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Money Ball 6-23-2014

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https://www.covers.com/postingforum/post01/showmessage.aspx?spt=27&sub=101859576

Copy and paste the link above for prior year’s information and this year’s format.

3-30 Opening Bankroll $10,000.00 All wagers are FLAT, do not add the juice

6-22, 4-1, +447.20

Reds, F5, -141 (Dickey / Cueto) W

Astros, F5, +101 (Keuchel / Bedard) W

White sUx, F5, +134 (Danks / Hughes) L

Giants, F5, -149 (Bumgarner / Bolsinger) W

Dodgers, F5, -141 (Ryu / Stults) W

6-23 Bankroll $11,122.01 (RoR +2.6%) YTD 92-86-21 (51.7%)

All plays today are $222.00

Yankees-Blue Jays, Under 5, F5, -115 (Whitley / Stroman)

BOL

Yankees: Both of the young starters are under valued in this spot. The love of the public for both offenses has created a very high number Last 15 versus righty the Yankees are producing only 3.2 earned runs per 9 and the BJ’s just 2.3.

Might have one more later, not sure yet.

Now and then even a BLIND squirrel can find an acorn
 
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Posted: #2
bol key
 
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BOL!
 
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Posted: #6
Hey key what are your thoughts on cinci even money against th cubs? Think cinci bats get itdone?
 
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Nicely done yesterday.
 
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Good job yesterday. GL today
 
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Posted: #9
Good Job Yesterday!

Key, Does it make you nervous that both pitchers just faced each other last week?  I totally agree with your logic but I think pitchers have a big advantage first time through the league but I'm afraid that won't be the case
 
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Posted: #10
Quote Originally Posted by pacdaddy69:

Hey key what are your thoughts on cinci even money against th cubs? Think cinci bats get itdone?
Probably
Now and then even a BLIND squirrel can find an acorn
 
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Quote Originally Posted by Chambers:

Good Job Yesterday!

Key, Does it make you nervous that both pitchers just faced each other last week?  I totally agree with your logic but I think pitchers have a big advantage first time through the league but I'm afraid that won't be the case.
Your money, your choice. Do what you want to do. Follow your gut or your heart.

Now and then even a BLIND squirrel can find an acorn
 
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Posted: #12
Quote Originally Posted by KeyElement:

Your money, your choice. Do what you want to do. Follow your gut or your heart.



Always!  I respect your opinion so I was just curious if that was an angle you subscribed to generally and if it factored in to your play.   I can't say I have watched either pitcher close enough to see if they have legit stuff or if hitters just haven't caught on yet.  The # seems high it's an under play or no play, I will probably tail like I usually do.


 
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Posted: #13
Quote Originally Posted by Chambers:


Always!  I respect your opinion so I was just curious if that was an angle you subscribed to generally and if it factored in to your play.   I can't say I have watched either pitcher close enough to see if they have legit stuff or if hitters just haven't caught on yet.  The # seems high it's an under play or no play, I will probably tail like I usually do.
That being said, I will expound a little further for you. The total of 5 is set by public perception. The perception is rookie starter + rookie starter + Yankees offense + BJ's offense + the park. To the public that just screams OVER, and they will bet that way. But what is the reality. The park won't change so I will have to concede that, but isn't the park factor established by the performances of the BJ's and their opponents offenses? Of course it is, the park itself does not score runs, that is up to the pitchers and hitters. Now, versus an MLB benchmark of 66.7, Whitley and Stroman check in at 73.8, 70.6, indicating both are doing very well in their limited number of starts, 7 and 4. So, as noted above, they are probably under valued. There is one perception exploded. As for the offenses, the Yankees have turned in only 5 quality performances versus the last 15 right handed starters they have faced and are scoring only 3.2 earned runs per game. The BJ's look a little better at 8 of 15, but somehow are scoring only 2.3 earned runs per 9. With an MLB benchmark of 4 per 9, you are left with your team (Whitley-Stroman) having a large advantage over the other team (Yanks-BJ's offenses). Advantages of the pitching team over the offensive team should neutralize the park factor. BOL 
Now and then even a BLIND squirrel can find an acorn
 
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BTW The under is getting hammered by the early morning sharps

The juice is now -123 at Pinnacle and -120 everywhere else. They will only go so far, then lower it to 4.5 and let the public throw money at the over.

Now and then even a BLIND squirrel can find an acorn
 
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What did I say? It is down to 4.5 and the juice has now flipped to tge over, so now you can watch people pick the over. Nearer game time, working boys get home, amateur money balances the books.

Now and then even a BLIND squirrel can find an acorn
 
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Posted: #16
BOL today Key, like the play a lot
 
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Posted: #17
GL tonight Mr. Element
 
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Yeh I took 4.5 at -105,sure the over will get hit now,but I don't have time to wait,some of us work you know,
 
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Keep rolling key , good luck 
 
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Posted: #20
Full Game now down to 8.5 total.   I jumped on it early with your analyis and got it at 9.5.  
 
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Quote Originally Posted by JEG53:

Yeh I took 4.5 at -105,sure the over will get hit now,but I don't have time to wait,some of us work you know,
Work? Can I find that in the dictionary?
Now and then even a BLIND squirrel can find an acorn
 
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So let me get this right. After half a season or more, you are 2.6% up after all of your extended previews and that's great stuff.  Yet Kaka is at least 20% up without previews and I nearly 30% up this season. But because you write stuff the gang luv you. Got it now.
 
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In reality I don't know a single player on Covers who has bettered my record this season.
 
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Quote Originally Posted by Learnersrealm:

So let me get this right. After half a season or more, you are 2.6% up after all of your extended previews and that's great stuff.  Yet Kaka is at least 20% up without previews and I nearly 30% up this season. But because you write stuff the gang luv you. Got it now.



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