The under is 8-2 in the Rays’ last 10 games when listed as an underdog, is 8-1 in their last nine games overall and has cashed in five of their last six games when facing a team with a winning record. On the other side, the under is 5-2 in the Dodgers’ last seven World Series games, is 7-3 in their last 10 games coming off a win and is 3-1-1 in their last five interleague games when facing an opponent that has a winning record.
Even just going through the history of World Series winners in this league, in relative recent history since the 1970's, almost every time we've had a team make at least three World Series appearances in a stretch of about a handful of years (5-7 years), we've always seen that organization come away with at least one title.
All the ballpark data we have for the newly-opened Globe Life Park is based on a very small number of games (40), but it’s nevertheless interesting.
The Rangers played 30 regular-season games at Globe Life Park, and the roof was closed in 22 (73%) of those contests.
Unders went 11-9-2 (55%) with the roof closed with an average margin of victory of 0.84 runs. But with a record of 2-5-1 with the roof open, it lost by an average margin of 3.37 runs.
The roof has remained open in Arlington throughout the playoffs, and unders have gone 4-6, putting the
Glasnow finished the regular season 5-1 with a 4.08 ERA (57 1/3 IP, 26 ER) and 91 K in 11 starts. This postseason, he’s 2-1 with a 4.66 ERA (19 1/3 IP, 10 ER) and 25 K in 4 starts.
Kershaw went 6-2 with a 2.16 ERA (58 1/3 IP, 14 ER) in 10 regular-season starts in 2020. He’s 2-1 with a 3.32 ERA (19 IP, 7 ER) and 23 K in 3 playoff starts this fall.
You still like the under @ 7.5 runs? With the Dodgers bullpen on short rest? The Rays can manufacture runs but so can the Dodgers. Dodgers and Glasnow’s tendency’s to allow HRs can be crucial for the under possibly. It doesn’t seem too difficult for both to tack on four runs each, but then again I’m not capper and that’s just my outlook for this game.
Used Bullpen for LAD
Dodgers hit RHP well
TB being able to manufacture runs early and possibly get to Kershaw after his recent outings and injury.
Looking at the
FH Over 3.5 (-125)
FG Over 7.5 (-105)
Need some input before, not going to put it in until closer to game time.
On paper, offencively, this looks like a mismatch. During the regular season, the Dodgers scored 1.09 more runs per game than the Rays, with a wOBA that was 25 points higher, a wRC+ that was 13 points better, a wRAA that was 48 points better, an ISO that was 40 points better, and a 7.2% higher hard contact rate. Offensively, with the exception of striking out way too much (rank #29), the Rays were a little above average in pretty much every other offensive category this season. That’s not bad, but, with the exception of being a little light on walks (rank #12) the Dodgers ranked either 1 or 2 in every other significant offensive category. This Dodgers offense is elite and much better than the Rays mediocre offense.
As for the bullpen matchup, both of these bullpens were very good during the regular season. The Dodger pen won 1 more game than the Rays, but the Rays had a 23.7% higher save rate. However, the Dodgers had a 1.7% higher overall strand rate and allowed 0.06 fewer runs per inning pitched. They also had a 0.15 better WHIP, a 0.63 better ERA, better ERA metrics, a 0.8% better K rate and a 0.7% lower walk rate. In the postseason, both of these bullpens have been less effective that they were in the regular season. I suppose that’s not really all that surprising in this era where getting five good innings from a starting pitcher is considered a good start. As a rule, bullpens tend to get used more in the playoffs and this season with no days off for travel, even the very best bullpens will feel the strain. The Rays pen has posted a 1-2 record with a perfect 4 saves in 4 save opportunities. They have given up 27 runs (25 earned) on 63 hits and 28 walks over 63.2 innings with 57 Ks. That translates to a mediocre 1.43 WHIP, a solid 3,53 ERA and a 0.42 runs per inning pitched. By contrast, the Dodger pen has posted a 3-1 record with a perfect 5 saves in 5 save opportunities, giving up 22 runs (19 earned) on 44 hits and 14 walks over 47.2 innings, with 47 Ks. That translates to a solid 1.22 WHIP, 3.59 ERA and 0.46 runs per inning pitched.
As mentioned in my October 8 post on the final game of the Dodger/Padre series, my one concern with the Dodger pen was closer Kenley Jansen and his recent drop of about 1 mph in velocity. In the final game of the NLDS series against the Padres, Jansen gave up two 9 inning runs on 3 hits and 2 walks in just two thirds of an inning, and needed 30 pitches to get the two outs! Joe Kelly had to be brought in to get te final out and preserve the Dodgers win. Jansen has been the Dodgers' primary closer since 2012 but has shown signs of decline over the past couple of seasons. In 2019, he saved 33 games but posted a career-worst 3.71 ERA. This season, Jansen started strong but gave up 7 earned runs in back-to-back outings in September. He was averaging 93-94 mph earlier this season but rarely got above 90 mph in his postseason outings. In fairness, it should be noted that after a 10 day laoff, Jansen did pitch a perfect 9, getting the save in the Dodgers 3-1 win in Game 6.
