Money Ball 7-29-2015

7-28

$445 Athletics +125 Gray (14-6) / Anderson (9-10) W

YTD 109-78 (58.29%), +$10,907.16 (+19.78% RoR)

(11-10 = 63.7%) à for the football-basketball mentality

7-29

$457 Marlins -101, Fister (4-9) / Koehler (13-5)

$457 White Sox +111, Quintana (10-10) / Porcello (6-13)

Marlins: Play to -130: It should be obvious to sharper handicappers that Doug Fister is the odd man out in a fine rotation. Not only does he lower the Nationals power rating and win probability but once again the Nationals offense has taken a vacation. Every time Harper has a few hot days the public perception of him and that Nationals vaults into the stratosphere, when the reality is that without their better pitching (exclude Fister) they really aren’t much of a team right now. Just 6 quality performances in their last 15 versus righty and projecting 2.8 earned runs per 9 versus the average righty. Therein lies a problem. Tom Koehler is not your “average” righty. He has very quietly amassed that 13-5 quality start record and his offense (the one everyone loves to hate) is every bit as capable of a quality performance as the underachieving Nats.

White Sox: Play to -126: Please concede that Quintana is significantly better than Porcello so that we can dispense with that discussion and move on. Currently the Red Sux have produced only 2 quality performances versus lefty in their last 7 tries and those were against Jon Danks and Matt Boyd, who no one will ever confuse with quality lefties or nominate for the HOF. Having lost 9 of their last 11 versus lefty starters probably does not scare Quintana very badly either. In the meantime, back at the ranch, the White Sox have knocked off 5 straight righties, every one of them better than Rick Porcello. I currently have them projected at 6.7 earned runs per 9 versus the average righty and Porcello is definitely below the Mendoza line in that regard.

Yeah, right, and last night you were worried about a bullpen we didn’t need, dickhead. Every year we get guys that are extremely lucky or unlucky for a season, and today we have two of them matched up. No way I lay juice with Kluber, even though the skills and odds are there. Kluber is 14-7 for quality starts, but only 9-12 for h2h wins because the Indians offense makes every one of Kluber’s opponents look like Sonny Gray. Guthrie is really short on quality starts at 6-13, but is 10-9 in h2h, which means the Royals have just hit the sh.it out of the ball when he starts (maybe they know they will need to?). On a related subject; Were I Ned Yost it would not be Chris Young removed from the rotation, as he has far better skill sets than Guthrie, but maybe Ned knows where Guthrie’s karma is coming from and is scared to mess with it.

There is no guarantee any or all are up to speed at this point. It is not enough to upset the applecart in relation to this pick.

Quote Originally Posted by JEG53:

Yeh that was a nice win by Oakland,but at the rate they are giving up players they are going to be a hard team to bet on.
I did not know the line on Cleveland as I missed it,just know you like betting against that pitcher,
relaxdickhead,its still early.

Well then perhaps you should have your coffee and wake up before addressing me, dickhead. As for those A’s being unbettable, that is the current public perception, but what often happens is those guys that have been riding the pine or busting their arses in AAA see an opportunity and make the most of it. If the public drives the line the wrong way that team remains very, very bettable.  

Quote Originally Posted by tbogie:

Hey Key, I know someone asked you last week if you capped football, but didn't see if you responded. So was wondering if you do. Thx for the picks today, and BOL!

I would like to get back into it but the fatigue from keeping up on baseball daily for seven months leaves me pretty short of the energy to properly prep for the football season. I might, but don’t hold your breath. If I can’t do it right, I simply won’t do it.