Money Ball 7-01-2015

6-30

$433 Pirates -111, (Cole/Verlander) W

$433 White Sox +105, (Sale/Lynn) W

YTD 93-61, +$10,574.97 (+25.43% RoR)

7-01

$469 Rockies +174, (Bettis/Hahn)

$469 Phillies +107, (Lohse/Harang)

$469 White Sox +136, (Quintana/Lackey)

BOL

Rockies: Play to +124. A lot of theories come into play with the betting public believing in things like “the better team, at home” and “road team got a win, now they lose” BUT; those things are theories or truisms, not facts. The fact is Bettis is flying under the radar. The fact is the Rockies concede nothing here except home field and I have said enough times that is a consistently overvalued aspect of the game. Now I will concede that this qualifies as a value play, since I do not compute the Rockies witn a winning probability, only 47.1%, but that would justify a line of +112, not +168. Even at +124 there would exist a respectable edge to play for, but 168 is enormous.

Phillies: Play to -134. Kyle Lohse as a road favorite? One of the worst pitchers of the season on one of the worst teams of the season? Harang has slipped a little lately, but only to the point where his line value exceeds Lohse by 56 cents and his offense has shown some life lately. The Brewers are just 2-5 when Lohse takes the ball on the road and he personally, overall, is 6-10 h2h, and 4-12 in quality starts. That does not look like a road favorite to me.

White Sox: Play to even money. Yes, the Cardinals struggles with lefties could easily continue tonight versus Quintana, who is no Sales, but neither is anyone else this year. By the same token, Jon Lackey is no Lance Lynn either, so we move on to the offenses. We know the ChiSox are pathetic so nothing to really discuss there, but the overvalued Cardinals are no great shakes either. The Cardinals oera last 6 versus lefty starters is now just 1.49 and last night they didn’t get to any one of 4 relievers either, 3 of them right handed.