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Money Ball 6-14-2015

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Posted: #26
Quote Originally Posted by agroirish:

Welcome back Key!  I believe Gee just got back from funeral of his Grandmother 2 days ago?  Wondering if this is factored in your play today?  Thanks a bunch for your time and picks.  BOL
Not really. It is impossible to predict the effect one way or the other and my prior history on him indicates he can't get better and probably will regress more than he has. Any dog can have a good day but in his case I show he has a 43% chance of throwing a better than (for him) average game. His average game will not beat us.
Now and then even a BLIND squirrel can find an acorn
 
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Posted: #27
Awesome, thanks for reply.  Still tailing.
 
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Posted: #28
Good luck Key!
 
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Posted: #29
BOL Key
 
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Posted: #30
Welcome back, Key. Do your thing, Hoss.
 
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Posted: #31
Key, never leave us man. You're the sole reason I (and I bet a majority of others) visit the site regularly. Its not over yet but the Braves look good as of right now 
 
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Posted: #32

GL

 
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Posted: #33
Byron Buxton will make his major-league debut Sunday as the reeling Twins look to halt a five-game slide and avert a three-game sweep at the hands of the host Texas Rangers.
 
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Posted: #34
Jeeze no one can get outs in this Mets braves game. 
 
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Posted: #35
Twinkies have been slighting big-time but I think they can bounce back 1 win. Hughes has been terrible this year, that's true, but Texas hitters are hitting 213 against him with only one home run and 83 plate appearances with Prince Fielder having the only dinger, of course. Hughes is from California and probably doesn't like pitching cold weather. It's nice and toasty down in Texas. After torii Hunter's tirade the Twinkies reached a new low, but they were once soaring high so I don't think this slide is permanent.
 
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Posted: #36
Quote Originally Posted by Jeffyg1135:

Key, never leave us man. You're the sole reason I (and I bet a majority of others) visit the site regularly. Its not over yet but the Braves look good as of right now 

Talk about jinxing it 
 
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Posted: #37
Amazing how bad the Atlanta bullpen is. It looks like batting practice
 
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Posted: #38
Folty rarely pitches 6 innings and he's the worst starter on their team. That means you need at least 3 innings from the bullpen which prolly gives up 1-2 runs per inning.  Not a good combo to bet on!
 
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Posted: #39
Key, thank you for providing your picks for us here but question for you... do you ever take bullpens into consideration when capping games? I really haven't seen you mention pens in your write ups so I'm curious. Been burned so many time from unreliable pens that many times i'm kicking myself for not picking a FF that would have won, instead of being stuck with the full game that lost due to a bullpen meltdown...

Braves game being a good example of this.. Even if they come back and win, the percived edge you picked up on w/ starting pitching was nullified by the Braves bullpen. And their meltdown didn't come out of nowhere b/c at this stage in the season, we know how undependable they are. In instances like these, when you have a team with a bottom 5 pen playing a team where we have a percieved  starting pitching edge; priced at a good value... why not take the FF as opposed to risking the full game?  Curious to hear your answer.

 
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Posted: #40
Quote Originally Posted by Rio501:

Key, thank you for providing your picks for us here but question for you... do you ever take bullpens into consideration when capping games? I really haven't seen you mention pens in your write ups so I'm curious. Been burned so many time from unreliable pens that many times i'm kicking myself for not picking a FF that would have won, instead of being stuck with the full game that lost due to a bullpen meltdown...

Braves game being a good example of this.. Even if they come back and win, the percived edge you picked up on w/ starting pitching was nullified by the Braves bullpen. And their meltdown didn't come out of nowhere b/c at this stage in the season, we know how undependable they are. In instances like these, when you have a team with a bottom 5 pen playing a team where we have a percieved  starting pitching edge; priced at a good value... why not take the FF as opposed to risking the full game?  Curious to hear your answer.



long time checker of Key's thread. Pretty sure he did this before and only took F5 plays. Also I am sure he's taking the pen into play as I would think everyone knows it's very rare for someone to throw a complete game.
 
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Posted: #41
Quote Originally Posted by Jarrett75:



long time checker of Key's thread. Pretty sure he did this before and only took F5 plays. Also I am sure he's taking the pen into play as I would think everyone knows it's very rare for someone to throw a complete game.


