Burnes won the 2021 NL Cy Young, finishing 11-5 in just 167.0 IP, but he led the majors in ERA (2.43) and K/9 (12.6).
2021 vs. Cubs: 2-0 with a 1.35 ERA (20.0 IP, 3 ER), 9 H, 36 K and 3 BB in 3 starts.
vs. Cubs on the current roster: 2.87 FIP with .220 batting average (BA), .291 wOBA, .385 expected slugging percentage (xSLG), 39.4 K% and 92.9 mph exit velocity (EV) in 66 plate appearances (PA).
Hendricks is Chicago’s Opening Day starter for the third time. He was 14-7 last season in 181.0 IP, but with a career-worst ERA (4.77) and WHIP (1.35).
2021 vs. Brewers: 1-1 with a 6.14 ERA (22.0 IP, 15 ER), 28 H, 19 K and 5 BB in 4 starts.
vs. Brewers on the current roster: 3.23 FIP with a .242 BA, .291 wOBA, .369 xSLG, 23.3 K% and 85.7 mph EV in 253 PA.
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Burnes won the 2021 NL Cy Young, finishing 11-5 in just 167.0 IP, but he led the majors in ERA (2.43) and K/9 (12.6).
2021 vs. Cubs: 2-0 with a 1.35 ERA (20.0 IP, 3 ER), 9 H, 36 K and 3 BB in 3 starts.
vs. Cubs on the current roster: 2.87 FIP with .220 batting average (BA), .291 wOBA, .385 expected slugging percentage (xSLG), 39.4 K% and 92.9 mph exit velocity (EV) in 66 plate appearances (PA).
Hendricks is Chicago’s Opening Day starter for the third time. He was 14-7 last season in 181.0 IP, but with a career-worst ERA (4.77) and WHIP (1.35).
2021 vs. Brewers: 1-1 with a 6.14 ERA (22.0 IP, 15 ER), 28 H, 19 K and 5 BB in 4 starts.
vs. Brewers on the current roster: 3.23 FIP with a .242 BA, .291 wOBA, .369 xSLG, 23.3 K% and 85.7 mph EV in 253 PA.
BET the BREWERS (-175) for 1 unit because they beat the Cubs (+140) in 9 of their final 10 meetings last season and Chicago didn’t make any notable upgrades this offseason.
Furthermore, Burnes was dominant versus the Cubs in 2021 and the Brewers have won 7 consecutive games as road favorites with Burnes on the mound.
Also, Chicago was terrible against right-handed pitching last season, ranking 23rd in wRC+, 19th in wOBA and last in BB/K versus righties.
Lastly, even if Hendricks gives the Cubs a quality outing, Milwaukee’s lineup can certainly rally back against this awful Chicago bullpen. Cubs relievers were 28th in WAR, 22nd in xFIP and 25th in home runs allowed per 9 innings as a platoon after the All-Star break.
The BREWERS (-175) are expensive but are the right side because they have a decisive edge over the Cubs (+140).
Mill 7-2 / Lean UN 10.5 -125 /By G.Clark
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BET the BREWERS (-175) for 1 unit because they beat the Cubs (+140) in 9 of their final 10 meetings last season and Chicago didn’t make any notable upgrades this offseason.
Furthermore, Burnes was dominant versus the Cubs in 2021 and the Brewers have won 7 consecutive games as road favorites with Burnes on the mound.
Also, Chicago was terrible against right-handed pitching last season, ranking 23rd in wRC+, 19th in wOBA and last in BB/K versus righties.
Lastly, even if Hendricks gives the Cubs a quality outing, Milwaukee’s lineup can certainly rally back against this awful Chicago bullpen. Cubs relievers were 28th in WAR, 22nd in xFIP and 25th in home runs allowed per 9 innings as a platoon after the All-Star break.
The BREWERS (-175) are expensive but are the right side because they have a decisive edge over the Cubs (+140).
The Brewers are a perfect 6-0 in their last six games at Wrigley Field and are 19-7 in their last 26 meetings with the Cubs overall. They’re also 22- 8 in their last 30 road games when facing a right-handed starter, are 25-10 in their last 35 games as a road favorite and are 9-4 in their last 13 road games when the total is set between 9 and 10.5 runs. On the other side, the Cubs are just 16-48 in their last 64 games as an underdog and 7-20 in their last 27 home games when facing a right-handed starter. Mill -185 /A.Rome
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The Brewers are a perfect 6-0 in their last six games at Wrigley Field and are 19-7 in their last 26 meetings with the Cubs overall. They’re also 22- 8 in their last 30 road games when facing a right-handed starter, are 25-10 in their last 35 games as a road favorite and are 9-4 in their last 13 road games when the total is set between 9 and 10.5 runs. On the other side, the Cubs are just 16-48 in their last 64 games as an underdog and 7-20 in their last 27 home games when facing a right-handed starter. Mill -185 /A.Rome
The under is 7-3-3 in the last 13 meetings between these two teams and is 3-0-3 in the last six meetings at Busch Stadium. The under is also 5-1 in the Cardinals’ last six games dating back to last season, is 5-1 in their last six games when they’re listed as a favorite and is 16-5 in their last 21 games when playing the first contest of a new series.
Pit/St.L UN 8 /A.Rome
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The under is 7-3-3 in the last 13 meetings between these two teams and is 3-0-3 in the last six meetings at Busch Stadium. The under is also 5-1 in the Cardinals’ last six games dating back to last season, is 5-1 in their last six games when they’re listed as a favorite and is 16-5 in their last 21 games when playing the first contest of a new series.
Bullpens and depth will loom large all month. Starters aren’t built up and the season swings into gear with rosters at 28 men. Advantage St. Louis in this one, but PIRATES +1.5 (-140) is the play with the best leverage overall.StL 5-4 /
Both clubs sported above-average offensive numbers in spring training. A chilly-but-strong-wind-out-to-right-center day is in the forecast. BACK THE OVER 7.5 (-130). By S.Snow
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Bullpens and depth will loom large all month. Starters aren’t built up and the season swings into gear with rosters at 28 men. Advantage St. Louis in this one, but PIRATES +1.5 (-140) is the play with the best leverage overall.StL 5-4 /
Both clubs sported above-average offensive numbers in spring training. A chilly-but-strong-wind-out-to-right-center day is in the forecast. BACK THE OVER 7.5 (-130). By S.Snow
My only counter would be the Pirates run line, was looking at Wainwright's career numbers off this Pitt lineup, and the only bat that is near a threat is Reynolds. I feel it might be more than a one-run game.
Def riding with the Brew-crew to get this season started.
Here's to a good season brother!
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Great stuff, I'll be following you all season
My only counter would be the Pirates run line, was looking at Wainwright's career numbers off this Pitt lineup, and the only bat that is near a threat is Reynolds. I feel it might be more than a one-run game.
Def riding with the Brew-crew to get this season started.
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