Posted:
#1
Putting 10% of my bankroll on:
Rays ML -147
Archer just signed his contract so I can't see him playing awful. The Rays have an all time winning percentage at home vs the Jays at 62%; last 2 years Rays have a 75% win percentage over the jays and they just dropped 2 in a row; I'm hoping for a bounce back in game 4 to split the series. Having said that, in both team's historic match ups in Tampa(since 1998) the Rays have only lost 3 in a row (in a single season) to the Jays only once back in 2001.
Now all these stats are nice, but this is still MLb and anything can happen, and that's the only thing keeping me from betting 25% or more of my bankroll on this play; anything can happen but stats and history favor the Rays here. Even if Rays lose tomorrow, I would bet this bet 10 times out of 10, it's the right play win or lose.
If the line happens to drop in Rays favor I may add another 1-3% on this play.
GL
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