Money Ball 4-13-14

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3-30                  Opening Bankroll $10,000.00 All wagers are FLAT, do not add the juice

4-12

Royals F5, -145 (Shields / Nolasco) -200

Rockies-Giants FG, OVER 8, -110 (Anderson / Cain) -200

Nationals F5 +115 (Jordan / Wood) -200

Astros F5 +140 (Cosart / Scheppers) +280

Tigers F5 -130 (Verlander / Kennedy) +153.85

Mets F5 +143 (Niese / Weaver) -200

Athletics F5 -130 (Gray / Ramirez) +153.85

4-12 Bankroll $11,782.37 (RoR +29.7%) YTD 17-8-5

5 Inning Plays Today All plays are $200

Orioles F5, -115 (Jimenez / Buehrle)

Dodgers F5 -120 (Haren / Cahill)

The procedure today is

1) Get the plays up

2) Get the analysis up

3) Address every game from yesterday, good, bad, and ugly

4) Ignore those that don’t like it

5) Spend Sunday the way I always do, Church and Family

BOL

Key, what do you think about the Royals-Twins. I went back to 2011, 2012 and 2013. Vargas has stunk it up in ALL starts in Min.

In two starts at home last year Correia gave up 5/5 and 5/2. At KC he went 5/0, 2/6, 5/0. I'm thinking Min ml and over 4.5

5) Spend Sunday the way I always do, Church and Family

Orioles: The Blue Jays are 1-1 in this series but have scored only 3 runs, none of them earned, versus the two right handed starters, Tillman and Norris. Jimenez is in a class with Tillman and superior to Norris, so the F5 prospectus for the BJ’s is not really impressive today. The benchmark for oera is 4, and the Jays are 2.7 thus far on the season versus righty, also not impressive. The Orioles have not scored an earned run in either game themselves, but do have a 3.65 oera versus lefty and an offensive probability edge of 33.7/31.9 in my ratings. Again, based on probability from my computations, I give Jimenez a line value over Buehrle of 39.7 cents, so overall my computation is Orioles -146. We need a win probability of 53.5%, we have 59.3, a margin of 5.8%. Good enough for me.  

Dodgers: The world continues to await a significant string of victories from the Diamondbacks while I continue to have my projections confirmed. This team sucks, and Trevor Cahill is not the answer to any of the problems, especially starting pitching. The only thing I am waiting for is Kevin Towers to throw Kirk Gibson in front of the bus for the performance of a team he (Towers) built. I am going to skip all the math on this one because it really gets ugly but I will tell you I make the Dodgers -166 today, even though the Diamondbacks are playing to avoid the sweep.