I'm also pretty sure he can speak for himself..

and surely he doesn't need you to speak for him in response to what was a reasonable question.. in the form of some half-witted attempt at humor disguised as teenage sarcasm.

Anyways, even if he has taken FF before, the question still stands and would kindly prefer to hear from the man himself as opposed to some random nobody. TY.
 
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Posted: #42
Quote Originally Posted by Rio501:



I'm also pretty sure he can speak for himself..

and surely he doesn't need you to speak for him in response to what was a reasonable question.. in the form of some half-witted attempt at humor disguised as teenage sarcasm.

Anyways, even if he has taken FF before, the question still stands and would kindly prefer to hear from the man himself as opposed to some random nobody. TY.


well so much for being polite. I am also sure Key doesn't need some fuckface coming in his thread telling him how to cap games. How about you start your own thread and make your picks jerk.
 
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Posted: #43
Eh? No where in my post did I tell him how to cap games? And you were far from polite in your post. Read things all the way through and don't be so sensitive and knee-jerk reactionary.

Some of us here are trying to learn as opposed to just tail, hence the reasoning for my question.

And the last thing I want to do is engage you. So respectully.. go away. TY.
 
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Posted: #44
Quote Originally Posted by Rio501:

Eh? No where in my post did I tell him how to cap games? And you were far from polite in your post. Read things all the way through and don't be so sensitive and knee-jerk reactionary.

Some of us here are trying to learn as opposed to just tail, hence the reasoning for my question.

And the last thing I want to do is engage you. So respectully.. go away. TY.

You're not trying to learn. You're trying to come across as some wiser than thou smartass who has some relevant information to point out after the game is over. Like Jarrett said, start your own thread and break down the game before it starts. We'll see how sharp you really are. 
 
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Posted: #45
Quote Originally Posted by Rio501:

Eh? No where in my post did I tell him how to cap games? And you were far from polite in your post. Read things all the way through and don't be so sensitive and knee-jerk reactionary.

Some of us here are trying to learn as opposed to just tail, hence the reasoning for my question.

And the last thing I want to do is engage you. So respectully.. go away. TY.


1. I told you I was a longtime viewer of his thread and tried to advise you nicely that I am pretty sure this is something he's done before.
2. I told you that everyone takes bullpens into account as a complete game is rare.

So where was I remotely rude to you or even sarcastic. Key has a life and I was simply trying to give someone who is clearly new to the forum, a somewhat accurate answer until he chose to respond, IF he did. So I will go enjoy my games and you can keep sitting at your computer waiting for a response.
 
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Posted: #46
Quote Originally Posted by Getty3:


You're not trying to learn. You're trying to come across as some wiser than thou smartass who has some relevant information to point out after the game is over. Like Jarrett said, start your own thread and break down the game before it starts. We'll see how sharp you really are. 



 
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Posted: #47
I thought the bullpen question that Rio501 asked was a good one and am interested to hear the OP's response. However, Rio501's responses to the other posters seemed rude, obnoxious and arrogant to say the least.
 
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Posted: #48
If the inquiry came across in a smart assy way, then I sincerely apologize... to Key if he interpreted that way.

But you guys need to stop assuming things. I admit I was being arrogant and rude with my responses to you guys but I don't take kind to sarcasm. I'll drop this issue.

However the question, as posed is legit. It's a general question regarding backing teams for full games w/ crappy pens when there is a percieved starting edge as good value. The Braves game was used an example because it just happened! It was also the latest example of a game I lost that would have won if taken F5. I even indicated in my post that it was I that was getting burned by these picks... many of which came from my own picks.

Baseball is a tough market for me and I appreciate Key. Even mentioned it in my post.

So guys.. please stop being so sensitive. And let Key respond should he choose to.

 
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Posted: #49
OK guys lets start capping key. his writeup today did not have the normal pitcher stats or any discussion of the braves pitching staff. so if you were sharp you knew not to follow key today. he just came off vacation. much like a MLB team off a road trip, he needs a day to get back to speed. mmmk?

hows that for monday morning QB.

 
 
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Posted: #50
Quote Originally Posted by Jarrett75:




2. I told you that everyone takes bullpens into account as a complete game is rare.




Actually many people do not... or if they do they don't weight it strongly enough to curtail a full game pick. Which is why I thought you were being sarcastic. If you weren't then my bad.


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