The Cubs have not given up on catching the Pirates
and the Pirates have not given up catching the Cardinals. All is well in the
N.L. Central. The question I can’t answer is what has happened to J.A. Happ
with the Pirates? He had a golden opportunity to excel at Seattle, a great
pitchers park and even more so for a lefty, but he did nothing exceptional. His
last 6 starts for the Mariners he scored an unimpressive average of 60 on my
scale, and 4 of those were in pitchers parks. Suddenly with the Pirates his
first 6 he has scored an average of 72.7, and 4 of those 6 have been in hitters
parks. Maybe he is ingesting something we are unaware of, or possibly is just
happier back in the Midwest, close to his home state of Illinois. Whatever it
is both he and the Pirates are very happy about it and they should keep right
on rolling versus the far weaker Sampson and an offense that is not scaring any
lefty these days.
BOL
Now and then even a BLIND squirrel can find an acorn
The Cubs have not given up on catching the Pirates
and the Pirates have not given up catching the Cardinals. All is well in the
N.L. Central. The question I can’t answer is what has happened to J.A. Happ
with the Pirates? He had a golden opportunity to excel at Seattle, a great
pitchers park and even more so for a lefty, but he did nothing exceptional. His
last 6 starts for the Mariners he scored an unimpressive average of 60 on my
scale, and 4 of those were in pitchers parks. Suddenly with the Pirates his
first 6 he has scored an average of 72.7, and 4 of those 6 have been in hitters
parks. Maybe he is ingesting something we are unaware of, or possibly is just
happier back in the Midwest, close to his home state of Illinois. Whatever it
is both he and the Pirates are very happy about it and they should keep right
on rolling versus the far weaker Sampson and an offense that is not scaring any
lefty these days.
Key I have some advice I think I can offer to help in your little downslide. I've noticed you make picks lately before seeing the lineups. The bucs have been putting several bench players in Starting lineup lately and have suffered offensively and defensively. This bet before seeing the lineup is wreckless. With that being said I'm tailing you and will take this game most likely. Go bucs!
0
Key I have some advice I think I can offer to help in your little downslide. I've noticed you make picks lately before seeing the lineups. The bucs have been putting several bench players in Starting lineup lately and have suffered offensively and defensively. This bet before seeing the lineup is wreckless. With that being said I'm tailing you and will take this game most likely. Go bucs!
Key I have some advice I think I can offer to help in your little downslide. I've noticed you make picks lately before seeing the lineups. The bucs have been putting several bench players in Starting lineup lately and have suffered offensively and defensively. This bet before seeing the lineup is wreckless. With that being said I'm tailing you and will take this game most likely. Go bucs!
I won't go into a great deal of detail about the impact of substitute players at the major league level, but suffice it to say I do not see it as significant when the Reds have won only one of their last nine versus lefty and are scoring, on average, 3.26 earned runs per 9 innings. Even the game they won they only got to the horrible Jeff Locke for 1 earned run in 5 innings, then beat the bullpen. If the 9 starters can be be considered average, which is usually the case over 9 games, then they are not well off versus Happ, the way he has been pitching lately. The Pirates have scored an average of 4.3 earned runs per 9 their last 15 versus righty, and that actually rises to 4.4 since call up date 9/1. If those can be considered average pitchers then Sampson could get shelled, as he has not shown a quality start his last 4 straight. Judging starting lineups is a very difficult thing to do, when not knowing the managers intent or strategy, but his strategy in a pennant race is NEVER to write off a game and his substitutions will always have a solid reason for being chosen.
Now and then even a BLIND squirrel can find an acorn
0
Quote Originally Posted by salegof:
Key I have some advice I think I can offer to help in your little downslide. I've noticed you make picks lately before seeing the lineups. The bucs have been putting several bench players in Starting lineup lately and have suffered offensively and defensively. This bet before seeing the lineup is wreckless. With that being said I'm tailing you and will take this game most likely. Go bucs!
I won't go into a great deal of detail about the impact of substitute players at the major league level, but suffice it to say I do not see it as significant when the Reds have won only one of their last nine versus lefty and are scoring, on average, 3.26 earned runs per 9 innings. Even the game they won they only got to the horrible Jeff Locke for 1 earned run in 5 innings, then beat the bullpen. If the 9 starters can be be considered average, which is usually the case over 9 games, then they are not well off versus Happ, the way he has been pitching lately. The Pirates have scored an average of 4.3 earned runs per 9 their last 15 versus righty, and that actually rises to 4.4 since call up date 9/1. If those can be considered average pitchers then Sampson could get shelled, as he has not shown a quality start his last 4 straight. Judging starting lineups is a very difficult thing to do, when not knowing the managers intent or strategy, but his strategy in a pennant race is NEVER to write off a game and his substitutions will always have a solid reason for being chosen.
I have a serious question. You and I had minor, but obvious differences of opinions in the past on a couple topics, but that is meaningless here. I am not being calous, rude, or attempting to be otherwise offensive in any way here, but I am perplexed by this play. Though I believe it has a better chance at winning than not;
Why play it RL if you had been running ice cold for months?
I understand your paradigm in holding ROI and RoR as paramount, but I can't help but seeing this as your over complicating the game at the expense of the simplicity of the game. As Einstein said, "Genius is simplifying the complex", and I (once again I am honestly not attempting to be insulting in ANY way).
