8-02
$417 Diamondbacks +139, Ray (8-3) / McHugh (11-10) L
$417 Mariners -1.5, +135, Iwakuma (3-5) / Pelfrey (11-8) W
YTD 112-85 (56.85%), +$9,470.84 (+15.89% RoR)
(11-10 = 62.6%) à for the football-basketball mentality
8-02
$420 Diamondbacks +142, Godley (2-0) / Fister (5-9)
Write up and leans shortly, but I expect tis line to get worse, not better.
BOL
Diamondbacks: Play to -133: Tough weekend for the Nationals @ the Mets but the situation may not get any better today. Going home cannot be considered an elixir that cures all problems and creates better play and probability all by itself. The Nats are 5-5 last 10 home games and the D-bax are 5-5 last 10 and 10-10 last 20 on the road. For the sake of that guy that thinks I paly too many road teams I will tell him this and we will find out if he reads the posts or just gripes and moves on. HFA on average is worth 11 cents in true value between two comparable teams. The true value can be as low as 0 or as high as 20 cents, but the linemakers know that Joe Six Pack loves his home teams, so the actual built in disadvantage in the line ranges from 20 to 40 cents. No matter the true value you always over pay for the comfort of going with the home team, and that is all you are buying, comfort, not probability. With Godley & the D-bax at 2-0 as a team and the D-bax producing 4.54 earned offensive runs per 9 since the break, versus righty, and the Nats 5-9 with Fister (3-4 home) producing 2.82 earned offensive runs per 9, I fail to see hardly any HFA for the Nats. Obviously the Nats have no prior experience versus Godley and Fister’s only start versus the D-bax was over 14 months ago, so a any trends or “career versus” would be totally irrelevant.
BOL
Rays-Jays, Opinion only: Price is the favorite for some very good reasons, but is overpriced (no pun intended) to the max. On the other hand Santana does not impress as a dog, other than taking a flyer on the big bonus bucks. You guys that lean toward the UNDER may have a good call. Good pitching beats good offense and deep pocket totals players have already pushed the opener of 8.5 down to 8. My machine says 7.5 from two different angles so I think the UNDER is the way I would roll. BOL
Rays-Jays, Opinion only: Price is the favorite for some very good reasons, but is overpriced (no pun intended) to the max. On the other hand Santana does not impress as a dog, other than taking a flyer on the big bonus bucks. You guys that lean toward the UNDER may have a good call. Good pitching beats good offense and deep pocket totals players have already pushed the opener of 8.5 down to 8. My machine says 7.5 from two different angles so I think the UNDER is the way I would roll. BOL
Diamondbacks: Play to -133: Tough weekend for the Nationals @ the Mets but the situation may not get any better today. Going home cannot be considered an elixir that cures all problems and creates better play and probability all by itself. The Nats are 5-5 last 10 home games and the D-bax are 5-5 last 10 and 10-10 last 20 on the road. For the sake of that guy that thinks I paly too many road teams I will tell him this and we will find out if he reads the posts or just gripes and moves on. HFA on average is worth 11 cents in true value between two comparable teams. The true value can be as low as 0 or as high as 20 cents, but the linemakers know that Joe Six Pack loves his home teams, so the actual built in disadvantage in the line ranges from 20 to 40 cents. No matter the true value you always over pay for the comfort of going with the home team, and that is all you are buying, comfort, not probability. With Godley & the D-bax at 2-0 as a team and the D-bax producing 4.54 earned offensive runs per 9 since the break, versus righty, and the Nats 5-9 with Fister (3-4 home) producing 2.82 earned offensive runs per 9, I fail to see hardly any HFA for the Nats. Obviously the Nats have no prior experience versus Godley and Fister’s only start versus the D-bax was over 14 months ago, so a any trends or “career versus” would be totally irrelevant.
BOL
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