Final Regular Season YTD 2012: 363-369-37, +245.87 Units, 6.72% ROI
2012 Playoffs: 8-5-2, +8.95 Units
All Plays Are 5 Units, FLAT, Do NOT “add the juice”
Tigers F5 +135, FG +134 (Sanchez / Kuroda)
I expected to see the Yankees open as a short favorite and was a little surprised when Pinnacle started the show at -136, a little high in my opinion, but very high at the current BetOnline top of -144. That requires a win probability of 59% to break even and I just don’t see it. According to my numbers the Tigers need a 42.7% win probability and that seems more likely. Much will be spoken and written today about the loss of Jeter for the Yankees, so here is my two bits worth. The loss of captain Jeter is not nearly as significant as the loss of lead off Jeter. These guys are mature professionals, they can live without a captain on the field, their jobs remain the same and they know how to do them. On a team struggling to score runs though, a rock solid lead off man leaves a heck of hole right up front. I suppose some people will be of the opinion that the injury will bring the team together and others will step up to the task. Possible, but there is no way to know for sure and it is just as likely their struggles continue or get worse. Sanchez is undervalued by the home team Yankee loving bettors and is a quality choice to start this game, versus Kuroda or any other Yankee starter other than Sabathia. Scherzer would have been my personal choice, but it ain’t my job and I ain’t responsible for the results, so I will trust the Tigers brain trust to have made the right one. They have their reasons and are closer to the game than I am. I also like the fact that this is the fifth playoff game in five days for the Yankees and has an early start time. Too much value to pass.
BOL
Hot Forum Topics
