5-07
$410 Rangers +119, (Lewis/Guthrie) L
$410 Mets -112, (deGrom/Collmenter) W
$410 Rays -129, (Archer/Montgomery) W
YTD 71-44, +$8,466.91 (+32.75% RoR)
$423 Marlins +140, (Haren/Buehrle)
$423 Cubs +116, (Lester/Sanchez)
Marlins: Scary? Yeah, maybe so, but road dogs are where you consistently draw odds that are out of proportion to the probability of the game results. Haren wins the quality start aspect of this matchup at 7-4 to Buehrle’s 5-6 but is disrespected as is the Marlins potential offense versus Buehrle, a guy that is hard to handicap because his skills give the lie to his accomplishments. He is this decade’s version of Jamie Moyer to put it bluntly. He could come up with a gem, but if the Marlins offense is patient he will give you something to hit before he strikes you out.
Cubs: This one is all a matter of who’s hot and who’s not. The offenses are a coin flip, but Lester has gotten his act together and Sanchez is really struggling this year. According to my numbers there is a 77% to 59% probability that Lester gives you a better game than Sanchez. Given a +$ ticket at the betting window I think we have to play.
There is a very good chance I will be back for tomorrow’s action, then the travel schedule gets crazy again, but I am tiring of it and will be glad to get back to my man cave by Saturday or Sunday.
BOL
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