YTD (MLB PLAYOFFS): 3-1 ATS
I have to say while I got lucky to hit that OVER last night the Mets bats went completely silent after running out to a 2 run lead and scoring 3 in two innings. I think a lot of the same comes into tonights game with so much pressure and so much on the line. I can appreciate that the Mets are the better team, far more popular team, and probably the most deserving team. But Milwaukee's bullpen has been spectacular and they have really owned the Mets, especially in Milwaukee (8-2 against NYM in the last 10).
On the other hand, the Milwaukee offense was lucky to score 5 runs last night and needed a late game 2 run HR to get to that number. Would they have won the game in extra innings? I think so. I think they are vastly underrated b/c of how terrible they are in the playoffs and how good the Mets have been. But let's not forget they have one of the best home records in baseball and some really good players at the top of the lineup. But what they really miss is Christian Yelich, and I don't think that Adames gives them enough power in the middle of the lineup, but that's my own opinion.
Tonight the Brewers will throw the young right hander in Tobias Myers, who has been very good this season. I think with some rest he's going to come out fresh and, if he falters, the Brewers will not waste time in getting into their bullpen. The Mets are excellent against LHP but they are not facing that today. For the Mets, they are having Jose Quintana on the mound and he has been sensational down the stretch, going 4-1 with a 0.90 ERA. Can't be much better than that!
The Mets were 20th against RHP this season and the Brewers were 14th against LHP. Quintana has fared well historically against the Brewers and has done ok in the postseason. I think these pitchers get stretched after the bullpens were last night and I think both have enough in the tank to keep the game interesting. NO dog in hunt from a side perspective, but I'm definitely backing:
NYM/MILWAUKEE FH UNDER 4
NYM/MILWAUKEE FG UNDER 7.5
I am playing BOTH tonight and obviously think you should as well. But do your own research and, as always, tail or fade, good luck to all...
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