Money Ball 4-11-14

White Sox -160: No doubt someone thinks the Indians are a heck of “value” at +150, but we examine the evidence don’t we? Last year the best categorical percentage of wins in MLB was 64%, posted by the Indians versus left handed starters, BUT; what goes around comes around and some exceptional numbers just have to return to the median, or close to it. Thus far in 2014 the Tribe is 0-2-2 in the 5 inning game versus lefty and has established a 1.44 offensive era versus Kazmir, Stults, Erlin and Danks. None of those guys are better than Sale and only Kazmir can even be considered in the same breath. Danks did have one tough inning last night but did survive for the win, thanks to the performance of his offense versus the highly regarded Salazar. Now they get to face Sale, one of the best lefties in the game and a guy they defeated 4 times last year (trend followers must love that). A couple of those losses could have been salvaged, or at least less ugly, but the Sox were lousy with run support and Sale paid the price. Different year, different story. This years version of the Sox versus righty is 4-3-1 in the 5 inning game with an offensive era of 5.2.

To make sure I understand your financial limits, you didn't take them at -.5 because it was still a negative. Is that correct, or is it because you didn't feel strong enough that they would be ahead after 5?

Let's hit them key

That is true, the -1/2 is still negative juice, but another factor is that we are less than 2 weeks into the season and we should still be playing safe and building our bankrolls. Never forget there is no such thing as a free lunch. When you lower the odds you add risk.

Key - as you're always focused on risk vs reward, why buy into such heavy juice on the wsox? just curious. 

Thanks for the picks.

Gl Key

Great read.

The risk-reward breaks down like this
100/160 = .625 or $62.50 for each $100 played on the ChiSox
In order to play you must have a 61.5% or more probability of a win
I compute a minimum 66.2% probability based on the raw data
Mentally, from experience, I think the 66.2% is low, thanks to the other reasons I have cited. That is value.

Quote Originally Posted by KeyElement:

I am going to be cruel today and let the board ponder "WTF is he thinking?" then come in with the numbers and thoughts on all of them.

GL Key

GL Key

Best of luck today buddy...

I dont cap at all like you brother, but always love reading your threads.

 

To a prosperous season.

Finally put my card up and I both White Sox and Dodgers are include but I am playing full games there after digging into them myself.

Key, I was wondering why you didn't play Cin or the under 3.5 F5. Cueto has two quality starts 5/0, 5/0. Price has 1 quality start 5/0 and a bad start 5/4. But TB claims it was because he wasn't feeling well before the game. Cin is batting .214 vs lefties and only has 2 RBI's in 42 ABs. TB is batting .258 with 26 RBI's in 236 ABs vs Righties, but I believe that Cueto is one of the best they will be facing this early in the season. In addition, Tor loses the DH.

Thanks for posting, Key.  GL       

Another windy day here in BigD....more specifically Arlington....Feldman pitched lites out vs the Strangers when he was with the Scrubs.....looking for some revenge? we'll see.....GL brutha

I know your not a huge Dbacks fan but your hometown boys signed Randy Wolf just came across the screen. Their pitching woes are over.

Riding with you on the Under 4 stros and rangers.

Great picks. Thank you 

Allow me to be the 32nd well wisher in your thread.  BOL

Key!  get that

0-0 usually wins an under, doesn't it?