YTD (MLB PLAYOFFS): 13-8 ATS (BIG PLAY!!!: 1-0 ATS)
Not much time for a write up but essentially I have the Dodgers on a future bet at (+300) so I'm going to be careful not to just blindly lay cash b/c I do NOT think they win this series with a sweep. Though if I did the odds for that are quite tasty. But it all begins with Game 1 and this is where I think the Dodgers have the advantage.
Too many people backing the UNDER, I really don't get it to be honest. I understand the lay off, and rustiness, but these teams both came out of the ASB layoff swinging so I'm not sure that's the right thesis for an UNDER. On the other hand, Gerritt Cole has been VERY good of late and bullpens will be rested. But the Dodgers are 8-1-1 in the past 10 to the OVER so I'm not crazy about an UNDER coming in here. Having worked on this side of a sportsbook I will say it's telling when the public seems to be backing the UNDER yet the spread moves up to the over. And yes, from what I hear, a lot of sharp money on the over.
But my play is more focused on the side that has a clear advantage tonight and that's the Dodgers. Out of the last 10 games played between these two sides, only ONE has been decided by a one run margin. Of course the stakes are much higher tonight but I think the Dodgers will have a very active home crowd trying to rattle the likes of Soto and Judge. The latter of whom we know has had incredible struggles in the post season, and I don't think the pressure and magnitude tonight changes that.
I'm going to back the Dodgers jumping out to a 1-0 series lead but I'm going to roll the dice a bit more for a healthier return. There's just too much value in the Dodgers tonight and on a short line that means a 2 run victory yields a very nice payback:
LAD -1.5 (+170)
I dont know who most handicappers are on tonight but from what I hear there is a big split in the money coming in. You can credit that to a NY team playing in the Series, not to the Yankees having as much of a chance, at least not tonight. Do your own research and, as always, tail or fade, good luck to all...
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