Posted:
#1
10/21
6-3, +$558.94
Royals, FG, +100 (Bumgarner / Shields) $215 to win $260.15
BOL
Now and then even a BLIND squirrel can find an acorn
0
Money Ball WS Gm #1, 10-21-2014
Posted:
#2
Fact Check
Stats are
what they are and everyone can read the same ones on multiple sites and draw
their own conclusions. No problem, and with a five day break most of the stats
have been chopped, diced, blended, puréed and sautéed about as much as is
humanly possible. Too much time results in the same approach as the Stupid
Bowl, where the entire universe needs two weeks to dissect every possible
tidbit of information and another two weeks after to scrutinize and analyze
what happened, even though there were only sixty minutes of play involved and
most people that watched saw with their own eyes what happened.
So, what is
there about this game and/or series that has not been posted and discussed? Well,
both SABRmetric and traditional stat users seldom, if ever, make adjustments
for the differences in both leagues and parks. National League pitchers have a
built in advantage in raw stats simply by not facing a DH in 90% of their
starts. A further advantage is present for lefties on the West Coast, where
prevailing winds and ballpark configurations favor lefties (of either team) in
those parks. Most games involve at least two, sometimes three, automatic K’s
versus opposing pitchers for NL starters, as well as detracting from the
performance of the #8 and leadoff hitter after the first inning. Adjustments in
true performance rankings and probabilities can be made, but other than yours
truly how many handicappers do you know of that have either the good sense or
methodology necessary?
A look at a
few things I am absolutely sure no one has considered:
Interleague
play: Royals 15-5, Giants 10-10
On the road
in Interleague play: Royals 8-2, Giants 2-8
Royals-Shields,
3-0, 3.44 e.r.a.
Giants-Bumgarner,
1-2, 5.14 e.r.a.
Adjusted
offensive probability, Royals flat at home versus lefty 40.4. Giants in
Another
note: Why are all the posters saying the Giants have won two World Series in
the last five years? If you love them that much get it straight. They have won
two World Series in the last FOUR years, since this year’s World Series has not
yet been played. If they lose it is two in five and if they win it is three in
five.
Small
plays: Royals in 4, Royals in 6 and Royals in 7. Why no Royals in 5? Because if
the series ends in 5 games the Giants will have had home field advantage 3-2
and gotten 2 starts from Bumgarner. I expect him to lose tonight, but back to
back would be stretching the probability with the second start coming at home.
Surprise
move of the series, and I can hardly wait for the bashing Ned Yost and I will
get for the move, but it may be far smarter than you think. Danny Duffy will
start game 3 or 4 at
Now and then even a BLIND squirrel can find an acorn
0
Posted:
#10
Quote Originally Posted by smarterthanyou:
Just curious. Does that mean all the stats, trends, history, opinions and other garbage folks are using to justify the Giants are also meaningless? If so, then my confidence in the Royals goes up even more."A look at a few things I am absolutely sure no one has considered"
because they're meaningless in the playoffs
Now and then even a BLIND squirrel can find an acorn
0
Posted:
#15
Quote Originally Posted by KeyElement:
Just curious. Does that mean all the stats, trends, history, opinions and other garbage folks are using to justify the Giants are also meaningless? If so, then my confidence in the Royals goes up even more.
Just curious. Does that mean all the stats, trends, history, opinions and other garbage folks are using to justify the Giants are also meaningless? If so, then my confidence in the Royals goes up even more.
All stats are just marketing ploys to justify gambling angles.
There is no 100% cappers in the world
0
Posted:
#20
Quote Originally Posted by tinfoils:
About the same story, maybe a little less, but they never got scared they would have to write me a check, lol.Looks like most are on the Gints. Have to side with the Royals today! 
Btw, how did you end up on the Beat the Streak? I had a high of 22 and a bunch of low double digit streaks. Nothing exciting.
Now and then even a BLIND squirrel can find an acorn
0
Posted:
#23
I respect the work you put in....more than anyone here at covers. Have to point out that some of these stats are really meaningless when it comes to the postseason. What's past isn't necessarily prologue.
For instance. Looking at the Royals "dominant" interleague record vs the Giants pedestrian interleague record in 2014.
In 2012 SF was 7-8 vs the AL while DET was 11-7 vs the NL. We know how that turned out.
In 2010 SF was 7-8 against the AL while TEX was a remarkable 14-4 vs the NL. We know how that turned out.
0
Posted:
#24
There was a poster on here by the name of Key Element that hated the drama of losing with bullpens,so he went with 1st 5 betting and was successful.I'm following that guys lead and taking KC +100 1st 5 and if i have to settle for a PUSH after 5 innings.So let it be written, so let it be done.
There is no 100% cappers in the world
0
Hot Forum Topics