In other words, your respect for RoR is so intense, and your lack of respect for win% is so minimal that you are losing site of the fact that you are playing plus lines, but losing almost all of them. I would offer this; I just went through the worst week of my season, so my focus on the first three days of this week? Just win (within reason, I am not playing all -200 lines, on the contrary actually) but the Win is paramount, and if you play a game on the RL when you are running badly, well, I just don't understand that logic brother. BOL in pulling out of it.
0
I have a serious question. You and I had minor, but obvious differences of opinions in the past on a couple topics, but that is meaningless here. I am not being calous, rude, or attempting to be otherwise offensive in any way here, but I am perplexed by this play. Though I believe it has a better chance at winning than not;
Why play it RL if you had been running ice cold for months?
I understand your paradigm in holding ROI and RoR as paramount, but I can't help but seeing this as your over complicating the game at the expense of the simplicity of the game. As Einstein said, "Genius is simplifying the complex", and I (once again I am honestly not attempting to be insulting in ANY way).
In other words, your respect for RoR is so intense, and your lack of respect for win% is so minimal that you are losing site of the fact that you are playing plus lines, but losing almost all of them. I would offer this; I just went through the worst week of my season, so my focus on the first three days of this week? Just win (within reason, I am not playing all -200 lines, on the contrary actually) but the Win is paramount, and if you play a game on the RL when you are running badly, well, I just don't understand that logic brother. BOL in pulling out of it.
The Cubs have not given up on catching the Pirates
and the Pirates have not given up catching the Cardinals. All is well in the
N.L. Central. The question I can’t answer is what has happened to J.A. Happ
with the Pirates? He had a golden opportunity to excel at Seattle, a great
pitchers park and even more so for a lefty, but he did nothing exceptional. His
last 6 starts for the Mariners he scored an unimpressive average of 60 on my
scale, and 4 of those were in pitchers parks. Suddenly with the Pirates his
first 6 he has scored an average of 72.7, and 4 of those 6 have been in hitters
parks. Maybe he is ingesting something we are unaware of, or possibly is just
happier back in the Midwest, close to his home state of Illinois. Whatever it
is both he and the Pirates are very happy about it and they should keep right
on rolling versus the far weaker Sampson and an offense that is not scaring any
lefty these days.
BOL
Key, I live in the same area as Jim Leyland and see him a couple of times a month. I asked him about Happ's turnaround and he attributed it strictly to Ray Searage.
The Cubs have not given up on catching the Pirates
and the Pirates have not given up catching the Cardinals. All is well in the
N.L. Central. The question I can’t answer is what has happened to J.A. Happ
with the Pirates? He had a golden opportunity to excel at Seattle, a great
pitchers park and even more so for a lefty, but he did nothing exceptional. His
last 6 starts for the Mariners he scored an unimpressive average of 60 on my
scale, and 4 of those were in pitchers parks. Suddenly with the Pirates his
first 6 he has scored an average of 72.7, and 4 of those 6 have been in hitters
parks. Maybe he is ingesting something we are unaware of, or possibly is just
happier back in the Midwest, close to his home state of Illinois. Whatever it
is both he and the Pirates are very happy about it and they should keep right
on rolling versus the far weaker Sampson and an offense that is not scaring any
lefty these days.
BOL
Key, I live in the same area as Jim Leyland and see him a couple of times a month. I asked him about Happ's turnaround and he attributed it strictly to Ray Searage.
Key: You'd better be right on these Pittsburgh bums.I went to hit $55 at -1.5 and somehow I ended up with a $555 RL ticket on these fukking bums.SON-OF-A-girl-FROM-HELL-THATS-THE-WAY-IT-CAME-OUT
then hedge out the extra you moron
Fuck that. Let it ride
0
Quote Originally Posted by RAID187:
Quote Originally Posted by TheGoldenGoose:
Key: You'd better be right on these Pittsburgh bums.I went to hit $55 at -1.5 and somehow I ended up with a $555 RL ticket on these fukking bums.SON-OF-A-girl-FROM-HELL-THATS-THE-WAY-IT-CAME-OUT
Goose, you have been around a long time and didn't need to be told you could hedge out. The question is, what did you do? We are all probably curious about that.
jstaley - I appreciate the concern and understand where you are coming from, and there is an element of wisdom there, but the numbers I have on probability justify the RL play and regardless of recent results every play must stand on its own merits. Believe me, it wasn't easy to pull the trigger.
Now and then even a BLIND squirrel can find an acorn
0
Goose, you have been around a long time and didn't need to be told you could hedge out. The question is, what did you do? We are all probably curious about that.
jstaley - I appreciate the concern and understand where you are coming from, and there is an element of wisdom there, but the numbers I have on probability justify the RL play and regardless of recent results every play must stand on its own merits. Believe me, it wasn't easy to pull the trigger.
Goose, you have been around a long time and didn't need to be told you could hedge out. The question is, what did you do? We are all probably curious about that.
jstaley - I appreciate the concern and understand where you are coming from, and there is an element of wisdom there, but the numbers I have on probability justify the RL play and regardless of recent results every play must stand on its own merits. Believe me, it wasn't easy to pull the trigger.
Fair enough, for what it is worth, as said, I think your chances are good at hitting it.... BOL to you
0
Quote Originally Posted by KeyElement:
Goose, you have been around a long time and didn't need to be told you could hedge out. The question is, what did you do? We are all probably curious about that.
jstaley - I appreciate the concern and understand where you are coming from, and there is an element of wisdom there, but the numbers I have on probability justify the RL play and regardless of recent results every play must stand on its own merits. Believe me, it wasn't easy to pull the trigger.
Fair enough, for what it is worth, as said, I think your chances are good at hitting it.... BOL to you
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