 104 (1x)
Dodgers 106 (2x)

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