Royals: Shields
over Nolasco is a no brainer imho, and the Royals offense, considered to be in
a slump by many handicappers, is still a far better matchup offense for this
game than the Twinkies versus Shields.
Rockies-Giants OVER:
Remember what I pointed out about the Mariners versus lefty last night? 4-0 with
a 7.29 oera? Yeah, OK, and the Giants are 4-0 and 10.7. That is not a typo and
since Matt Cain is still a quality pitcher, but no longer “perfect game” Cain,
we should get a few from the Rockies as well.
Then you consider the laeft coast park in daylight, as opposed to after dark,
and you get an offensive game.
Nationals +115: I
suspect the world has fallen in love with the Braves pitching but does not
realize that although they have plenty of it, most of it is quite average and
Alex Wood falls into that category. I think both these clubs are vastly over
rated thanks to their being in the East and Taylor Jordan may be the most
valuable player on the field today. At a dog price I gotta go for it.
Astros +140: If a
team can’t hit and puts an inconsistent chucker on the hill why are they considered
a 60% probability to win the game? I pointed out yesterday they were a poor
righty hitting team and they proved it by taking 12 innings to post 1 run. The
Rangers are now 0-4-3 versus right handed starters and have an even worse oera
today than yesterday. It is now 0.58. Scheppers is no big deal at all and one
thing you can love about a team like the Astros is that when young guys are
building a future they never give up.
Tigers: Don’t let
last night fool you. That was a wake up call for the far better team and they
have the far better chucker and offense today. Coming off the Dodger series
(who they may meet in the World Series, they could be excused for a lack of focus,
but that will not be a problem today coming on the heels of a shutout.
Verlander Kennedy is a -147 match up right out of the box.
Mets: Hold your
nose if you have to, but Niese has skills that put him in Weavers class easily.
The Mutts are not over a 50% probability to win in my system, but are at 49%
and +143 is way too much to pass on. This si the third year Pujols era in Anaheim and the best
thing thay have going for them is Mike Trout. Someday Angels fans may learn to
eat their disappointment, but we, as gamblers, do not need to buy all the hype coming
out of a major media market. We need reality and probability, and that says the
Angels are not a dominant team by any means.
Athletics: How
many times can I say it? What goes around comes around and all the favorable
factors tonight swing over to the A’s. The right handed Gray is a more
difficult matchup for the Mariners than the lefty Milone (as well as a superior
pitcher), and he is not going toe to toe with Felix Hernandez. These two teams
are in a war to win the division and they know either one of them can do it. No
hype, just reality. If the Astros want to climb out of the gutter, they need to
set their sights on the Rangers and Angels.
6 unearned runs
are burying us in Minnesota,
but that is the nature of the beast.
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