Money Ball 4-11-14

White Sox -160: No doubt someone thinks the Indians are a heck of “value” at +150, but we examine the evidence don’t we? Last year the best categorical percentage of wins in MLB was 64%, posted by the Indians versus left handed starters, BUT; what goes around comes around and some exceptional numbers just have to return to the median, or close to it. Thus far in 2014 the Tribe is 0-2-2 in the 5 inning game versus lefty and has established a 1.44 offensive era versus Kazmir, Stults, Erlin and Danks. None of those guys are better than Sale and only Kazmir can even be considered in the same breath. Danks did have one tough inning last night but did survive for the win, thanks to the performance of his offense versus the highly regarded Salazar. Now they get to face Sale, one of the best lefties in the game and a guy they defeated 4 times last year (trend followers must love that). A couple of those losses could have been salvaged, or at least less ugly, but the Sox were lousy with run support and Sale paid the price. Different year, different story. This years version of the Sox versus righty is 4-3-1 in the 5 inning game with an offensive era of 5.2.

To make sure I understand your financial limits, you didn't take them at -.5 because it was still a negative. Is that correct, or is it because you didn't feel strong enough that they would be ahead after 5?

Key - as you're always focused on risk vs reward, why buy into such heavy juice on the wsox? just curious. 

Thanks for the picks.

I dont cap at all like you brother, but always love reading your threads.

To a prosperous season.

Another windy day here in BigD....more specifically Arlington....Feldman pitched lites out vs the Strangers when he was with the Scrubs.....looking for some revenge? we'll see.....GL brutha