can somebody help me out, I don't have computer right now...can you guys go on ESPN.com and check the last 10 game log of these 2 pitcher and find out how runs was scores in 1st
This would be very helpful and appreciated
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To remove first post, remove entire topic.
Leaning M's/A's
can somebody help me out, I don't have computer right now...can you guys go on ESPN.com and check the last 10 game log of these 2 pitcher and find out how runs was scores in 1st
HOLD ON! FYI, troylex300 - love your thread - read it EVERY day!
You guys doing the MATH completely wrong.
Davis/Liriano. Chance of a run (based solely on MATH of last 10 games) is: 1-.7*.8 = 0.44. Morsco/Vargas is 1-.6*.66 = 0.60. I DO NOT think 10 game log MATH is the "right' way to handicap these - but it's a datapoint - and at least if you using it, let's do MATH right as 37% and 25% are 100% WRONG calculations. Ask any stats teacher or look up to see why you gotta to multiply inverses and subtract from 1 as opposed to add to get right number.
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HOLD ON! FYI, troylex300 - love your thread - read it EVERY day!
You guys doing the MATH completely wrong.
Davis/Liriano. Chance of a run (based solely on MATH of last 10 games) is: 1-.7*.8 = 0.44. Morsco/Vargas is 1-.6*.66 = 0.60. I DO NOT think 10 game log MATH is the "right' way to handicap these - but it's a datapoint - and at least if you using it, let's do MATH right as 37% and 25% are 100% WRONG calculations. Ask any stats teacher or look up to see why you gotta to multiply inverses and subtract from 1 as opposed to add to get right number.
FYI, adding ALMOST never is right solution - yet everyone does it all time.
Take this example, NFL average is 20 points per team per game. Let's say IND scores 30 and gives up 30 (great offense, terrible defense). Let's say NYG score 22 and give up 22 (slightly better than avg offense, and slightly worse than avg defense. Lot of people add and divide and say projected score is 26-26 so O/U should be 52. HAHA. If IND scores 30 vs NFL avg - they are playing worse than avg defense so they should score more than 30 (we can argue if it's linear or geometric increase but it's ABOVE 30). And if NE scores 22 against NFL then if they play IND they will score more than 22 for sure - so 0/U has to be ABOVE 52 (by a handful of points). But simple adding gets it wrong. In this case - adding and subtracting medians is *probably* best solution to calculate.
Hope this helps. I don't know much about baseball, but I do understand odds/math so will try to pipe in more when I can on that topic.
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FYI, adding ALMOST never is right solution - yet everyone does it all time.
Take this example, NFL average is 20 points per team per game. Let's say IND scores 30 and gives up 30 (great offense, terrible defense). Let's say NYG score 22 and give up 22 (slightly better than avg offense, and slightly worse than avg defense. Lot of people add and divide and say projected score is 26-26 so O/U should be 52. HAHA. If IND scores 30 vs NFL avg - they are playing worse than avg defense so they should score more than 30 (we can argue if it's linear or geometric increase but it's ABOVE 30). And if NE scores 22 against NFL then if they play IND they will score more than 22 for sure - so 0/U has to be ABOVE 52 (by a handful of points). But simple adding gets it wrong. In this case - adding and subtracting medians is *probably* best solution to calculate.
Hope this helps. I don't know much about baseball, but I do understand odds/math so will try to pipe in more when I can on that topic.
Let's say it was 5 scores in last 10 games. And it was 5 scores in last 10 game. Then you can't add and say its 50%. Since it's 50% just in the top half of 1st. It turns out to be 25%/75%.
Or let's say it was 5 scores in last 10 games. And it was 0 scores in last 10 games. Then you can't add and say its 25%. B/c it's really 50% - just whatever happens in top of 1st is answer - since there wouldn't be score in bottom.
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Another way to think about it Bet2Cover.
Let's say it was 5 scores in last 10 games. And it was 5 scores in last 10 game. Then you can't add and say its 50%. Since it's 50% just in the top half of 1st. It turns out to be 25%/75%.
Or let's say it was 5 scores in last 10 games. And it was 0 scores in last 10 games. Then you can't add and say its 25%. B/c it's really 50% - just whatever happens in top of 1st is answer - since there wouldn't be score in bottom.
Not trying to hate on anyone - as I said Troy I LOVE your work.
I just hate it when people do wrong math. It's hard enough to *handicap* this stuff, let's at least get the math 100% accurate when we have a strong view so we make sure we are making accurate/correct bet.
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Not trying to hate on anyone - as I said Troy I LOVE your work.
I just hate it when people do wrong math. It's hard enough to *handicap* this stuff, let's at least get the math 100% accurate when we have a strong view so we make sure we are making accurate/correct bet.
I've always struggled with math, and I believe what you're saying is correct, do you have a formula then to figure out the chances of a run scored in the 1st inning like what Troy has been doing. for example something any of us can use filling in the formula?
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I've always struggled with math, and I believe what you're saying is correct, do you have a formula then to figure out the chances of a run scored in the 1st inning like what Troy has been doing. for example something any of us can use filling in the formula?
Yeah baby! Way to go Troy. Locked it in. Good call. Close but we got the cash and don't have to wait eight more innings. You need to invest in an iPhone and Internet service. I never need a pc anymore I always use my phone. Worth the investment a's you can pull up any info needed where ever you are.
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Yeah baby! Way to go Troy. Locked it in. Good call. Close but we got the cash and don't have to wait eight more innings. You need to invest in an iPhone and Internet service. I never need a pc anymore I always use my phone. Worth the investment a's you can pull up any info needed where ever you are.
can somebody help me out, I don't have computer right now...can you guys go on ESPN.com and check the last 10 game log of these 2 pitcher and find out how runs was scores in 1st
This would be very helpful and appreciated
Like this play Troy, alot.
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Quote Originally Posted by troylex300:
Leaning M's/A's
can somebody help me out, I don't have computer right now...can you guys go on ESPN.com and check the last 10 game log of these 2 pitcher and find out how runs was scores in 1st
I've always struggled with math, and I believe what you're saying is correct, do you have a formula then to figure out the chances of a run scored in the 1st inning like what Troy has been doing. for example something any of us can use filling in the formula?
LoL! Awesome cat avatar, Tayos.
That shit made me laugh right when I saw it.
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Quote Originally Posted by Tayos:
I've always struggled with math, and I believe what you're saying is correct, do you have a formula then to figure out the chances of a run scored in the 1st inning like what Troy has been doing. for example something any of us can use filling in the formula?
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