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#1
Phillies @ Rockies: Kyle Kendrick probably salvaged his rotation spot with his last start, a smoke-and-mirrors shutout in beating the Cards. Every single Cardinals runner was stranded against Kendrick in that game (Kendrick's usual strand rate is below 70%). This is a Triple-A pitcher throwing in the Bigs.
The Rockies send out Greg Smith, who's starting this game only because of injuries to much better pitchers (like De La Rosa).
Gentleman, start your bats: Way OVER the total of 11 and Rockies to win.
Braves @ Brewers: In sharp contrast to the later (COL-PHI) contest, we'll see a pair of Major League pitchers here, one being among the Top 10 in all of baseball. Tommy Hanson comes off a horrible (for him) start, where he simply clearly didn't have his pitches. It happens. Which pitches? Pick your poison: Hanson can come at batters equally well with a 92-94 MPH fastball, a slider, a curve, and a changeup. He's especially tough against righties. The Brew Crew leads the NL in OPS and runs scored, but when push comes to shove, it's historically and generally pitching that wins.
Milwaukee sends out Doug Davis, who's much better than his surface stats--especially that horrid ERA--would indicate. But because of an unusually high hit and strand pct, he looks awfully bad on paper. Atlanta batters, meanwhile, have an NL-worst .592 OPS vs lefties, with just 4 homers in 301 AB. Moreover, they'll likely be missing Jason Heyward until Tuesday (lineups have not yet been posted as of this writing). Davis doesn't figure to go beyond 5 IP, though.
I like UNDER the 8.5 total here. If I had to pick a side, it'd be Atlanta.
The Rockies send out Greg Smith, who's starting this game only because of injuries to much better pitchers (like De La Rosa).
Gentleman, start your bats: Way OVER the total of 11 and Rockies to win.
Braves @ Brewers: In sharp contrast to the later (COL-PHI) contest, we'll see a pair of Major League pitchers here, one being among the Top 10 in all of baseball. Tommy Hanson comes off a horrible (for him) start, where he simply clearly didn't have his pitches. It happens. Which pitches? Pick your poison: Hanson can come at batters equally well with a 92-94 MPH fastball, a slider, a curve, and a changeup. He's especially tough against righties. The Brew Crew leads the NL in OPS and runs scored, but when push comes to shove, it's historically and generally pitching that wins.
Milwaukee sends out Doug Davis, who's much better than his surface stats--especially that horrid ERA--would indicate. But because of an unusually high hit and strand pct, he looks awfully bad on paper. Atlanta batters, meanwhile, have an NL-worst .592 OPS vs lefties, with just 4 homers in 301 AB. Moreover, they'll likely be missing Jason Heyward until Tuesday (lineups have not yet been posted as of this writing). Davis doesn't figure to go beyond 5 IP, though.
I like UNDER the 8.5 total here. If I had to pick a side, it'd be Atlanta.
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