It should be noted that the Rays did not play on Sunday, giving them an extra day of rest for their pen. My inclination is to simply say that both of these pens are both very good and call it even.
That brings us to the two starting pitchers and they are both very good.
Tyler Glasnow got progressively better as the season progressed. He started 11 games for the Rays during the regular season posting a 5-1 record with 6 good starts and 3 poor ones. However, his last 7 outings were particularly good resulting in all 6 of his good starts and just 1 poor one. Over that stretch Glasnow gave up just 14 runs on 26 hits and 12 walks over 42 innings with 64 Ks. The Ks were impressive, but the 17 walks were not. That left Glasnow with a solid 1.13 WHIP, but a mediocre 4.08 ERA. However, his ERA metrics were all considerably lower than his ERA. That tells me that Glasnow actually pitched better than his ERA would suggest. He hasn’t quite as well in the postseason. Glasnow is 2-1 with 1 good start and 2 poor ones. He’s given up 10 runs on 17 hits (6 HRs) and 8 walks over 19.1 innings with 25 Ks. That translates to a mediocre 1.29 WHIP and 4.66 ERA. One concern is the 17 HRs in just under 77 innings, including 6 in his four postseason starts.
Clayton Kershaw has now started 13 games for the Dodgers this season, posting an 8-2 record with 10 good starts and just 2 poor one. Kershaw posted a sparkling 0.84 WHIP and 2.16 this season. His ERA metrics were all a little higher than his stellar ERA, but still very good. The reason for that discrepancy is probably Kershaw’s low .232 BABIP, which was 32 point lower that his career average. He had an excellent 28.1% K rate and generated a surprisingly great 53% GB rate which was 6.5% better than his career rate of 46.5%. Kershaw is still a top notch starting pitcher and at 32 it sure seemed like the reduced 60 game season helped. Kershaw looked like he’d discovered the fountain of youth. He was brilliant in his first postseason start against the Brewers, tossing 8 shutout innings, allowing just 3 hits and 1 walk over 8 stunning innings with a whopping 13 Ks. Kershaw wasn’t quite as sharp in his NLDS start again the Padres, giving up 3 runs on 6 hits (2 HRs) over 6 innings with 6 Ks. He was scratched from his Game 3 NLCS start because of back spasms, but returned a day later as the Dodgers Game 4 starter. I can’t say for sure that his back was the problem, but I can say it was clearly his weakest postseason outing. In that game, Kershaw gave up 4 runs on 7 hits and a walk over 5 innings with 4 Ks and 10 GBs. I’m also comfortable saying the Manager Dave Roberts should have pulled him after 5 great innings. He never should have been sent out to pitch the 6, the inning that gave him all the trouble. In his three pstseason starts, Kernshaw is 2-1 with 2 good starts and 1 poor one. He has given up 7 runs on 16 hits and 2 walks over 19 innings with 23 Ks and a 48.9% GB rate. That still translates to a superb 0.95 WHIP and 3.32 ERA.
Kershaw’s back is still a legitimate concern, but so is Glasnow’s propensity for giving up the long ball and that’s something these Dodger hitters can definitely exploit. The Dodgers led the league with 118 HRs, 15 more than the 2 place Braves. So far this postseason, Kershaw and his balky back have outperformed Glasnow. If the future Hall of Famer is anywhere near 100% the Dodgers should have the starting pitching edge here.
’ve been on the Dodger bandwagon most of this season. I thought that they were the most talented team in baseball and were legitimate favorites to win it all, but recently, I’ve had some second thoughts. I thought that thie lack of starting pitching depth and closer Jansen’s struggles might prevent them from getting to the World Series again, but here they are in the World Series and favored to win it all.
These two offenses are not close. The Rays are a little above average, but the Dodgers are elite. As for the bullpens, they were both very good during the regular season, but both have shown cracks in this postseason. I’m still somewhat concerned about the whole Kenley Jansen thing and the effect it could have on the Dodgers’ pen. Still, despite Jansen’s problems, the Dodgers pen really hasn’t performed any worse in this postseason than the Rays pen has, so I’m calling the bullpens even. Both teams are excellent defensively. The Dodgers should have a small edge because this is their second straight series at Globe Life. By contrast, the Rays have never played at Globe Life. By the same token, the Rays should have an edge in the managerial department. Kevin Cash is the best in-game manager in baseball. I’ll charitably say that Dave Roberts is not.
I get the much better offense and IMHO the better starting pitcher. I'm all in on the Dodgers tonight.
Pick –LAD 1 5 ML (-149 for 3 units) and ML (-155 for 3 units) By For What its Worth
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