Money Ball WS Gm #1, 10-21-2014

10/21

6-3, +$558.94

Royals, FG, +100 (Bumgarner / Shields) $215 to win $260.15

BOL

Fact Check

Stats are what they are and everyone can read the same ones on multiple sites and draw their own conclusions. No problem, and with a five day break most of the stats have been chopped, diced, blended, puréed and sautéed about as much as is humanly possible. Too much time results in the same approach as the Stupid Bowl, where the entire universe needs two weeks to dissect every possible tidbit of information and another two weeks after to scrutinize and analyze what happened, even though there were only sixty minutes of play involved and most people that watched saw with their own eyes what happened.

So, what is there about this game and/or series that has not been posted and discussed? Well, both SABRmetric and traditional stat users seldom, if ever, make adjustments for the differences in both leagues and parks. National League pitchers have a built in advantage in raw stats simply by not facing a DH in 90% of their starts. A further advantage is present for lefties on the West Coast, where prevailing winds and ballpark configurations favor lefties (of either team) in those parks. Most games involve at least two, sometimes three, automatic K’s versus opposing pitchers for NL starters, as well as detracting from the performance of the #8 and leadoff hitter after the first inning. Adjustments in true performance rankings and probabilities can be made, but other than yours truly how many handicappers do you know of that have either the good sense or methodology necessary?

A look at a few things I am absolutely sure no one has considered:

Interleague play: Royals 15-5, Giants 10-10

On the road in Interleague play: Royals 8-2, Giants 2-8

Royals-Shields, 3-0, 3.44 e.r.a.

Giants-Bumgarner, 1-2, 5.14 e.r.a.

Adjusted offensive probability, Royals flat at home versus lefty 40.4. Giants in A.L. Park, boosted for DH, versus righty 31.1.

Another note: Why are all the posters saying the Giants have won two World Series in the last five years? If you love them that much get it straight. They have won two World Series in the last FOUR years, since this year’s World Series has not yet been played. If they lose it is two in five and if they win it is three in five.

Small plays: Royals in 4, Royals in 6 and Royals in 7. Why no Royals in 5? Because if the series ends in 5 games the Giants will have had home field advantage 3-2 and gotten 2 starts from Bumgarner. I expect him to lose tonight, but back to back would be stretching the probability with the second start coming at home.

Surprise move of the series, and I can hardly wait for the bashing Ned Yost and I will get for the move, but it may be far smarter than you think. Danny Duffy will start game 3 or 4 at San Francisco.

"A look at a few things I am absolutely sure no one has considered"

because they're meaningless in the playoffs

Looks like most are on the Gints. Have to side with the Royals today!

Btw, how did you end up on the Beat the Streak? I had a high of 22 and a bunch of low double digit streaks. Nothing exciting.