The Astros are a perfect 7-0 in their last seven games played on Sunday, are 4-0 in their last four games during the four games when playing the fourth game of a series and are 9-1 in their last 10 games versus a team with a winning record. Houston has also won four of its last five road games, is 10-3 in its last 13 road games versus a left-handed starter and is 38-17 in its last 55 games overall.
Hou +136/ A.Rome
The Dodgers are now just 1-6 in their last seven games in Atlanta, are 2-8 in their last 10 games versus a team with a winning record and is 2-5 in their last seven games when their opponent scores five runs or more in their previous game. On the other side, the Braves are 11-2 in their last 13 games versus a right-handed starter, are 11-2 in their last 13 home games and are 15-3 in their last 18 games following a win. Atl -102 /A.Rome
The under is now 6-1 in the last seven meetings between these two teams at Busch Stadium and has cashed in four of the last five meetings overall. The under is also 7-1 in the Cubs’ last eight road games versus an opponent with a winning record and is 5-1 in their last six games when facing an opponent with a winning record. On the other side, the under is 4-1-1 in the Cardinals’ last six games overall and is 4-1 in their last five games versus a right-handed starter. UN 8.5 /A.Rome
Play Against
Road teams when the money line is +125 to -125 (LA DODGERS)
top level team, winning 62% or more of their games on the season, playing on Sunday
39-19 over the last 5 seasons.
67.2% (19.4 units)
Play On
Any team (CHI WHITE SOX)
below average hitting team (AVG <=.265) against an average starting pitcher (ERA=4.70 to 5.70) -AL, ice cold hitting team - batting .175 or worse over their last 3 games
31-14 over the last 5 seasons.
68.9% (18.6 units)
Play Against
Road teams when the money line is +125 to -125 (SEATTLE)
poor offensive team - scoring <=4.4 runs/game on the season (AL) against opponent starting a over rested pitcher who is working on 7 or more days rest
55-25 over the last 5 seasons.
68.8% (28.1 units)
Yu Darvish has been completely dominant at Petco Park, and he’ll matchup on Sunday against a Phillies lineup that’s still not hitting right-handed starters very effectively.
Darvish has a 1.34 ERA at home this season and has been stellar across each of his starts in June, with a combined WHIP of just 0.74.
It’s been well covered that the Phillies’ lineup has been significantly more potent versus left-handed pitching. Altogether against righties this season, Philadelphia has hit to a wRC+ of just 97 with a WOBA of .311. They’ll offer a softer matchup for Darvish, who has shined of late.
Kyle Gibson’s xERA of 3.78 suggests he’s due to fare better soon, especially should his opponents’ batting average with RISP trend downwards from .354, which is the second highest mark in the league amongst qualified starters this season.
San Diego’s third-worst xSLG of .401 continues to suggest regression is coming, especially considering the current lineup shortages, such as Manny Machado. I believe part of the Padres’ success throughout June has come due to the far easier than average slate of opponent pitching staffs.
With each pitcher more likely to thrive Sunday than it may appear on the surface, playing the under on a 5 innings total of 4 at almost even money looks like a strong proposition to me.
I would back this down to -120. F5 UN 4 /B y N.Martin
These two pitchers have huge upside potential and both are already capitalizing on it.
While these are two top-tier offenses, these are also two top-end bullpens. In fact, the Dodgers rank first in MLB in reliever xFIP (3.51) and the Braves rank second (3.57).
The wind is projected to blow straight in on Sunday evening and although it’s not much, it’s enough to nudge me toward the under just a bit more.
I like the under at 8.5, as long as we’re laying no more than -110 juice. UN 8.5 Atl /By T.McGrath
The Astros bullpen seems to have bounced back from their meltdown in Thursday night’s series opener. However, this game seems like it’s going to come down to starting pitching and the Yankees have a clear edge in that department.
The under does have some appeal in this game, but so does the over. The Astros moneyline in plus money is tough to sell considering how they’ve performed against lefties on the road and the prospect of a rough Urquidy road start.
The Yankees’ runline is at +120 right now and that seems like a really good value considering it’s the 2022 Yankees. Although this match up is tough to call, the Yankees runline seems to have the best value and the numbers support the Yankees.
Pick: NYY RL +120 / By J.Posner
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