Money Ball ALCS Gm #3, 10/13/2014

10/13

5-2, +$546.04

Royals, FG, +100 (Chen / Guthrie) $215 to win $221.45

BOL

Fact Check

Royals are now 6-0 in the playoffs, 4-0 on the road, and return home to a crowd that is in love with them and will not go home early as their boys are never out of it.

Wei Chen

Buck might as well have asked Ned to loan him Bruce Chen for this start. Wei hasn’t beaten a good lefty hitting team most of the year and simply does not have the credentials to play “stopper” on the road versus a good lefty hitting team. The Tigers whopped him for 5 earned runs on 7 hits with two dingers in only 3.2 innings. His team went on to win the game but he made absolutely no positive contribution and they had to do for him what they did all year; get him off the hook with offense versus a pathetic bullpen.

Jeremy Guthrie

A guy I am not crazy about either, but at least I have the “old pro” aspect on my side and he was a contributor as the Royals came down the stretch. He would not have been my choice here but of course I don’t contend I am a better manager than Yost, a rarity on Covers, since almost everyone is a better manager than any of the guys that are hired to do it.

Royals Offense

This may be where Showalter makes his biggest mistake. Chen is not only a sub par lefty but the Royals went 24-21 versus lefty starters for the season and came down the stretch 13-5, establishing an offensive e.r.a. of 4.74 per nine. Any wonder they have dealt Britton and Matusz fits?

Orioles Offense

Good offense, no problem there, but they have not proven their regular season success, especially against a great bullpen, can carry over to the playoffs. They clobbered the Tigers pen but the Royals pen and late inning defense is whole different animal.

The money angle

I will forever love the population density and disposable gambling funds of the East Coast, especially the Northeast, that simply can not believe the second place team is the Central Division is better than the first place team in the A.L. East. They distort the odds in my favor very, very often. I expected a no play again today when the Royals opened at -113, but at even money you gotta be kidding me.

Final note

Betting against a 6-0 streak versus an 0-2 streak has never been considered wise by those that actually know what they are doing.

BOL

Royals, FG, +100 (Chen / Guthrie) $215 to win $215.00

Correction

Wouldn't want one of the bashers to see an editing error

I think I like this Game too cause when KC should win they do. 

& When Baltimore should win they don't in this series this is the trend that I see. Good Luck